Coronavirus, the United Kingdom attacked by the Delta variant. More and more hospitalizations

LONDON. On Coronavirus and Delta variant in the UK, there are two news: one bad and the other, at least for the moment, good. Let’s start with the bad one. The Delta strain, that is the one detected for the first time in India between March and April last, is making more and more breaches in the country: now we travel at the rate of almost 10 thousand new cases a day (even if on about one million tests) and the variant now accounts for over 90% of new cases, thus supplanting the others. In the last 7 days, a total of 55,216 new infections have been registered in the UK, 13,327 more than in the previous week, an increase of 31.8%.

A study of the React (REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission) program linked to Imperial College London and published today shows how Covid has started running again in recent weeks. Out of 110 thousand swabs detected between May 20 and June 7, 0.15% of the people tested were positive, that is 1 in 670. There is therefore an increase of 50% compared to the previous period when 1 in 1000 was tested positive for Coronavirus. The Rt index in England, and even this is not an encouraging figure, would be according to the Imperial College at 1.44: that is, 10 people infected with the virus spread it to 14 others, these 14 to 20 others, these 20 to 29 , and so on.

With the reopening of bars, pubs and restaurants in the UK a month ago, an increase in Coronavirus cases was a foregone conclusion. However, it is mainly young people who are infected with the Delta variant, i.e. those still not vaccinated or only partially. Out of the 110 thousand swabs cited, the incidence of infection among children aged 18 to 24 and children between 5 and 12 years is respectively 0.36% and 0.35%, the overall rate of under 50 is 0.20% , while that of people over 50 is “only” 0.08%, or 2.5 times less. It is also true, however, that Delta variant infections are also growing among the over 50s, who for about 95% are vaccinated with two doses (the remainder has decided not to undergo vaccine inoculations for now).

It will be crucial to see in the coming weeks the number of hospitalizations and deaths for Covid that will arise from this outbreak of infections. According to the React study, “the link between infections – hospitalizations / deaths is weakening” and this is good news, because it confirms that vaccines with two doses also work against the Delta variant. Yesterday there were 9 deaths from Covid in the UK, while in the last seven days 66, the same as the previous week. On the other hand, hospitalizations are growing significantly (not only in intensive care): yesterday 173. In total, in the last seven days, there were 1250, 366 more than the previous week (+ 41.4%).

It’s also true though, and here’s the good news, that thanks to vaccines these Delta variant numbers will most likely not result in the same number of deaths. This is because fewer and fewer elderly people are hospitalized in the United Kingdom, obviously thanks to the effectiveness of the two doses of vaccine received, which also remains valid against the Delta variant. If in January 61% of those hospitalized for Covid were over 65, now 71% of those hospitalized in the last month are under 65 and “only” 29% over 65 (very often not vaccinated). For this reason, the Johnson government recently announced to delay the “return to normality” initially scheduled for June 21 by one month and to maintain some restrictions: the goal is to vaccinate those over 40 with the second dose and thus, hopefully, break up permanently. the contagion-hospitalization link recorded in recent months.

The next few weeks will be decisive to understand if this really happened. In that case, in the United Kingdom we should go back to living more or less like in the pre-Covid era and, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said several times, “we will learn to live with the Coronavirus, without ever returning to lockdown” .