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The impact and harm of the new crown epidemic is a once-in-a-century magnitude, and its impact on the economy and people’s livelihood is also a once-in-a-century. It is far greater than the 1997 and 2008 financial crises and is comparable to the two world wars.
China, a major economy, performed the best in 2020. The only positive year-on-year growth (2.3%) was achieved.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on January 19, 2021 and December 30, 2020 (both at current prices), the preliminary calculation of the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2020 is 296298 trillion yuan, and the annual GDP is 101,5986 billion yuan. The final verification for 2019 The annual GDP was 98,6515 billion yuan. From this calculation, the GDP in the first three quarters of 2020 will be 719688 billion yuan, and the average daily GDP in the fourth quarter will be 322.063 billion yuan. In other words, until December 22, 2020, China’s total GDP will catch up with the full-year GDP of 2019. , The annual increase mainly depends on the last 9 days of 2020.
On July 8, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean issued a communiqué predicting that Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 5.2% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022. The current economic recovery cannot make up for the negative impact of the epidemic.
On August 23, the Asian Development Bank stated that as many as 80 million people in Asian developing countries may fall into extreme poverty due to the new crown epidemic in 2020. On September 14, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation released the fifth annual “Goal Guardian Report”, claiming that the 2020 new crown epidemic has plunged 31 million people into extreme poverty all over the world.
The World Bank’s data and opinions are also very pessimistic, which proves that the gap between the rich and the poor and the gap between the North and the South has widened. On October 11, the World Bank released a statistical report showing that the debt of low-income countries will grow by 12% in 2020, reaching a record high of US$860 billion. On October 13, President Malpas stated that the current epidemic has plunged nearly 100 million people into extreme poverty and has increased inequality between countries. In 2021, per capita income in advanced economies is expected to increase by nearly 5%, while low-income economies are expected to grow by nearly 5%. The average income per capita increased by only 0.5%.
In addition, according to the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific region’s autumn economic update report for 2021, the growth forecasts of most countries in the region have been lowered. Although China’s economic growth is forecasted at 8.5%, the remaining countries are expected to grow by only 2.5%, compared with the previous April The forecast is reduced by 2 percentage points.
The strong the stronger, the weak the weaker. The Matthew effect of the new crown epidemic raging around the world has aggravated the gap between rich and poor within countries, between developed and developing countries. Central banks and ministries of finance have desperately “released water.” Loose monetary and fiscal policies have always benefited the rich more. This is common sense in economics. The availability of sufficient vaccines and the timely completion of all kinds of all necessary for the whole people will determine whether a country’s borders will be opened earlier or later, and whether the economic recovery will “accelerate” or “brake”.
The WHO has set ambitious goals: vaccinate at least 10% of the world’s population on September 30 this year, vaccinate at least 40% of the world’s population by the end of this year, and vaccinate 70% of the world’s population in June next year.
Ideal is full, the reality is very skinny. As of the end of September, 56 countries had failed to meet the standards, most of which were in Africa and the Middle East. Among the 54 countries in Africa, only 15 countries reached the 10% target, and only two countries reached the 40% target.
On May 25th, WHO Senior Advisor Aylward disclosed at the World Health Assembly that 83% of the 1.6 billion vaccines distributed worldwide are used by high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and the dose obtained by low-income countries differs by more than that. 75 times. Nearly five months later, the vaccine gap still exists, and there is no hope of a solution.
On October 7, WHO Director-General Tedros Tedros complained at a press conference that more than 6.4 billion doses of the vaccine have been vaccinated worldwide, and the fully vaccinated population accounts for about one-third of the world‘s population, but “these figures conceal the terrible inequality.” Because low-income countries receive less than 0.5% of global vaccines, and the number of fully vaccinated people in Africa is less than 5%.
Similar complaints and accusations, Tan Desai and WHO officials have said many times at the press conference, the only difference is that the data is changed each time. Obviously, he and the WHO want to help the poor and poor countries more, but the power and resources are not enough. They are basically helpless and powerless.
The WHO has pessimistically predicted that by the end of this year, only 17% of the population of the African continent will be vaccinated; Africa is still facing a shortage of 470 million doses of vaccine this year, which increases the risk of new deadly variant viruses.
On September 8, the Global Covid-19 Vaccination Plan (COVAX) stated that it would cut the estimated supply of vaccines in 2021 by more than a quarter, and only provide vaccines for no more than 20% of the population in poor countries by the end of this year, which is much lower. It is expected that the reason is “because of export bans, priority bilateral agreements between pharmaceutical companies and the country, the challenges of expanding production and the approval of regulatory agencies.” In this regard, Bill Gates bluntly stated in the report: “The inability of the new crown vaccine to be fairly accessible is a public health tragedy.”
On September 22, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres addressed the global COVID-19 summit and also mentioned the unfairness of the vaccine divide. Although more than 5.7 billion doses of vaccine have been vaccinated globally, 73% of them have been vaccinated in only 10 countries, and only 3% of people in Africa have been vaccinated.
On June 11, the G7 summit pledged to donate 1 billion doses of vaccine to help poor countries vaccinate. However, WHO estimates that at least 11 billion doses are needed to achieve herd immunity globally. The charity organization Oxfam has also poured cold water on these donations from G7, thinking that it is just a drop in the bucket and cannot win the epidemic war. According to the current vaccination rate, it will take 57 years for low-income countries to reach the same level of protection as G7 countries.
As a public product, the new crown vaccine has been blessed and developed by rich countries and major countries. It has now become a profitable product for pharmaceutical companies. The wealth of related stocks and corporate leaders has skyrocketed, and the “epidemic and hard fortune” have been muffled. Guterres expressed confusion: “Vaccines are becoming a $100 billion industry, and middle-income countries are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on seller’s markets to immunize their people.”
The vaccine gap is highly positively correlated with the gap between the rich and the poor, and the gap between North and South. Poor countries generally have no money, no power, and scarce resources to control. How can they win over a rich country like a wolf? Rich countries are hoarding large amounts of vaccines and even expired, but poor countries have no vaccine to protect their lives. The tragedy of the “vaccine gap” has just kicked off.
The first round of two-dose vaccines in poor countries rely on public donations, which is already very difficult. What will happen to the first round of booster injection and the second and third rounds of vaccination in the future? How many charitable billionaires of the Bill Gates level or how many rich countries can afford massive free donations? In the unlikely event that a more ferocious mutant strain that is completely immune to escape emerges than Delta, will all countries follow North Korea’s approach to self-defense?
At present, the total dose of vaccine pledged by rich and big countries is less than 10% actually delivered. The WHO pointed out that between 2020 and 2021, US$17.7 billion of pledges were received, but the funds that are not yet available must be obtained by the end of this year. About US$8.1 billion of the remaining US$16.8 billion is urgently needed. This information implies that the total amount of donations promised by rich and big countries is currently less than 10% actually in place.
Only when vaccine companies transfer production lines to developing countries, pass WHO’s supervision of production standards, establish regional production bases as soon as possible, and achieve local mass production as soon as possible, can it be expected to significantly reduce costs and achieve global equitable access to vaccines.
China is the world‘s major vaccine provider. As of the end of September 2021, 1.25 billion doses have been exported, with a commitment to export 2 billion doses this year; 8 countries including the UAE, Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, Brazil, Turkey, Pakistan, and Mexico have cooperated to produce Chinese vaccines, with a production capacity of more than 200 million doses. At present, the cumulative production of vaccines in China is about 2.443 billion doses, which is expected to reach 6 billion doses by the end of this year; the cumulative production in Europe is about 1.2 billion doses, and it is expected to be about 2 billion doses by the end of this year.
On October 8, the US CDC stated that international tourists can be allowed to enter the United States after being vaccinated with the new crown vaccine authorized by the US FDA or WHO. This measure will be implemented from November 8. This means that China’s Sinopharm and Kexing vaccines can be allowed to enter the United States, and the economies of the United States and Europe, especially the transportation and tourism industries, are expected to recover.
U.S.-European connectivity has accelerated, economic recovery has accelerated, tests and pressures on China’s economy, politics, and diplomacy have increased, and the accumulated unfavorable factors in Sino-U.S. competition will also increase. It will be a test when China will open its borders and when it will allow the entry of people with vaccines authorized by the WHO. It is estimated that more than 90% of the people in the country have not received the third shot, and it is difficult for China to fully open its borders.
(Note: The author is a researcher of Chahar Society, WeChat public account: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor’s email is [email protected])