Rome, 6 May 2022 – All eyes on Monday, 9 maggiowhen will be celebrated the 77th anniversary of the end of Second World War in Russia. It is almost certain that contrary to the Kremlin’s original plans, Monday will not be the “new” Victory Day: initially this day was indicated to the Russian soldiers as the end of the war. The grandiose celebrations envisioned by Putin have been significantly downsized: the military parades planned in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and in the city of Mariupol were canceled because “for now they are not possible”, according to the first deputy head of the Russian presidential administration, Sergey Kiriyenkoeven though he is convinced that “the time will come”. The Moscow paradeinstead, it will be held, and the “participation” of 500 Ukrainian prisoners according to the NGO Gulagu.net. The organization claims the Kremlin is considering the possibility, and will make a decision by May 6. Similar hypotheses also came from Kiev: “Russia intends to have our citizens parading in the parade of May 9 in Mariupol as prisoners”, wrote the commissioner for human rights of the Ukrainian Parliament, Lyudmila Denisova, on Telegram. Today the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, did not confirm whether the city will be the scene of one of the parades, adding that “for obvious reasons” it is impossible to imagine a large-scale celebration. According to Western officials and analysts, “the Kremlin is determined to reach some sort of milestone by May 9”. “After more than two months of uncertain performance of his vaunted army and heavy losses in Ukraine, they say, Putin needs something to prove for the enormous cost of the war in human life and wealth.”
What is celebrated on May 9th?
May 9 is an important date in the Russian calendar: that day in [1945Nazi Germany surrendered, ending the Second World War. Since then in Russia it is remembered only as “Victory Day”. During the existence of the USSR it was celebrated throughout the eastern bloc; after its fall, the 1990s were characterized by much more modest celebrations. The tradition of the great military parade on Moscow’s Red Square was picked up by Vladimir Putin in 2008, as it represents an opportunity for the Kremlin to flex its muscles to the world and rekindle domestic patriotism.
The “liturgy” of the celebrations in Moscow
The president, also commander-in-chief of the army, after the official opening of the ceremony led by the Minister of Defense, Serghei Shoigu, holds the traditional speech from the tribune set up near the mausoleo on Lenin among war veterans, this year without any foreign leaders. There parata will start at 10 local time (9 in Italy) and will be broadcast live across Russia. According to Bloomberg’s calculations, the military show will be smaller than in 2021: less hardware and fewer troops. This year 11 thousand people will parade in 33 marching columns: among the participants there are officers, sergeants, soldiers, cadets, members of the Yunarmiya youth movement, units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Russian National Guard and border agents of the FSB. Also involved 131 units of armaments and equipment, 77 planes and helicopters. The mechanized column will include 131 vehicles: the first to enter is the legendary T-34 tank, the backbone of the Soviet armored forces during World War II, followed by, among others, the T-14 Armata tanks and defense systems overhead S-400. For the first time, the modern 122 mm Tornado-G multiple rocket launcher systems also arrive. On the other hand, the presence of more modern tanks such as the T-80BVM, nor the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile system is not foreseen. The airshow will, like last year, feature 77 aircraft including Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers, fifth-generation Su-57 fighters, as well as attack and transport helicopters. After several years, Il-80, also called “doomsday plane“, designed to house the high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation in the event of a nuclear war. Eight MiG-29SMT fighters will take off to form the”Z‘, became symbol of support for the “special operation” in Ukraine. In addition, 6 Su-25 attack aircraft will color the sky with the tricolor of the Russian national flag.
Putin’s possible announcement
The date has been brought up on multiple occasions over the past few months: it would initially have been the day indicated to Russian soldiers as expected end of the war; today, on the other hand, according to the intelligence services of the countries that support the government in Kiev, Russia would intend on 9 May declare a “full-fledged war”. At the moment Moscow considers that in Ukraine not a real “war”, in fact, but a “special military operation”. Also, according to the advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs, Vadym Denisenko, Putin could Monday announce the annexation of the territories temporarily employed in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson e Zaporizhzhia. In Zaporizhzhia the curfew all day on Monday. This was announced by the mayor of the city, Anatolii Kurtiev, explaining that the decision was made for fear of a major Russian offensive. Meanwhile, the assault on the steel mill continues Azovstal, despite Russian declarations that they only want to “isolate” it. According to British intelligence, the “renewed Russian effort to capture Azovstal and complete the capture of Mariupol it is probably linked to the upcoming Victory Day celebrations, and to Putin’s desire to have symbolic success in Ukraine. ”