Who wrote the script for the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan? Some people may be surprised by the answer: Mao Zedong.
Yes, the revolutionary leader of the Chinese Communist Party cast a long shadow over Afghanistan. He can be regarded as the father of modern rebellion: his doctrine has inspired the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State.
In 2004, Islamic strategist Abu Bakr Naji released a document he called “barbaric management”-a template for endless war. This document became the preferred text for the Islamic rebellion, and it borrowed from Mao Zedong’s approach.
U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Guillaume Beaurpere, who served in Iraq and studied al-Qaeda ideology, linked Islamic strategy with Mao Zedong’s doctrine.
He said that although the “environment and motives” of the Chinese Communist Revolution are different from Islamic terrorism, it is “very obvious” that its strategy comes from Mao Zedong.
Reuters: Thomas Peter
)In Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh used years of experience in providing advice and work with the Communist Party of Huawei Mao Zedong to plan actions to defeat the United States.
In fact, from the fall of Saigon to the fall of Kabul, Mao Zedong wrote the script for the failure of the United States. He claimed that he had defeated the United States in the decisive battle of the Korean War in the Battle of the Ch’ongch’on River, when his troops defeated the Eighth Army of General Douglas MacArthur and inspired the United States. The largest retreat in military history.
This conflict that took place in what the United States described as a “forgotten war” is, in the eyes of future generations, the most influential battle of the 20th century. To this day, China is still cheering for that victory, and the alarm bells of conflict have sounded between the United States and China.
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What did Mao Zedong teach the Taliban?
Mao Zedong honed his military talents in the war against the Japanese occupation and on the front lines of the civil war vying for control of China with the Kuomintang forces backed by the United States.
He put forward his own guerrilla warfare ideas, and later put forward the concept of “people’s war”.
Dr. Thomas Marks, an expert on Maoist insurgency issues, said: “Mao Zedong is to unconventional warfare what Napoleon and Clausewitz are to conventional warfare.”
In 2009, when Dr. Max wrote for the West Point Military Academy’s Anti-Terrorism Center, he declared, “However, Mao Zedong’s writings are crucial to achieving and maintaining success in the rebellion in Iraq and Afghanistan”.
AP: Rahmat Gul
)What did Mao Zedong say about guerrilla warfare, and what does it enlighten for the Taliban? Mao Zedong showed the Taliban how a smaller force can defeat a larger force. In his book “On Guerrilla Warfare,” Mao Zedong said that guerrilla warfare must be flexible, and they must adapt and use local knowledge and population to serve them. Mao Zedong wrote:
“The guerrilla strategy must be based primarily on alertness, mobility, and attack. It must be adjusted according to the enemy’s situation, terrain, existing lines of communication, relative strength, weather, and people’s conditions.”
He said that there must be a clear goal: “Without political goals, guerrilla warfare must fail.”
For Mao Zedong, this is a people’s war: today’s peasants are tomorrow’s soldiers. The most important thing is that this must be what he called a “protracted war”, that is, to consume and drive the enemy through long-term and arduous training.
Mao Zedong proposed a three-stage strategy, and the Taliban fully followed this strategy. The first stage is the initial invasion and the enemy’s offensive. The second stage is the consolidation of the enemy. The third stage is the counterattack and the enemy’s retreat.
As Mao Zedong said when facing the invading Japanese: “The war between China and Japan is not an ordinary war. It is a life and death battle between semi-colonial and semi-feudal China and imperialist Japan…”
The Taliban would also describe the invading Americans in this way.
“Revolution is not a treat to dinner”
Mao Zedong’s forces are often underestimated, especially by the United States. The United States later provided support to Mao Zedong’s opponent Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang. It is the same now. The United States does not see what is in front of them, even though it has been at war with the Taliban for 20 years.
This is not to deny the brutality of Mao Zedong or the Taliban. Indeed, cruelty is the core of Mao Zedong’s doctrine. As he famously said, revolution is not a treat. However, no one can refute the success of this strategy after Mao Zedong’s adaptation and the Taliban’s perfection.
Ten years ago, in a paper for the Carnegie Institute, political scientist and Afghanistan expert Gilles Dorronsoro explained what the United States did wrong and why the Taliban would eventually win.
He wrote that the Taliban “has a strategy and a coherent organization to implement it. If, like some American analysts, think otherwise, it is dangerously underestimating the opponent”.
Dorensoro laid out a road map for the Taliban to regain power, based on tenacity and the ability to reorganize from tactical setbacks. He said it is crucial that the Taliban take advantage of the government’s weaknesses and corruption, as well as Afghans’ lack of trust or confidence in government officials.
As Mao Zedong said, people are more important than weapons, and the Taliban have established connections outside of their traditional Pashtun base for many years.
As Doren Solo wrote, the Taliban has a “coherent strategy” to “subvert the traditional structure[特别是部落架构]”。
Doren Solo warned at the time that the United States lacked justification and strategy to defeat the Taliban. He said the weak and corrupt Afghan government will only make it easier for the Taliban to maintain a foothold and expand its support base.
The return of the Taliban is a repeat of history
The return of the Taliban to power should not surprise anyone who follows. It is a repeat of history and the United States has not learned the lessons of history.
The world’s most powerful army spent 20 years, spent trillions of dollars, lost thousands of lives, and was unable to defeat the Taliban.
Just as it left a divided North Korea, the withdrawal from Vietnam and the withdrawal of troops from Iraq opened the door to the Islamic State.
After the Vietnam War, Americans experienced a crisis of confidence and loss of prestige. After the war in Afghanistan, when Biden said that gambling with the United States was a bad idea, do we believe it? I think the Taliban did it.
Reuters: Jonathan Ernst
)However, even if the United States is not an outstanding country, it is also an indispensable country. In an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world, the world still expects American leadership. A country like Australia cannot but rely on the United States for security.
Many things depend on the US-led order we see: the power of the ANZUS and NATO, as well as the continued existence of the four-party talks composed of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan. The four-party talks mechanism is designed to counter China’s growing influence and scope.
There will be a bigger battle in the future, and Biden has already made this point: Democracy against autocracy. Recent evidence suggests that democracy is retreating. The lowering of the American flag in Kabul underscores this point.
China is watching. It is already working to establish closer ties with Afghanistan and take advantage of the space left by the United States. It has a close relationship with Pakistan, and Pakistan has always been the main booster of the Taliban.
We have heard warnings of “drums of war” between the United States and China.
We can only imagine Xi Jinping’s view of the United States: if you can’t conquer the Taliban inspired by Mao Zedong, how will you defeat the country created by Mao Zedong?
The author Stan Grant is the host of the ABC TV show “China Tonight” (China Tonight), which will be broadcast on the ABC main channel at 8pm every Monday night.
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