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Inter-Milan, the second leg derby of the UEFA Champions League semi-finals, as well as the last meeting of the season between the two teams, will be played tonight at 9pm, again at the Meazza stadium in Milan, but in home of Inter, i.e. with an overwhelming majority of Inter fans. First leg, played last Wednesday in home of Milan, Inter won 2-0 thus obtaining a significant advantage: tonight Milan need to win at least with a two-goal difference in the ninety minutes to even the score and send the match to extra time and possibly penalties, or three to reverse the result.
The first Champions League finalist will come out of the sixth Euroderby in Milan in the last twenty years, a goal that alone is worth a whole season and which until a few months ago seemed unattainable for both. Inter have not played in a Champions League final since 2010, when they won it in Madrid against Bayern Munich; Milan, on the other hand, has been missing for sixteen years, when they won it for the last time in Athens against Liverpool. In any case, an Italian team will return to the Champions League final after six years and will play it against the winner of Manchester City-Real Madrid (1-1 first leg).
Inter are in an advantageous position, but the greatest risks now arise precisely from this advantage. A week ago he won clearly, putting Milan in difficulty throughout the game, alternating phases of great pressure in attack, especially with wingers and midfielders, with defensive retreats. However, his dominance on the pitch was not completely transformed into the result: he scored two goals but with greater precision he could have scored more.
What Inter “left” on the pitch in the first leg is what keeps the match open in the second leg. For Milan, two goals to recover are a lot, and moreover against a team in great form and stronger on paper, but the weak points of this Inter are precisely the inconsistency in the performance and the management of the result: a goal scored or conceded in the first few minutes, for example, could greatly affect the progress of the match.
In the last week, Milan has also leveraged this aspect, bringing it to their side: coach and team try to see the return as an opportunity to “make history” of the club through an improbable comeback, as well as as the last game of value this season. And it doesn’t matter if Saturday’s defeat in the league against the fourth from bottom in the standings wasn’t encouraging at all.
(Getty Images)
The defeat in the semi-final first leg was clear-cut and made worse by the lack of valid countermeasures to stop Inter (who won 4-2 against Sassuolo in the championship on Saturday). After a disastrous first half, Milan held the pitch better in the second half, but the attack was still unproductive, while Inter continued to get chances to score rather easily. The absence of Rafael Leao, their best attacking player, had weighed in the poor offensive performance of Milan, struggling with a muscle injury.
Leao will be there tonight, and even if he won’t be at his best, his presence on the pitch will make it a different game. In midfield, however, Ismael Bennacer, another owner considered essential for the team’s game mechanics, will be missing due to injury: he will be replaced by Brahim Diaz, who has been moved to the center of the trocar given the return of Leao on the wing. Inter, on the other hand, have the whole team available, as in the first leg, and should play with the same starting line-up.
Despite the net result of a week ago, two things in particular must be considered to complicate the forecasts and increase expectations for this return: that it is a Champions League semi-final, in which access to the continental final is therefore played, and on top of that a derby, an unpredictable game by definition.
The Milan derby has always had results, but particularly in recent years, that have changed the course of the seasons. In 2021 Inter won 3-0 in a derby played behind closed doors which directed them towards the Scudetto. A year later Milan took his revenge and as an underdog they came from behind and won a derby which then proved to be decisive for the assignment of the Scudetto, but in that second part of the season they were also beaten 3-0 in the second leg of the semi-finals of the Italian Cup, a trophy which then Inter went on to win.
Four have been played this season so far. The first, last September, was won by Milan, who however have always lost, even sharply, like a week ago and in the Super Cup played in January, which finished 3-0 for Inter. And five derbies in one season, more and more important, also mean sold out and record takings. The first leg of the semi-finals had exceeded 10 million euros in total takings; tonight’s one (which can be seen both on Sky and free-to-air on Canale 5) should go over 12 million and therefore become the match with the highest grossing in the history of Italian football.
– Read also: Why do we say “derby” in football?