The Elfstedentocht route runs over 200 kilometers through eleven Frisian towns. The race is a national treasure in the Netherlands – but the chances of holding it are dwindling with climate change. The organizers still don’t give up.
There would only be more Dutch cliché if tulips bloomed in winter: participants in the Elfstedentocht 1997.
Imago
An account on X (formerly Twitter) has been broadcasting the same three letters once a day for eleven years: “Nope.” That doesn’t seem very exciting. But it is the answer to an important question that concerns many Dutch people in winter: Is it cold enough for the Elfstedentocht to take place?
The Elfstedentocht is a 200 kilometer long ice skating race in the north of the Netherlands. It leads over canals and small lakes through eleven Frisian towns with historical town charter. The course goes past windmills and farmhouses with thatched roofs, through pretty old towns and under bridges – only there would be more Dutch clichés if tulips bloomed in winter.
The Elfstedentocht is a Dutch cultural asset. At the last event on January 4, 1997, 17,000 ice skaters took part in the competition, with the fastest completing the 200 kilometers in less than seven hours. 1.5 million people cheered on the athletes along the route – a popular festival. The Dutch therefore call the race “Daughter of Daughters”, the “Tour of all Tours”. Whoever wins the Elfstedentocht is a folk hero who will be talked about the triumph for the rest of his life.
27 years ago, 1.5 million cheered on the 17,000 ice skaters at the Elfstedentocht.
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It takes 15 centimeters of ice
But the organizers have a problem. For 27 years, the answer to the question of all questions has always been “No”. “No”: the weather is too warm, “No”: not enough thick ice. The latter must be at least 15 centimeters thick to ensure safety. In January 2021 the conditions were finally perfect. But back then, for once, it wasn’t the weather that was responsible for the “Nope”, but the pandemic.
Not just since the edition was canceled due to Corona, more and more Dutch people have been wondering whether “No” will soon turn into “Never again”. Because of climate change. According to researchers’ calculations, in order for the ice on the canals to become thick enough, temperatures of a maximum of minus 10 degrees are needed for two weeks; ideally without snowfall. So a lot has to come together for the Elfstedentocht to rise. That’s why there were only 15 races in 125 years.
In 2019, meteorologists from the Dutch Weather Service examined how the probability of an Elfstedentocht has changed. According to the study, a hundred years ago this was twenty percent; today it is eight percent. If humanity limits global warming to two degrees above pre-industrial levels, the probability will settle at five percent in the coming years, the scientists write. If that doesn’t work, the chance of a race by 2050 drops to one percent.
Through 11 Frisian cities in the Netherlands
1
Leeuwarden (Start / Soul)
When it gets cold, euphoria breaks out in the Netherlands
Wiebe Wieling ignores probabilities. Otherwise he wouldn’t be able to do his job. Wieling is the president of the “Koninklijke Vereniging de Friesche Elf Steden”, the royal association of the eleven Frisian cities. This is responsible for the organization of the Elfstedentocht.
Every winter, Wieling and his helpers organize a mass event with everything that goes with it: transport, accommodation, medical supplies, food and routing. They regularly measure the ice thickness at various points. There is a 500-page guide with all the points that the organizers need to consider. Everything should be ready by Christmas at the latest, planned down to the last detail. “We want to take advantage of the opportunity for an Elfstedentocht if the conditions are finally right,” Wieling told the BBC.
He and his colleagues are hoping for a high pressure area over Scandinavia that will last two weeks. In this weather it gets bitterly cold in North Frisia. Once the temperatures drop to the required level, euphoria breaks out in the Netherlands. The National Weather Service publishes daily bulletins, and the media sends reporters to the channels who bring images of the condition of the ice into people’s homes.
Wieling and the other organizers remain calm in such times, as the recent past has taught them. “We don’t get euphoric when it’s cold for a week. We know what can happen,” he says. Because it is clear to Wieling that all the plans will end up in the wastebasket when the first heat breaks at the latest. “Of course it’s frustrating,” he says. But he accepted that the chances of a race were slim.
The start of the Elfstedentocht takes place in the early hours of the morning in Leeuwarden, and the last runners are expected to cross the finish line at midnight at the same location.
YOU/Imagination
An Olympic champion swims the Elfstedentocht
Out of necessity, various alternative events have emerged over the past decades. There has been an ice skating race on Lake Weissensee in Carinthia since 1989. Thousands of Dutch people travel to Austria for this event.
There has been a cycle tour for over a hundred years, which takes place every Whit Monday along the Elfstedentocht route, with 15,000 participants. Rowers have also gotten a taste for it and have been completing the course during Ascension Week since 1985.
Five years ago, the swimmer Maarten van der Weijden caused a stir. He won Olympic gold in the 10-kilometer open water swimming event in Beijing in 2008. He completed the Elfstedentocht swimming in 2019. Van der Weijden, who suffered from leukemia in his youth, took four days to do this and collected money for cancer research.
These alternative events will remain the case for the time being. It is unlikely that the Elfstedentocht will be held this winter. It will be around 10 degrees warm at the start location in Leeuwarden in the coming days. And it’s supposed to rain.
In 2019, Maarten van der Weijden needed four days to swim the Elfstedentocht route.
Vincent Jannink / ANP / EPA