Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
With publish positions drawn and Preakness Stakes odds now on the betting board, the inevitable annual query stays: Will a Triple Crown be gained this 12 months?
It’s all on Mystik Dan’s hearty horse shoulders in the mean time. And the Kentucky Derby winner isn’t the favourite Saturday at Pimlico in Baltimore.
Mystik Dan is the second alternative behind Muth, who didn’t run within the Kentucky Derby.
“Mystik Dan is a superb horse, coming off a dynamite win. But Muth is better-rested,” mentioned Paul Zilm, a horse racing oddsmaker who’s been across the thoroughbred business for 20 years.
Zilm helps break down odds to win the Preakness Stakes, as horse racing gears up for the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Beating Bob Baffert
Part of the tough calculus for Mystik Dan jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and coach Kenny McPeek is going through off in opposition to the Bob Baffert-trained Muth, with jockey Juan Hernandez within the saddle.
Baffert is beneath suspension from Churchill Downs and, subsequently, couldn’t subject a Derby horse. But he’s received the 5/2 favourite Muth able to roll at Pimlico. And Muth is certainly contemporary.
He final ran within the March 30 Arkansas Derby, profitable the 1 1/8-mile race. Mystik Dan was in that race, as nicely, taking third behind fellow Kentucky Derby entrant Just Steel. Baffert has since been biding his time with Muth.
“Mystik Dan is coming off a tricky race, a tough race,” Zilm mentioned of the three-horse picture end on the Kentucky Derby, during which the colt edged Sierra Leone and Forever Young. “He expended lots of power, and he’ll have simply two weeks’ relaxation.
“Muth is a horse who’s actually good and didn’t must undergo that grind. It’s been six weeks since Muth’s final race. The freshness of Muth may prevail.”
Zilm spent 5 years at Circa Sports, leaving in March after serving to craft Kentucky Derby odds. He identified that Mystik Dan has run on two weeks’ relaxation as soon as, profitable a 5½-furlong race — which is about three-quarters of a mile — on Nov. 12, then taking fifth in a 1-mile occasion Nov. 25.
“It’s a small pattern dimension. But within the one alternative to run again so rapidly, Mystik Dan didn’t race very nicely,” Zilm mentioned.
On The Plus Side
That mentioned, the actual fact stays that Mystik Dan gained the Kentucky Derby at 16/1 odds, topping 19 different horses within the first jewel of the Triple Crown. As the 5/2 second alternative in Preakness odds, he’s proper on Muth’s hooves.
Mystik Dan drew the No. 5 publish on Monday, and Muth is true subsequent to him, breaking from the fourth gate. And it’s solely a nine-horse subject.
“You’ve received the Derby winner and two different horses from the Derby and a bunch of latest shooters,” Zilm mentioned. “Oftentimes, if the Derby winner is a standout horse, the Preakness is the simpler of the final two legs to win. In the Belmont, you’ll have horses that ran the Derby, then received a full 5 weeks of relaxation, ganging up on you.”
Zilm has a excessive opinion of each Mystik Dan and Muth, although he believes the appropriate horse is atop the oddsboard to win the Preakness.
“If Muth would’ve been within the Derby, he’d have most likely been the second alternative, behind Fierceness,” Zilm mentioned. “Bob Baffert, like him or not, is aware of get horses prepared.
“Muth and Mystik Dan are clearly the 2 favorites, and so they’re proper subsequent to one another. So, hopefully, these two get a clear break and a superb race.”
Zilm sees the chances between the 2 tightening between now and Saturday’s 6:50 p.m. ET publish.
“I wouldn’t be stunned if Muth is 9/5 and Mystik Dan is 2/1,” he mentioned.
Others Worth Watching
At 6/1, the co-third alternative in Preakness odds is Catching Freedom, who took fourth within the Kentucky Derby. As it seems, Catching Freedom drew the third publish, so he’ll break from simply inside Muth and Mystik Dan.
“He’ a horse you’ll be able to’t low cost. If [trainer] Brad Cox is selecting to run him again, then he have to be coaching good,” Zilm mentioned.
Then there’s a brand new shooter in Tuscan Gold. The colt gained a 1-mile occasion at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 31, then ran third to winner Catching Freedom and Honor Marie within the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby on March 23.
“Tuscan Gold is like Muth. He didn’t run within the Kentucky Derby, so he’s a contemporary horse,” Zilm mentioned. “His pace figures to place him in sort of the identical caliber because the higher horses within the Preakness. And coach Chad Brown has completed nicely with horses that didn’t run within the Kentucky Derby.
“He’s a horse that would enhance and perhaps win at a pleasant value. I’ve seen just a few individuals I respect say they like Tuscan Gold. If you’ll be able to lock him in at higher odds early within the week, I definitely wouldn’t be against that.”
Tuscan Gold is the 8/1 fifth option to win the Preakness.
What About Bob’s Other Horse
Then there’s Imagination, one other Baffert-trained thoroughbred. Therefore, Imagination additionally couldn’t run the Kentucky Derby, resulting from Baffert’s suspension. But the colt joins Catching Freedom because the 6/1 co-third alternative in odds to win the Preakness.
“Imagination will most likely appeal to some consideration, as nicely,” Zilm mentioned. “I don’t suppose he’s nearly as good as Muth, however you’ll be able to’t ignore him. He’s rested, as nicely.”
Imagination gained the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes on March 3 and ran second to Stronghold within the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby on April 6.
“I don’t suppose Baffert reveals up in Baltimore simply to be within the race. I’m positive he’s received a sense each his horses can do nicely. Imagination isn’t just going alongside for the trip,” Zilm mentioned.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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