[New Tang Dynasty News from December 10, 2021, Beijing time]Hello, everyone, this is Tang Hao, how are you today?
Today’s focus: the democratic summit is on the scene, Putin is turning the tiger away from the mountain in Ukraine, and the Taiwan Strait is guarding against war? International politicians intensively warned the CCP that they received information on Beijing’s use of force? Why did Russia seek to seize Ukraine? (Crossroads of the world)
The democratic summit officially debuted. The international community focused on the US’s offensive and defensive actions against the CCP through this summit. However, it is worth noting that Biden held a video meeting with Russian President Putin on the eve of the summit. The two sides had a two-hour dialogue. Biden warned Putin not to invade Ukraine, Putin Asking NATO not to expand eastward, both sides have their own words. Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine? Does Putin really want to attack? How is the US prepared to respond? Why does the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect the cross-strait situation and even cause military tension in the Taiwan Strait? In addition, what signals have recently been frequently released by international dignitaries to warn of relations across the Taiwan Strait? In this episode, I will discuss with you.
The democracy summit hosted by the United States is about to debut, but before the summit, there is another international focus that deserves our attention.
Today’s topic: Will Putin mobilize Ukraine to move the tiger away from the mountains and Taiwan Straits to go to war?
As you all know, the first Virtual Democracy Summit will be held on December 9th, and more than 110 countries will attend together. There are three major themes for this summit, including “confronting totalitarianism, combating corruption, and promoting human rights.” These themes are considered to be directed at the Chinese Communist regime. In other words, the democracy summit is another important battlefield for the confrontation between the United States and China. Therefore, it has received high international attention.
However, there is one important point for everyone to pay attention to. On the eve of the summit, Biden and Russian President Putin had a video conversation. The two sides talked for two hours. Even if the translation time is deducted, the actual conversation should be about one hour. Then why did Biden talk to Putin two days before the Democracy Summit? The key lies in Ukraine.
According to the “Washington Post”, the latest intelligence data obtained by the United States shows that Putin has recently mobilized heavy troops to the border areas of Ukraine. Currently, more than 94,000 troops have been stationed. The United States has determined that Russia will assemble an army of 170,000 troops as early as early next year, and then aggressively invade eastern Ukraine. However, the US also emphasized that it is not yet certain whether Putin has really decided to invade Ukraine.
The President of Ukraine also claimed at the end of November that someone in Ukraine was preparing to launch a coup in early December, and that people from Russia were involved. Although there was no coup in Ukraine in the end, Ukraine’s testimony of history also made NATO afraid of being careless.
The highly tense situation in Ukraine also forced Biden to urgently come to Putin to communicate face-to-face, hoping to detect the reality of this military action. Biden told Putin to warn him not to invade Ukraine, otherwise the United States will unite with its allies to impose “unseen strong economic sanctions” on Russia.
At the same time, the US also emphasized its support for Ukraine’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and hopes that Russia will cool down the current state of tension and return all disputes to diplomatic means to resolve.
Well, judging from the post-meeting statements issued by both parties, we still don’t see whether Putin will send troops or give up sending troops. But we want to remind everyone that although this tension occurred in Eastern Europe, it is likely to involve cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan. Whether military conflicts will break out in the Taiwan Strait is actually very related to Russia-Ukraine relations. how to say? Let’s start with three questions respectively.
Question 1: Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine?
There are several deep reasons behind this problem.
<<原因一：历史、文化、宗教的复杂渊源与矛盾>>
The first reason is that the two sides have quite complicated origins and contradictions in terms of history, culture, and religion. Russia and Ukraine are neighbors and brothers geographically. They were both ruled by the Mongol Empire in the 14th century. At that time, the Mongols established the “Qincha Khanate”, also called the “Golden Horde” with Ukraine as the center. , Ruled Ukraine and Russia for about two hundred years.
But after the Mongols withdrew, Ukraine was ruled by the Kingdom of Poland and gradually influenced by Catholic culture. After World War II, Ukraine was imprisoned by the former Soviet Union in the iron curtain of communism, and massacres and famines occurred. The influence of various historical factors has led to the fact that the territory of Ukraine today can be roughly divided into two parts, the east and the west.
In the Udon region east of the Niepr River, the Unan region, the Crimea Peninsula and other places, there are many people who have migrated from Russia. Almost all of them are pro-Russian politically and believe in Orthodox Church; while the western and northern regions of Ukraine, It is mainly the original Ukrainians. They are influenced by Catholic culture and oppose dictatorship, so they are politically close to Western European and American countries. Therefore, Ukraine not only wants to join the European Union, but also wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Therefore, for Putin and the Russians in Ukraine, Ukraine and Russia are relatively close, but for the people in the Usi region, Russia has little to do with them. They are more willing to be close to Europe and the United States, and yearn for freedom and freedom. democracy. Such complicated historical and cultural factors have created constant love-hate entanglements between Russia and Ukraine.
<<原因二：乌克兰气候温暖 是欧洲粮仓>>
The second reason is that Ukraine has a warmer climate than Russia and is an important granary in Europe. Everyone knows that Russia has a high latitude and a severely cold climate. Although the export volume of wheat is the largest in the world, many land is still unfavorable for farming. Ukraine has a low latitude and relatively warm climate. It is an important granary in Europe. Ukraine became the world‘s second largest food exporter at the beginning of this year, second only to the United States.
Therefore, for Russia, if it can control Ukraine, it can become the world‘s largest food exporter, which will not only greatly increase Russia’s economic income, but also increase Russia’s international influence.
<<原因三：乌克兰邻接黑海 俄罗斯寻找出海口>>
The third reason is geopolitics. Ukraine is located to the north of the Black Sea, and Russia hopes to find an outlet to the sea, go south to the Mediterranean, and expand its maritime military power.
As we all know, although Russia has a vast territory, it is connected to the Eurasian continent to the south and the Arctic Ocean to the north. The lack of adequate access to the sea is not conducive to the development of naval power. However, southern Ukraine is connected to the Black Sea, and the port will not be frozen, and it can directly enter the Mediterranean, southern Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. Therefore, southern Ukraine has always been a key military base coveted by Russia.
Therefore, Putin annexed the Crimea Peninsula in southern Ukraine in 2014. In addition to the fact that more than 60% of the population there are Russians, more importantly, the Crimean Peninsula has “Sevastopol”, also called “Sevastopol”. Sevanburgh, this port city used to be the base of the Russian “Black Sea Fleet”. Therefore, Putin won Crimea, which is equivalent to allowing the Russian navy to find an important outlet and base.
<<原因四：阻止北约东扩 避免直接威胁俄罗斯>>
The fourth reason is that Russia wants to prevent NATO from expanding eastward and avoid directly threatening Russia’s military power and security. As you all know, the purpose of NATO’s original establishment was to prevent the former Soviet Union from exporting and expanding communism to Western Europe. Later, the Soviet Union disintegrated, but the West was still quite defensive against military threats to Russia, so NATO became an international military organization to defend against Russia.
Ukraine had been persecuted by Soviet communism before, so they actively wanted to join NATO, hoping that NATO would protect Ukraine; but on the other hand, Russia was also worried that once Ukraine joined NATO, the weapons, missiles, radars, etc. of European and American countries would be affected. If you can station in Ukraine, you can monitor and prevent Russia more closely, and it also poses a military threat to Russia.
So, why does Russia always want to take Ukraine? There are military considerations behind it. It wants to use Ukraine as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO, and it wants Ukraine to “de-NATO” and “de-Americanize” and reduce Threat to Russia.
Well, after understanding why Russia has always wanted to invade Ukraine, the next question is to ask. (Crossroads of the world)
Question 2: Does Putin really want to invade Ukraine now?
In my opinion, although Putin is now dispatching a large army to deploy on the Ukrainian border, the probability that Putin really wants to invade Ukraine on a large scale should not normally be high. Putin’s main purpose should be to “use war to force peace” and to use war to force European countries to pass the operation of the “Beixi No. 2” natural gas pipeline as soon as possible. how to say?
As you all know, Russia’s biggest concern is Ukraine’s joining NATO. Therefore, at the end of March this year, Putin once mobilized an army of 120,000 and assembled on the Ukrainian border, making a tense posture that he wanted to go to war at any time. But in the end, the troop withdrawal was suddenly announced, which eased the situation.
This move actually reflects Putin’s scheming plan. He does not really want to have a military conflict with NATO for Ukraine. On the contrary, he wants to pretend to go to war through such “war to force peace”, and then intervene in European and American countries. After communication, he suddenly took the initiative to withdraw troops.
In this way, on the surface it is a kind response to the European and American countries, but in fact it is tantamount to “softly pressing” NATO, saying that I have taken the initiative to give up this big step, then you have to make concessions and do not allow Ukraine to join NATO. , Otherwise I will be preemptive.
Simply put, Putin used “preparation” to create bargaining chips and negotiate with Western countries. He judged that the U.S. and the CCP are in a quarrel, and they will definitely make concessions on the European side, not wanting to burn the candles at both ends. From a later point of view, Ukraine has indeed failed to join NATO, and the construction of the “Beixi-2” natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany has also been completed. Therefore, Putin’s move of “advanced retreat” did achieve what he wanted. the goal of.
Now that Putin is sending out heavy troops again, should he follow the law and create bargaining chips? It is not yet known, but for Putin, if he actually invades Ukraine at present, the risks for him may far outweigh the benefits.
For example, although Russia’s military power is far stronger than Eastern European countries, Russia’s economy is still very fragile, and it needs to rely on exports of oil, natural gas, wheat, etc. to fill its households. However, if it sends troops to Ukraine at this time, then Biden has already stated clearly that it will launch unprecedented economic sanctions to fight back. By then, Russia’s economy and people’s lives will definitely become worse, and it will even be difficult to raise the army, so what? manage?
In addition, although the construction of the “Beixi No. 2” natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany has been completed, Germany has urgently announced the suspension of approval, which means that Beixi No. 2 cannot be used. If Putin chooses to go to war, it will only shut down Beixi-2 indefinitely, which will be even more detrimental to Russia’s export of natural gas to earn foreign exchange, and it will also detrimental to Putin’s European military layout.
Moreover, the epidemic situation in Russia has always been high, and it is the most severely affected area in Europe. So, Putin’s gathering of hundreds of thousands of troops at this time will increase the risk of military infections? Moreover, if one day the Russian epidemic is too serious and the international community needs to lend a helping hand, then if Putin attacks Ukraine, will anyone lend a helping hand? This is also the key point that Putin must consider.
Yes, maybe the CCP will be happy to extend a helping hand, but does Putin really believe in the CCP? Will he believe in the quality of the CCP’s vaccines? Would he hope to owe favor to the CCP, let himself become passive, and become demanding from the CCP? I think Putin doesn’t want this. Putin doesn’t want Russia to become the “accompany country” of the CCP.
Therefore, although we can’t guarantee that Putin will not attack Ukraine, overall, the probability of Putin really going to war should not be high unless he wants to become the second “chief accelerator.” Okay, then let’s look at the third question again.
Question 3: Is it dangerous for Russia to invade Ukraine and Taiwan?
In fact, we have said in the past that if a war between Russia and Ukraine occurs, it may indeed pose a certain threat to Taiwan. The main reason is that if the United States and NATO enter the European battlefield, they are likely to disperse the deployment of US troops in the Indo-Pacific region and disperse the US military’s defense forces against the Taiwan Strait.
Although the U.S. military is powerful and basically capable of coping with two wars at the same time in the world, this kind of “candle burning at both ends” is too risky and will cause too much military and economic damage to the United States, so if it really happens in Eastern Europe The war is tantamount to turning the tiger away from the mountain, and it is tantamount to opening a good opportunity for the CCP in the Taiwan Strait. Then Taiwan will be exposed to the risk of war.
In particular, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in early July made the CCP suspect that the U.S. military was dying and the U.S. military was weakened. Therefore, once war starts in Europe, the possibility of the CCP taking the opportunity to invade the Taiwan Strait will rise sharply.
However, in response to this, the White House has already responded. The White House emphasized that the US will take all actions to ensure that the CCP cannot take Taiwan by force.
U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: “The U.S. will take all possible measures from both deterrence and diplomacy to ensure that the situation you describe about Taiwan will never happen.”
Moreover, Biden also made it clear on December 8 that if Russia invades Ukraine, then the United States will not unilaterally send troops to fight against Russia. It will all depend on NATO’s arrangements at that time. In other words, it can be seen from the two speeches made by the White House that the United States has tried its best to avoid war with Russia in Europe. The purpose is not to be distracted. It should concentrate its strength on the defense of the Taiwan Strait and respond to the military threat of the CCP.
From another perspective, from the standpoint of Russia, it does not hope that the CCP will really use force to capture Taiwan. why? Because this will affect Russia’s interests. Think about it, now that the United States and China are in a fierce confrontation. The two sides are competing and wrestling at the Taiwanese gambling table. It is in this situation that Russia creates tension in Europe to attract the United States to be willing to negotiate and exchange interests.
However, if the CCP really uses force to take Taiwan and the CCP dominates East Asia, the confrontation between the United States and the CCP will lose an important battlefield, and the confrontation between the two sides will temporarily cease. Then Russia wants to “watch the tigers from the mountain.” “The opportunity to profit from it is gone. right?
Therefore, a few days ago Putin was asked by reporters whether the CCP would use force against Taiwan. Putin answered very astutely. He said that Beijing does not need to use force to reunify Taiwan, but only depends on economic strength. In fact, there is something in this sentence. On the surface it is touting the CCP and its economy is very strong, but in fact it is also implying that the CCP does not want them to use force against Taiwan. Therefore, with this beautiful scene, Beijing is a step down. .
Of course, Putin may also have an implication. He believes that the current military strength of the CCP is not enough to confront the US and not enough to win Taiwan. Therefore, he used this kind of euphemism to soothe the CCP. But in any case, if the CCP uses force in the Taiwan Strait to take Taiwan, it is indeed not in the interests of the United States and Russia.
International politicians have intensively warned, is there a danger in Taiwan?
However, we also want to remind our friends in Taiwan again not to take this lightly and not to “outsource” all the responsibility of defending Taiwan to the international community. Especially recently, the international community has frequently warned the CCP not to use force against Taiwan. This point deserves our vigilance.
For example, on December 1, the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated in a speech that “if something happens in Taiwan is something wrong with Japan,” he also warned the CCP that “taking military adventures is tantamount to a road to economic suicide.”
On the same day, former US President Trump revealed that the CCP might take action against Taiwan after the Beijing Winter Olympics next year.
On December 3, US Secretary of State Blincoln warned that any measures taken by the CCP to invade Taiwan will have “dire consequences.”
On December 4th, US Secretary of Defense Austin said that the Chinese military planes have been harassing the surrounding areas of Taiwan frequently, as if they were “rehearsing.”
On December 6, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Qiu Guozheng also said that he agreed with the United States’ statement that the joint plane harassment was a drill attack on Taiwan. He also emphasized that “the national army is ready to fight at any time.”
On December 7, U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan emphasized that he would do everything possible to prevent China from using force to unify Taiwan.
Well, why do these heavyweight international politicians warn the CCP not to use force against Taiwan so intensively? Is it a coincidence? Or what special information did the United States and Japan receive? We don’t know, but the more prevention, the less risk. Therefore, Taiwan must remain vigilant and never let up.
Finally, let’s say it again. As I just said, there are several main reasons why Russia has always wanted to invade Ukraine:
Reason 1: The two countries have complicated origins and contradictions in history, culture and religion.
Reason 2: Ukraine has a warm climate, is a European granary, and a major food exporter in the world.
Reason three: Ukraine is adjacent to the Black Sea, and Russia is looking for an outlet to expand its naval power.
Reason 4: Prevent NATO from expanding into Eastern Europe and avoid direct threats to Russia.
Okay, let’s talk about it today. If you like our program, please remember to subscribe, leave a message, press like, and please introduce it to more friends. Thank you for watching and we will meet again next time. (Crossroads of the world)
—
Ebb
The Red Devils
Defeated
Xia disappears and the flowers are gone
The full moon in the mirror shines on Chang’an
Tang Hao
(Editor in charge: Liu Mingxiang)
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