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On August 16, marked by the occupation of the capital, Kabul, the Afghan Taliban (“Ata” for short) seized power throughout the country after a lapse of 25 years. The United States withdrew troops quickly, the government troops were defeated quickly, and Atta’s victory was rapid, shocking the world.
United States: Hegemony continues to decline
The United States fought the war in Afghanistan for 20 years and ended in embarrassment with its troop withdrawal. The United States has abandoned the Kuomintang Chiang Kai-shek, South Korea’s Lee Chengman, South Vietnam’s Wu Tingyan, Syrian Kurdish forces, and now Afghanistan Ghani. Every time, the interests of the United States are paramount, regardless of the feelings and life and death of friends.
On August 16, Biden spoke at the White House to defend the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. The predecessor Trump’s “negotiated agreement with the Taliban” reduced the U.S. military from approximately 15,500 to 2,500, resulting in “the Taliban’s military strength being the strongest since 2001”; the Afghan army “collapsed, sometimes even There was no fighting”; by naming and criticizing President Ghani for refusing to “see a political solution with the Taliban” and “fleeing the country.”
From a tactical point of view, Biden is undoubtedly a complete failure, a serious blow to the morale of the US military and loss of national credibility. The U.S. military and intelligence agencies made serious misjudgments. Even if they assisted the Afghan government forces to defend the capital for a month, they were much more respectable and had a much calmer retreat.
On July 8, Biden had declared that Atta “it was impossible” to occupy the entire Afghanistan. After just five weeks, he was brutally “slapped in the face” and Atta quickly took control of the country. According to a Reuters/Ipsos joint poll on August 16, only 46% of American adults are satisfied with Biden’s performance in power, a decrease of 7 percentage points from last week, the lowest level since he took office in January.
From a strategic point of view, Biden’s insistence on withdrawing troops is definitely correct and can no longer be deep in the mud. Failing to withdraw means increasing troops, and military expenditures and casualties have risen sharply, continuing to consume the overall national strength of the United States. Biden clearly stated in his speech, “Our true strategic competitors-China and Russia”, “will more than the United States hope to continue to invest billions of dollars in resources and attention to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan indefinitely.”
The United States has rashly withdrawn its troops and disregards the interests of its allies. The biggest sequelae is that the country’s credibility and the ability to perform its credit have been questioned at an unprecedented rate. Will the war be launched in the future? Biden was severely criticized by his party and the Republican Party at home; even the hard-core ally, the British government, also publicly criticized the United States, following the “leader brother” in the war in Afghanistan for 20 years. 457 British soldiers were killed in action; on August 17, the German President Stewart Inmeier sharply criticized: “The desperate scene at Kabul Airport is a disgrace to the political West.”
Trump stepped down, but the specter of Trumpism persists, and it is still “America First.” The U.S. military retreated to Afghanistan. How could Trump, who showed off his vanity so much, bombarded Biden immediately. In an interview with Fox on August 17th, he said, “This is the most embarrassing time in our country’s history.”
Recently, Chinese netizens and public opinion have indeed fallen into a carnival. One of the new paragraphs reads: “If you sometimes feel that you have done nothing, please remember the United States. It took 4 presidents, spent more than 1 trillion US dollars, more than 2,300 soldiers’ lives, 20 years, successfully removed the Afghan regime from The Taliban was replaced by the Taliban.”
The year 2001 marked a watershed in Sino-US relations and the fortunes of the country. Since China’s entry into the WTO, the economy has developed rapidly since then; the United States experienced the “September 11 Incident”, and its national strength went from prosperity to decline. But the United States is still the world‘s hegemon, and no country has the strength to challenge it for at least 30 years.
The United States has finally become sober and correctly locked China as its biggest strategic competitor. Maintaining hegemony in all regions and being the world‘s police force is no longer able to do what it wants. Only to abandon secondary regions and fronts, continue to shrink strategically, concentrate superior resources in the Asia-Pacific region, and besiege China. Mao Zedong used this strategy during the Anti-Japanese War, the Civil War, and the Korean War.
It is foreseeable that with the technological advancement of shale oil, the United States has achieved self-sufficiency in energy and has transformed from a major oil importer to a major exporter. The strategic position of the Middle East will inevitably decline and become the next strategic contraction area for the United States. The strategic role of Israel and Saudi Arabia will decline, and Iran’s geopolitical power will expand to fill the power vacuum that the United States has withdrawn. There is no suspense about the restoration of the Iran nuclear agreement.
Atta: How to win the trust of the public
The Pakistani Taliban (abbreviated as “Bata”) has been identified as a terrorist organization by the United States, Pakistan and the international community. It turned out to be a branch of Atta in Pakistan, and it became independent in 2014 due to inconsistent ideas.
Atta is also stigmatized, and terrorism and extreme religious acts are endless. In power from 1996 to 2001, women were forbidden to go to school or work. They must wear a burqa and be accompanied by a male relative, otherwise the religious police would humiliate or flog it in public; in March 2001, they used cannons and explosives to destroy Pakistan built in the 6th century. The Miyang Buddha has aroused global public outrage; in July 2007, 23 South Korean hostages were kidnapped by Ata, of which 2 hostages were executed; in May 2021, an Afghan who had served as an interpreter in the US military for 16 months was arrested by Ata in May 2021. Beheaded.
On August 17, Atta unexpectedly displayed a large-scale gentleness at a press conference, deliberately whitening the stigma of “evil” in the past, and made the “five promises” to the international community. Namely: realize women’s rights within the framework of Sharia law; form an inclusive “Islamic government” involving all parties; will not harm foreigners in Afghanistan, and will not retaliate against former government officials, military officers and soldiers; private media can continue Work independently and freely; the land of Afghanistan will not be used against anyone.
Atta indirectly explained the reason for these promises: “We have undergone tremendous changes compared to 20 years ago.” Of course, the new regime’s promises to the people during the honeymoon period are just like the promises made by men to their girlfriends during their relationship. The fulfillment rate has always been biased. Low, you need to put a big question mark, listen to what you say and watch what you do. The message transmitted by Atta’s control of the territory is full of contradictions, and it is not clear whether it is a temporary strategy to consolidate the regime or a true manifestation of values.
On the one hand, girls in Herat, the third largest city, resumed classes on August 18, although they changed to wearing black burqas and white headscarves; the former police chief of Kandahar, the second largest city, Satayeb ordered the security forces a month ago Killed the Ata soldier, without Ata’s revenge, no war criminals, no execution, just assigned him a new job as a driver.
On the other hand, after the occupation of Kandahar in early July, Ata gunmen broke into a bank, ordered 9 female employees to leave and escorted them home, and their jobs were replaced by male relatives. On August 17, a woman in Takha Province was due to be in a public place. The undressed burqa was shot and killed; on August 18, people in Jalalabad, a large eastern city, took to the streets to protest and demanded that the Taliban flag be replaced by the Afghan flag. Atta soldiers shot and suppressed at least three people. , More than 10 people were injured.
Trend: Five things to watch in the future
──Will a new government be established on September 11? On August 19, Atta announced the country’s name as the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” and also asked the United States to “withdraw all troops” from Afghanistan before September 11. It is wise not to choose the “National Humiliation Day” of the United States to establish a new Government. If it becomes a fact, it is obviously to publicly humiliate the United States to the world, and it also proves that it is politically naive. For future U.S.-Tajikistan relations, the U.S. has used many avenues to retaliate. There are also many avenues to torture Atta and Afghanistan to death. Atta should avoid becoming an “anti-American fighter” and must be at the forefront of anti-Americanism at his own discretion. To unite all the forces that can be united at home and abroad, this is the political maturity and the real reincarnation.
──Is there a prolonged civil war? If a united, inclusive, and stable new government cannot be formed within two months, Afghanistan will inevitably be in turmoil. The former Vice President Saleh is a hero, standing against the Ghani pattern suspected of corruption and treason, staying in Afghanistan to resist, and the eldest son of Masood (the anti-Soviet national hero, known as the “Panjhir Lion”) eldest son Masood Formed an alliance and commanded the remaining government forces to retake Charikar, the capital of Parvang Province, and were fighting Ata near the easy-to-defend Panjshir Gorge. Although the US military has no intention of being involved in the war, it is easy to provide sufficient funds, weapons, and intelligence to support the resistance organization, maintain the civil war, and constrain Ata for a long time.
──Are there civil rights and humanitarian disasters again? There are two most intuitive indicators: women’s rights to education and employment, and the problems of people’s food and homelessness, which test Atta’s ability to govern again. According to data from the United Nations Assistance Mission, as of the end of 2020, the number of Afghans displaced in various parts of the country has reached 2.9 million. If the people cannot live and work in peace, there will be no peace in the world.
──Is it a hotbed of terrorism again? The international community is unanimously opposed and unanimously worried. If Atta does not deal with it effectively and becomes an enemy of the world, there will never be a good end. It is only a matter of time before it collapses again. On August 16, the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting. Secretary-General Guterres said: “Ensure that Afghanistan will not become a platform or safe haven for terrorist organizations again”; when US Secretary of State Blincoln was talking on the phone with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, he also emphasized that “the Taliban should Demonstrated a clean break with extremism”, “The United States reiterates its opposition to all forms of terrorism”; French President Macron claimed that Afghanistan must never become a “sanctuary” for terrorism again.
──Is it a normal country? Afghanistan has been ravaged by great powers for a long time, and it is not only an “imperial cemetery”, but also an “imperial chess piece.” It is just a collection of primitive tribes, and the power of the president is limited, equivalent to the mayor of Kabul. At present, Ata only unifies the country in form and controls large and medium cities and some rural areas. The tribes are still autonomous and warlord in different regions. One of the big fainting tricks of the United States after the war in Iraq was to disband the Iraqi army. Atta was very wise and quickly announced on August 17 that he would grant an amnesty to all government staff and members of the security forces and urged him to return to work. The list of members of the new government in the future can clearly see Atta’s united front ability and sincerity in compromise.
(Note: The author is an independent commenter, WeChat public account: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author’s views. The editor’s email address: [email protected])