Buenos Aires –
One day after first general strike against the new government of President Javier Milei, led by the General Confederation of Labor (CGT), the largest and most influential in the country, Argentine society is divided regarding the impact of the strike for the administration that began just 45 days ago.
The purpose of the strike was to mobilize the population against a large part of the reforms that the government promoted through a mega decree of necessity and urgency (DNU) – with changes in 366 articles of the National Constitution – and the “Law of Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines” – known as the “Omnibus Law” – which proposes the reform of 534 articles of the Argentine Magna Carta.
Read also: Devaluation of the peso and reduction of subsidies: Milei’s economic package to “neutralize” the crisis in Argentina
When he announced the sending of the project to Congress, Milei himself described these proposals as “the most ambitious reform process of the last 40 years so that Argentina once again becomes a world power.” It represents a profound reform of the State through the application of new economic, social and labor policies.
Unions and those who demonstrated Tuesday oppose many of these changes.
Disparate visions of the impact of unemployment
The balance of the general strike was uneven, depending on the sector that evaluates it.
The national government considered that it was “a measure without force” and the Minister of National Security herself, Patricia Bullrich, assured that only about 40,000 people participated. The figure, said the minister, “is equivalent to 0.19% of Argentina’s workers.”
For its part, the union sector considered that the general strike had a good call and, in the words of one of the heads of the labor union that called for the strike, Héctor Daer, they are going to “continue the fight without taking a step back until the measures fall” promoted by Milei.
The Federation of Commerce and Industry of the City of Buenos Aires (Fecoba) announced that the level of compliance with the strike in businesses in the Argentine capital was less than 4%. “We detected a strong need to open to sell,” said its president, Fabián Castillo.
After this initial impact of the strike, the Voice of America consulted a series of experts to shed light on certain questions that arose after the protest. What will happen to the reforms promoted by Milei? What direction will the Argentine economy take in the coming months? What will be the position adopted by the government after the mobilization?
Photo gallery In Photos | In front of Congress, thousands of Argentines reject Javier Milei’s policies
Thousands of Argentines participated on Wednesday, January 24, in the first work stoppage during the administration of President Javier Milei, just 45 days into his administration.
Also read: Milei questions opposition to his reforms in a key week where he faces the first strike
The government’s position after the general strike
The government criticized the union call and considered that it had a “very low” turnout.
“The strike was attended by 40,000 people, which are the ones we saw on the street. The mobilization lasted three hours, transportation functioned normally until 7:00 p.m. (hours) and commercial activity has been absolutely normal. Even the reports of different associations indicate that compliance has been very low,” emphasized the presidential spokesperson, Manuel Adorni.
In dialogue with the VOA, The political scientist and analyst residing in Córdoba, Nayet Kademián, explained: “I do not believe that unemployment is going to be a determinant of the direction of the public policies that this government is going to take, but that the reforms are going to be rather conditioned by the support by the governors of the provinces, who are the ones who are most affected today by the fall in economic activity and, therefore, in revenue.”
Regarding the eventual “success or failure of the Milei government,” political scientist Paula Brusco, who is director of the consulting firm Edelman Global Advisory in Argentina, said that this “will depend on the intelligence of his team to build. The decree governments demonstrate, Naturally, an unhealthy institutional weakness for the delicate moment that Argentina is going through.”
Also read: IMF praises Milei policies in Argentina and says they will protect the most vulnerable
However, the VOA He confirmed during a tour of different parts of Buenos Aires that the people who mobilized seemed concerned about the economic direction of the country. “The rights of the workers are at stake,” declared Javier, from the Truckers union. Others were opposed to the omnibus law and social cuts.
The debate in Congress and the economic direction
The national government has its sights set on the National Congress, where the State reforms proposed in the so-called omnibus law and the validity – or not – of the mega decree of necessity and urgency that Milei launched at the beginning of its mandate are currently being debated. management.
“I think that the aspect that the president has to work on the most in the short term is maintaining political alliances and his allies in the Congressional benches to carry out the changes and measures that he intends,” he explained to the VOA the political scientist Brusco.
The economy continues to be a challenge in Argentina. In the last week it became the country with the highest inflation in the world in 2023. The index published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) showed that the price increase climbed to 211.4%, thus surpassing Lebanon , with an official inflation of 192%, and to Venezuela itself, with 189.8%.
“The future economic outlook is frankly negative, with inflation that could reach 100% in the next 4 months,” he told the VOA the economist Juan Manuel Telechea, director of the Institute of Work and Economy of the German Abdala Foundation.
He then warned that these statistics “will impact the income of the entire population, but fundamentally in the informal sector and retirees, which will lead to a sharp drop in economic activity.”
According to Leandro Mora Alfonsín, an economist specialized in productive development and former national director of Industrial Policy, “the deregulations that accompany the government’s economic plan” influence the loss of material and organizational capabilities on the part of the unions and contributed to unemployment.
In fact, he explains, in Wednesday’s strike “independent workers and not just labor unions converged.”
Alfonsín estimates that Argentina’s economic prospects will be marked by the degree of success demonstrated by the Milei reforms and listed “three latent risks” for the future: market confidence, eventual loss of competitiveness of the exchange rate when liquidate the harvest of the agricultural sector and the social equation determined by low incomes and very high inflation.
“The cooling of the economy will put a lot of pressure on the lower and lower middle class,” said the economist.
Expectations for State reform
While the thousands of people who participated in the demonstration on Wednesday afternoon were losing concentration, the government managed to get part of the opposition to accompany the State reform project proposed by Milei in the commissions of the Chamber of Deputies of the National Congress.
With the approved commission opinion – as it is called in Argentina – the ruling party was in a position to call a plenary session, which in principle would occur next Tuesday. It is estimated that it will be a marathon session with hours of debate, the specialists told the VOA.
Although the government gave in to the demands of some sectors of the opposition and reduced the number of articles to be discussed, at the center of the project is the economic reform program that the libertarian president has promoted from day one.
In the midst of the general strike, another of the general secretaries of the labor union that called for the strike, Pablo Moyano, sent a message to the deputies who will vote on the reforms: “You are facing a historic decision so that you can say if you are with the workers or with corporations. “Do not betray the workers,” the union leader warned.
Asked about these statements, presidential spokesperson Manuel Adorni ratified next week’s session and assured: “The north is clear and we are not going to move even half an inch because we want zero deficit.”
Although it has called a session, the analysts contacted for this article understand that the government still needs to continue negotiating and that there is no guarantee that deputies will not have to move the date again to a later time. Javier Milei, as he himself expressed, wants the reform to be approved as soon as possible.
[Con la colaboración de Kriscia Recinos en Buenos Aires]
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