The foreign ministers of the two countries met for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met in the Turkish city of Antalya on the morning of the 10th, Turkish time. The negotiations ended in a short period of time, and there was no agreement on the ceasefire. progress.
After the meeting, Kuleba said that he proposed a “24-hour ceasefire agreement” with Lavrov during the talks, but the two sides did not reach any consensus on the ceasefire. He pointed out that the Russian negotiators seemed to have no decision-making power, and the decision-making power rested with the Kremlin.
Kuleba reiterated that Ukraine will never give in and is ready to resolve it through diplomatic means. As long as Russia has no intention of resolving it peacefully through diplomacy, we will stand up and sacrifice ourselves to defend our land and people in the face of aggression.
In addition, Lavrov pointed out after the meeting that Putin does not object to meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss “specific” issues, “Putin did not refuse to meet with Zelensky, but in order to achieve this, we need to do some preliminary Work”.
Lavrov also said that he does not believe that Russia and the West will have a nuclear war because of the confrontation over Ukraine.
However, on March 9, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki warned that Russia may consider the use of biological weapons in Ukraine. It is believed that this is likely to refer to chemical weapons, although the term unconventional weapons also includes tactical nuclear weapons, biological weapons and dirty bombs.
The outside world noticed that just hours after it rejected Poland’s proposal to transfer MiG fighter jets to U.S. troops stationed in Germany, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the deployment of two Patriot missile defense systems in Poland.
The U.S. side said it was in response to the threat that the Russian military might pose to the U.S. and NATO. However, Taiwanese military expert Wu Mingjie analyzed on the program “Looking at Money in the Times” that the Patriot III has anti-missile capabilities, which means that the United States is preparing for Putin’s use of nuclear weapons. Once Russia launches an intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead or various Type cruise missiles, Patriot systems have the ability to intercept.
While the part about nuclear weapons remains only speculation and concern, evidence shows that Russia has begun using weapons of mass destruction, including cluster bombs and vacuum bombs.
It has been 15 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine’s military operations, and it has never won air supremacy, but it has lost 10% of its troops, that is, about 19,000 Russian casualties and 5% of equipment. The U.S. said that the Russian army has lost about 50 military vehicles, including tanks, every day since the start of the war.
Russian soldiers suffered heavy casualties, and many commanders were killed on the front line. In addition to several commanders previously reported, there was another report on the 9th that the commander of the Russian 33rd Independent Motorized Infantry Regiment Agakov (Yuri Agarkov was killed in the fighting, the news has been confirmed by Russian government officials. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Agakov was chief of staff of a paratrooper regiment stationed in Crimea. In addition, Konstantin Zizevsky, commander of the 247th Guards Commando Regiment (Paratroopers) of the Russian army, was also killed in southern Ukraine.
The 72nd Ukrainian Mechanized Infantry Brigade also announced on Facebook on the 10th that it had killed the Russian tank commander Andrei Zakharov. The brigade added that in 2016, when he was still a major, he was awarded a medal by Russian President Vladimir Putin for his contribution to the special mission in Syria. However, this news has not been officially confirmed by Russia.
In addition, the Strategic Communication Department of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also announced on the 10th that the 3rd Armored Company of the 102nd Infantry Regiment of the 150th Motorized Infantry Division of the Russian Army was severely beaten during the battle with the Ukrainian Army, and the entire company was almost destroyed. Captain Karpaev Alexandrovich was killed on the spot.
The 150th Motorized Infantry Division of the Russian Army was established in 2017. It has 2 chariot regiments, 2 infantry regiments, 1 artillery regiment and 1 air defense regiment. It has a special organization and has strong firepower and high mobility. He took up tasks such as defensive positions and guerrilla warfare, and at that time he was given the title of “Steel Monster”.
“BBC” reported on the 10th that the latest war situation announced by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine mentioned that the current advance of the Russian army in parts of Ukraine has slowed down, and the movement towards the capital has slowed down. The troops advancing in Kyiv were also pinned down.
The report pointed out that in the past two days, Ukrainian fighter jets and anti-aircraft missile units destroyed a total of 4 Russian Su-25 attack aircraft and 2 helicopters. At present, the Russian army has slowed down the attack speed, but the Russian army looted the number of people and deserters. increased substantially. At present, the “BBC” cannot independently verify the news announced by the Ukrainian army.
Ukraine made another “strange trick” on the 10th. The Ministry of Defense posted a picture on Twitter, saying that those citizens who assisted in the attack on the Russian logistics force destroyed many equipment. “The contribution is huge!”
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that after the attack on the logistics forces, the next goal was to make Russia “defensible”, so it listed all the relevant vehicles of the Russian military for electronic warfare, saying “We must see them, they cannot see us, no The army of intelligence is blind, and the military units without cover are ready to die!”
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense emphasized that such systems are expensive, and that it will take the Russian army a long time to fill the gap in equipment. “It’s time to launch a strike.”
The “Daily Mail” reported on the 9th that the Russian troops near the edge of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv stretched for 64 kilometers, including combat vehicles, armored vehicles, towed artillery and other logistics military vehicles. It still remains in place. The outside world suspected that the Russian army was stubbornly resisted by the Ukrainian army, which made it necessary to suspend and develop new strategies. At the same time, the Russian army was also bombed and had logistical problems, which made it impossible to continue to advance.
However, whether the war goes well depends on the weather. Recently, due to the influence of the cold peak in Eastern Europe, the temperature that was originally below zero Celsius may fall below minus 10 degrees Celsius. The somatosensory temperature of big cities such as Kyiv and Kharkov is even below zero. 20 degrees. In this regard, Kevin Price, a retired army major in the United Kingdom, analyzed that the Russian army has not fought for a long time, and even has no actual combat experience in polar warfare. If the temperature drops further, the chariot may become a “refrigerated cabinet made of 40 tons of heavy iron”; he also mentioned that, coupled with the problems of fuel and logistics shortages faced by the Russian army, it is even more impossible to start the engine warm-up, but if it does not In doing so, the temperature in the tank may become a freezer, forcing the Russian army to abandon the car and flee.
“Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency” posted on Facebook on the 10th that the polar vortex swept across, and the next 72 hours will be the coldest time since the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia, with many places approaching -10 degrees, especially the lowest point at the northeastern border between Ukraine and Russia It can even reach a low temperature of -20 degrees, which will be a very severe test; the temperature in this area is usually around 0 degrees in winter, and it will become colder when strong cold air moves south.
As soon as the article came out, many netizens discussed: “Come on, Ukraine”, “The soldiers on the Russian border are GG”, “The people of both countries are the most pitiful and innocent”, “Let God take action and end this war.”
Reuters earlier reported that after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there was news that the Russian government planned to impose martial law on the territory or ban men of school age from leaving the country. Although the news has been refuted by the Kremlin, some Russians do not want to risk staying at home and are trying to flee abroad.
A 29-year-old Russian youth moved back to Moscow from Western Europe a year ago. He bought a plane ticket to Istanbul and admitted that he might not return to Moscow. “I’m worried that tomorrow will be a military mobilization and I won’t be able to leave the country,” he said. “When I moved to Moscow a year ago, I never dreamed that it would be like hell now.”
Another 38-year-old Russian man said he managed to buy an expensive plane ticket to the Middle East. “I don’t want to be in this war, we’ve heard a lot of rumours and I don’t believe the Kremlin’s denials.”
In addition to the unhappiness of the war, anti-war anger is blooming in Russia. It was reported on the 9th that the Russian police arrested more than 13,000 people during anti-war demonstrations in 147 cities.
The next generation of wealthy business oligarchs and political elites also disagreed with the invasion of Ukraine. Maria Yumasheva, granddaughter of late President Boris Yeltsin, posted a photo of the Ukrainian flag on IG to express her anti-war stance, according to the New York Post. Maria’s fiancé, Fyodor Smolov, a striker for the Russian national football team, posted on IG that “the war must stop”.
However, Putin may not trouble the two of them, because the Russian media rumored that Yersin chose Putin from the “KGB” (the former Soviet intelligence agency National Security Council) to succeed Putin because he believed that Putin was loyal, and Putin was not. There were also assurances that Yersin and his relatives would not be subject to political reckoning.
But to Putin’s embarrassment, Elizaveta Peskova, the 24-year-old daughter of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, also posted an anti-war post on IG, although it was withdrawn after just an hour. , but it has been widely circulated by netizens.
Sofia Abramovich, Putin’s good friend and the 27-year-old baby daughter of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, also posted on the IG account with more than 60,000 fans, pointing the finger Directly at Putin. “The biggest and most successful lie in Kremlin propaganda is that most Russians support Putin,” she said.
Russia is currently facing the most and toughest sanctions in history, and the stock market has continued to plummet, forcing the authorities to continue to close the market. When a stock market analyst Alexander Butmanov appeared on a Russian TV program to analyze the trend of the stock market a few days ago, he said: “I have nothing to say.” After the host responded, “This is the common voice of everyone recently.” He asked again: “Is it still meaningful to analyze the stock market now? Do you plan to continue doing this?”
I saw Butmanov said that he had prepared for the worst and wanted to make money by dressing up as Santa Claus 25 years ago, and then he took out a bottle of sparkling water and said, “Dear stock market, you were once us. We had a great time, dearest friends, rest in peace, dear comrade.” Then he took a swig. And the host, who apparently didn’t know about the episode, said, “I don’t believe this is the case, so I won’t comment.”
According to comprehensive media reports, Russian journalist Farida Rustamova recently interviewed several senior Russian officials, saying that some officials believed that the invasion of Ukraine was “a mistake”, they were “frustrated, afraid” and “made Doomsday predictions”.
At present, Rustamova has fled Russia. After she left the country, she published the above-mentioned report saying that two days before Putin launched the “special military operation”, Russian officials and members of Congress believed that the president would not go to war, but only through diplomacy. Negotiations hold more benefits. But Russia has suddenly invaded Ukraine, and Putin has now distanced himself from some high-ranking Russian officials.
She wrote that the source alleges that the deployment to Ukraine was likely only with prior knowledge of Putin’s innermost circle, including Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, and counterintelligence services. Chief.
Officials and members of parliament who spoke with her said they were increasingly concerned about how Putin would handle the war, the report said. An official said, “Putin is in a state of being offended and insulted, paranoid to the point of absurdity.”
In addition, the British “The Times” received the news on the 7th that according to the internal assessment of the Russian government, the war against Ukraine must end in June at the latest, otherwise the Russian economy may collapse.
The Times, citing a source from Russia’s Federal Security Service, said spies in Russia’s security services “know nothing about President Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine.” The whistleblower described the war as a “complete failure, comparable only to the collapse of Nazi Germany”.
The report, written by an analyst with Russia’s Federal Security Service, said the death toll of Russians in the war may have reached 10,000. But so far, the Russian Ministry of Defense has only acknowledged the deaths of 498 soldiers. The report said that no one in the Russian government knew the true number of Russian troops killed because “we have lost contact with the main divisional units”.
Russia has no hope of occupying Ukraine even if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is killed, the report says, “even with minimal Ukrainian resistance, we need more than 500,000 (occupation forces), not including supply and logistics workers. ”
In addition, Morgan Stanley released an analysis report this week that pointed out that as early as April 15, Russia’s sovereign debt may have a Venezuela-style default situation, leading to the collapse of the economic structure.
Simon Waever, vice president of Morgan Stanley, pointed out that due to international sanctions, Russia’s move towards a government default is the most likely scenario, as early as April 15, the Russian government expires in 2023 and 2043. U.S. dollar bonds will face the end of the 30-day grace period for interest payments, at which time the pressure of a sovereign debt default could hit Russia and cause the Russian government to go bankrupt.
At present, Western countries have imposed the toughest and most stringent sanctions against Russia to date, covering financial, military, technology, energy, sports and other commodity exports. Affected by the sanctions, the Russian ruble has depreciated sharply, the Russian stock market has fallen to the limit, foreign capital has left, and the financial crisis and economic collapse are imminent.
Former Russian richest man in exile and oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky predicted in an interview with CNN a few days ago that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will eventually end Putin’s rule. “I believe Putin doesn’t have much time left, maybe a year, maybe three years; today we no longer think he can serve another 10-year term compared to a week ago,” Khodorkovsky said. ”
The 58-year-old Khodorkovsky was once the CEO and major shareholder of the Russian oil giant Yukos Oil (now bankrupt). , was charged with fraud and tax evasion, and was sentenced to nine years in prison in 2005. He was pardoned by Putin and released in 2013, and now lives in London.
Khodorkovsky told CNN that many Russian billionaires have denounced Putin’s aggression against Ukraine in the past week.
Mikhail Minakov, head of the Ukrainian research program at the Kennan Institute under the Wilson Center for International Scholars, also issued an article a few days ago, stating that the invasion of Ukraine is not only an absolute crime, but also an irreparable mistake that will activate Putin. The penultimate stage of the regime.
“Regarding NATO, I calmed down a long time ago on this issue after we learned that NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said through a translator in an exclusive interview with ABC News that aired on the evening of the 7th. NATO is afraid of controversy and confrontation with Russia. I never want to be a country on my knees begging for something. And we’re not going to be that country and I don’t want to be that kind of president.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on the 9th that negotiations “have made some progress.” Zakharova said the goal of the Russian army “is not to occupy Ukraine, or to destroy its statehood, or to overthrow its state.” Its government. Nor is it targeting the civilian population”.
After many days of war, Russia and Ukraine have conducted three rounds of negotiations before this foreign ministers’ meeting. Ukraine said it no longer emphasized that it must join NATO. Russia claimed that it had no intention of occupying Ukraine. Content analysis.
According to the “France Guang” report, first of all, from Russia’s point of view, Russia does not seek to overthrow the Ukrainian government, which is likely to depend on the situation on the battlefield. Now that about half a month has passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s plan for a quick solution It is a clear failure, and Russia will fall into economic difficulties due to sanctions from Europe and the United States. If the war continues, Russia may be in a quagmire.
As for Ukraine, the report believes that “no more emphasis on joining NATO” is actually referring to the reality. NATO has never set a timetable for Ukraine’s joining, and Russia has instead used NATO’s eastward expansion as an excuse for aggression. Therefore, for Ukraine, On the one hand, this speech is meant to criticize NATO, on the other hand, it makes Russia’s excuse for aggression lose its foundation.
The report pointed out that although the two sides seem to be taking a step back, the situation is still dangerous. The Ukrainian side insists that it will not recognize the independence of Ukrainian East and Russia’s dominion over Crimea. The Russian army is still advancing in Kyiv. Dawn.
However, some analysts are optimistic. “It’s hard to say when the war will end, because it’s very unlikely that there will be a sudden stop,” Christo Grozev, chief executive of the investigative news group Bellingcat and chief Russian investigative reporter, said in an interview published by Ukrainian Pravda on the 10th. For example, ‘the war is over today’. Whether the war is over, I am afraid there will be a period of chaos, but there will be no more bloodshed, that is the most important thing.”
Grozev boldly assessed that Russia’s battlefield advantage is constantly weakening, and Moscow is well aware of this. It is foreseeable that the Russian army will “freeze” the war within 7 to 10 days. He believes that Russia will not declare the end of the war on its own because that would mean admitting defeat, but suspending it at some point.
In this Russia-Ukraine conflict, the authoritative fact-checking and news investigation group “Bellingcat” headquartered in the Netherlands has accurately grasped the war situation and recorded war crimes, which has attracted a lot of attention.