We could be overwhelmed. The alarm raised loudly by the strategists of the American Democratic Party grows from poll to poll, in the face of the wounded popularity of Joe Biden, crushed by the unknowns on the economy, starting with inflation that has galloped to the top for forty years. And from the lack of confidence in his leadership – even in the crisis with Russia. It is an alarm that looks to the midterm elections, now just around the corner: in November the Democrats fear a Waterloo, which will cost them a majority in both the House and the Senate and definitively cripple Biden’s mandate and agenda, if nothing changes in these months . Particularly traumatic is the drop in consensus among the younger electorate and among minorities, pillars of victory in 2020.
Debacle in the polls
The most recent nationwide numbers for the White House are a cold shower. Quinnipiac University reported a negative approval record for Biden at 33%, with 54% disapproving. If 76% of Democrats trust him and 94% of Republicans reject him, it is among the independents that the difficulties emerge: he is torpedoed by 54% against 26%. Not even the conduct in the face of the war in Ukraine calls for unity behind him: 39% approve, 52% ask for more against Moscow.
Quinnipiac is by far the most negative of the big polls. But he is not isolated in exposing Biden’s weakness. A recent average of the surveys calculated by Cnn finds it at 39% with 55% disapproving. The broader FiveThirtyEight analysis, which takes into account the quality and reliability of opinion polls, sees Biden at 41.6% against 52.2. The relationship between such percentages and ballot boxes is inscribed in political experience: the average loss of seats in the House for the president’s party when approval is below 50% is 37. Bill Clinton in 1994 was at 46% and he saw vanish 54; Barack Obama in 2010 was 45% and sold 63. Biden today has a narrow majority of five seats in the House and in the Senate a 50-50 impasse is broken by the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Economic fears and the Afghanistan effect
The president’s slip finds multiple explanations: the new economic fears have added to the chaotic exit from Afghanistan in foreign policy and, on the domestic front, to the failed efforts to pass ambitious but controversial chapters of his plans for social and environmental reform . All of this amidst criticism for lack of charisma and communication.
More precisely, Gallup has however noted the dominance of the high cost of living today, starting with energy prices, among the voters: almost one in five considers it the clearly more urgent issue, compared to 9% who cite the crisis in Ukraine and 3 % the pandemic. “High gasoline prices are among the biggest anchors in the presidency approval rate,” Gallup’s Jeff Jones told parliamentary newspaper The Hill.