US President Biden announced on the 8th to ban Russian oil, natural gas and energy imports, and the United Kingdom also announced to follow suit. The European Commission has also proposed a gradual reduction of energy dependence on Russia. Will China become a breach after Western countries raise energy sanctions on Russia? Analysis pointed out that China has deep trade with the United States, the European Union, and Japan. China is very aware that once it is discovered that it has helped Russia in the economy, it may face strong counterattacks and retaliation, so China will respond cautiously.
After U.S. President Biden aimed at the lifeline of Russia’s economy and imposed a ban on Russian oil, gas and energy, the United Kingdom also announced that it would follow the United States and gradually stop imports of Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of this year. On March 8, the European Commission proposed to cut natural gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year, significantly reducing energy dependence on Russia.
Earlier, Western countries launched a financial boycott, excluding some Russian banks from the global payment system “Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication” (SWIFT).
Analysis: Give the target of sanctions a space to escape, and they will become the next target
Lin Yufang, convener of the National Security Group of the Taiwan National Policy Foundation, analyzed that China has long chosen sides on this issue, moving from negative to positive. When China saw the West’s sanctions on Moscow, Lin Yufang described it as “feeling terrified.” He believed that if China did not express its attitude actively, the West, especially the United States, wanted to classify China as being with Russia, and they were all accomplices in the invasion of Ukraine.
Lin Yufang: “I think Beijing regards this as a danger and an opportunity. The danger is that if you don’t handle it well, you will offend Russia, and what is even more terrifying is to make the West, especially the United States, even more disgusted with you. While sanctioning Russia, it will also increase the boycott and sanctions against you and China. And containment.”
In a discussion on “The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on International and Cross-Strait Relations”, Lin Yufang mentioned, “For China, it is more important to please the West than to offend Russia!” Mia made a choice.
“I think Beijing is especially concerned with economic sanctions. People may think that this is a kind of goodwill from Beijing. In fact, from a practical perspective, if he does not cooperate, it can be regarded as the next sanction target (secondary sanction). You Give the target of sanctions a space to escape sanctions, and he will become a ‘secondary target’.” Zuo Zhengdong, a professor of politics at National Taiwan University, echoed.
Zuo Zhengdong believes that, in fact, Beijing is very cautious and fearful in the face of this problem. He said that when Russia and Ukraine started the war, many people thought that China was happy and played a role actively. Zuo Zhengdong’s interpretation believes that although China has such an idea, the main thing is to survive, to get rid of the very embarrassing and difficult situation that China faces under the attack of Russia.
Zuo Zhengdong pointed out, “This also reflects his ‘sexy and sternness’. Regarding domestic comments, many people have noticed that China’s voice of solidarity with Ukraine has not been widely reported, but Chinese public opinion has not been widely reported to support Russia. In fact, ‘anti-American’ is still the main axis. , but they did not support Russia in addition to being anti-American, and from the trend of public opinion, we can see how they figured out what they liked.”
Russia is China’s largest energy importer. Does China and Russia have a dependency relationship?
How dependent is China on Russian energy. In 2021, the scale of trade between China and Russia will hit the highest level in history. According to the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China in January this year, from January to October 2021, China imported 262.32 billion yuan of energy products from Russia, an increase of 36.6%. It is China’s largest source of imports of energy products. The data pointed out that “the import of crude oil from Russia accounts for 15.5% of China’s total crude oil imports.”
Teng Xinyun, a researcher at the China Strategic Foresight Association, analyzed that Russia chose the highest international oil price because it made more money and had more chips. For Russia, energy output is a great asset and can even be used as a strategic weapon. At present, although many heavy sanctions have been introduced, many countries dare not touch the energy sector, and President Biden fired the first shot, but many countries have other plans.
Teng Xinyun: “Putin was the only head of state who attended the Beijing Winter Olympics. He discussed a lot of trade agreements and transactions with the CCP in private. Many analysts mentioned that Putin had expected at that time that after the Western sanctions were imposed on the Ukraine issue, he would In anticipation of sanctions there could be a ‘gap’ in obtaining blood transfusions from China.”
China’s total trade with the West far exceeds that between China and Russia
Lin Yufang cited a number of numerical analyses and believed that China’s economic and trade dependence on the United States, Western Europe and many other Western countries far exceeds his economic and trade relations with Russia.
Including the surplus of US$310.2 billion between China and the US in 2020, and as high as US$355.3 billion in 2021; in addition, China (10.2%) is the third largest exporter to the EU in 2021, after the US at 18.3% and the UK at 13.0%), China is also the EU’s largest importer, accounting for 22.4% of total imports. China is the EU’s largest trading partner.
Lin Yufang: “Although it may be painful to make this decision, it is clear that he must make this decision. He has to slowly express his support for the West. He did not help Russia to help her out. So far, there has been no obvious action.”
Lin Yufang said that China has restraints on itself, so it is very careful to speak on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, because it is easy to be found in economic and financial assistance to Russia, and it will be strongly counterattacked and retaliated by Western countries, so China is extra cautious.
Radio Free Asia reporter Huang Chunmei reported from Taipei, editor-in-chief Wen Xiaoping, web editor Ruizhe