“The father of the atomic bomb” Robert Oppenheimer once quoted a famous saying in the Indian scripture “Bhagavad Gita”: “At this moment I have become the god of death, the destroyer of all worlds.”
Oppenheimer knew that he had made a weapon. And this weapon is enough to make mankind itself go to destruction.
Today, Australia has stepped into the “nuclear world“. Although we will not deploy nuclear weapons, we will have nuclear-powered submarines.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that we have entered a new era. He is right. Australia is now about to become the seventh country in the world to have nuclear-powered submarines.
The security front in the Indo-Pacific region is becoming more and more apparent. On one side is the United States and its allies, and on the other side is China. Australia also no longer pretends that it does not need to choose a side station between the White House and Beijing. We put all the bargaining chips on the American side, and the risk is a catastrophic conflict. In fact, we are preparing for it.
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Is it time to be independent?
The alliance with the United States has always been the cornerstone of Australia’s security. But is this still the case now? Former Prime Minister Paul Keating does not think so.
When expressing his stance on the nuclear submarine incident, Keating said it was a “further dramatic loss of Australian sovereignty.” He said that the United States cannot even fight the Taliban. How can it be possible to win the war with China?
Keating asked: Is it time for Australia to adopt an independent approach?
This question is critical, because the world is thinking about America’s staying power. It is not unreasonable that this era is called the “post-American world“.
It is not the United States that is driving the development of the global economy, but China. By the end of this century, China will completely replace the United States and become the world‘s largest economy.
Indeed, the United States still has the most powerful military and military expenditures that exceed those of China. But Beijing is also preparing for a different war—a regional conflict that China believes is inevitable. China’s strategy is to eliminate US maritime power and involve the US in a battle concerning China’s conditions and territory.
Supplied: Australian Government
)Other participants
It’s not just about China. Russia has the world‘s second largest nuclear arsenal. The White House sees both Moscow and Beijing as its greatest security threats.
The relations between Russia and China are getting closer. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also re-established Russian influence on its borders and in the Middle East.
Although the United States, Australia, Japan, and India have strengthened the cooperation of the so-called Group of Four (Quad) in order to counter China’s ambitions in the region, Japan and India are still avoiding it. The relationship between India and Russia remains close, and Indian Prime Minister Nstrndra Modhi often talks about their “lasting partnership.”
Russia has always been India’s largest supplier of weapons. In addition to the G4, India and Japan also hope to establish a “trilateral” relationship with Russia.
Countries will pursue their own interests in their own ways. The old-fashioned “Cold War blocs” (Cold War blocs) are not so applicable in today’s multi-polar world.
China and Russia completed joint military exercises with Iran. They also have close ties with North Korea and Pakistan, two countries that possess nuclear weapons.
European countries have adopted a more selective and cautious approach to China. The European Union hopes to become the “third pillar” in the world, to check and balance the competition between China and the United States.
Earlier this year, the Chatham House think tank stated in a report: “Although the Biden administration has expressed its eagerness to cooperate with allies to’counter’ China, the EU’s willingness to release is still limited. “
There are obvious economic considerations. China has now surpassed the United States to become the EU’s largest trading partner.
The Chatham Institute pointed out that the strategy the EU is pursuing is risky and difficult to achieve. This strategy will also make European countries more vulnerable to pressure from the United States and China. However, the EU’s approach also clarifies the challenges the United States will face when it takes a coordinated counterattack against China.
AP: Sergei Ilyin
)The challenge of a global power
Compared with the former Soviet Union, it is much more difficult to isolate and contain China. The argument of “Cold War 2.0” is wrong because Beijing has a much closer relationship with today’s globalized world than it was in Moscow.
Compared with the “iron curtain” during the Cold War, the boundaries of today’s “bamboo curtain” are not so clear. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” is a 21st century “New Silk Road” spanning 70 countries. China is using this to expand its economy and investment scope. It is estimated that by 2040, the “Belt and Road” initiative will increase global GDP by more than A$7 trillion per year.
China is a global power. It is not rising, but has already arrived. It is listed among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, a member of the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization, and a signatory to various international conventions.
China has also rightly pointed out that the transfer of global power has not been manifested in the institutions that set the global order. For example, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are led by the United States and Europe.
As a big country, China requires treatment as a big country. China is not a democratic country, but it does not mean that its rise is illegal. In such a situation, what should we do?
AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, Pool
)Some people believe that the world should tolerate Beijing. But this view may ignore the tyranny of China under Xi Jinping, such as violations of ethnic minorities and the suppression of dissent and democracy.
There are also people who tend to believe that there is a moral reciprocity between the world led by the United States and the world led by China. actually not. You can hardly describe China as a defender of human rights. The world will not expect China to guarantee the rights of Afghan women.
The Chinese government has stated that it will use its power, especially in trade, to bully other countries to achieve its goals. Autocratic China poses obvious challenges, even threats, to the values of freedom and democracy.
The world dominated by China is completely different from the world we are familiar with after World War II.
Flawed superpower
The United States is a flawed superpower; its actions, interventions, and military adventurism do not always reflect what it claims to be a beacon of democracy. But the American people can elect the leader of their own country. The world will turn its attention to the United States at a time of crisis.
The question now is: Does the United States hope to lead a world that is no longer dominated by it?
The strength of the United States may provide a prescription for the problems of the 21st century in the 20th century.
For Australia, the risk is high. Our region has long-standing hostility, countries with nuclear weapons, and territorial disputes. An accident or misjudgment may lead to a rapid escalation of the situation. And China is also trying to become a dominant force in this region.
Then there is Xi Jinping. He is an unknown factor. As he himself said, he is ready to go to war in order to unify Taiwan and mainland China. He ignored international rulings, declared sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea and strengthened military control.
He is cruel to domestic governance, but he talks about peace and stability abroad. He announced that he was re-elected as chairman for life. Our security is tied to such a man who talks about war, and even the Chinese people cannot let him step down.
Can Australia handle it alone? can not. This does not mean that we have to give up our sovereignty, but it does emphasize Australia’s dependence on other countries. Just when other countries concealed their bets, we doubled our bets on the United States.
We can only hope that the threat of war will be sufficient to prevent the outbreak of war. If not, Oppenheimer has predicted the end for us.
Stan Grant is the host of ABC’s “China Tonight” program. The show premieres on the ABC TV channel at 9:35 every Monday night and reruns on the ABC News channel at 8:00 every Tuesday night.
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