The Thai population has said a clear ‘enough’ to the regime Prayut Chan-ocha born from the 2014 coup. When the votes were counted, the Commission electoral certified this morning the resounding victory of the opposition party Move Forward (in the photo the leader Pita Limjaroenrat)which obtained 151 seats out of the 500 up for grabs Camera in yesterday’s legislative elections. The second party, with 141 seats, is the Puea Thai, who had won every election since 2001 and had twice been ousted by coups. For the parties of the outgoing government coalition it was a defeat: the Bhumjaithai won 71 seats, the Palang Pracharat 40, and the new movement of the outgoing prime minister Prayuth only 36. To form a government, which will be elected by Rooms gathered, 376 votes will be needed. The Senate of 250 members is however entirely appointed by the army, and the Move Forward has always stated that he never wants to come to terms with the military and the parties that supported General Prayuth after the 2014 coup.
Election night – The count certified an initial heads up between the Puea Thai dell’ex premier Thaksin Shinawatrastrong of his traditional fiefdoms in the countryside in the north, and the progressive Move Forwardwho has made inroads among the young people and is almost winning the 33 seats up for grabs in the capital Bangkok. In the 400 seats of the Camera awarded by the majority method, the two parties were virtually tied with about 23% each; but in the list vote, with which the remaining 100 seats will be assigned, the Move Forward has a resounding advantage, with over 31% of the preferences.
For the coalition of the outgoing government, however, one has emerged defeat. The third party is the Bhumjaithai, that he was part of that covenant; the conservative pole Palang Pracharat paid dearly for the division between Prime Minister Prayuth, whose new party is only fifth in the tally, and the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, at the fourth moment. If they were to agree, and have already sent signals for dialogue, the Move Forward and the Puea Thai they would probably be able to put together a majority at the Camera. But for the official results we will have to wait days. Above all, weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations are expected for the votes of the 250 senators appointed by the army, essential to get to the election of the premier in Rooms gathered. Already in 2019 those votes allowed a Prayuth to build one coalition with various minor parties excluding Puea Thai, the first party at the time.
However, the population’s desire for reform is now so much in the majority that excluding the two most popular parties would be a sensational slap in the face. democracy, even in a country where inequalities and abuses of the establishment are traditionally welcomed with passivity. However, the will to stay should not be underestimated INFLUENCE at any cost of the monarchist elite accustomed to command, which sees the emergence of the Move Forward like one existential threat: the party is in fact asking to limit influence of the army and even to reform the lese majeste law, used to punish the activists Democrats in a country where the king is considered semi-divine.
To get out of this opposition between two fields, a hybrid coalition government could also emerge. Already during the electoral campaign, the hypothesis of an agreement between Thaksin and important exponents of the outgoing government (in particular the former general Prawitgreat operator of the Senate), which would allow the former premier to return from self-exile without going through prison to serve a sentence dating back to 2008. For twenty years he was the nemesis of the conservatives, fearful of being replaced by his field in the power apparatus. But the fact that among the new generations and in the capital depopulates the Move Forwardwith his radical demands, could convince the elite that the 73-year-old Thaksin, between the two, is now the lesser evil.