Bruxelles. Moratorium on new contracts, temporary derogation for existing ones, stop on the import of crude oil but not that delivered via pipes, and then again restrictions on derivative products. The European Commission is working on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which also includes the energy sector. The college of commissioners will meet again on April 27, and therefore the plan will not be unveiled for ten days, but work is already underway to find a solution that can be the subject of an agreement between the Twenty-seven, who are holding back on gas and crude oil. remain divided. It is mainly Germany and Hungary that have reservations, given the direct exposure to the product purchased from Moscow and the impact deriving from a reduction in demand.
The German economy depends on Russian crude for about 35% of the national barrel import. Berlin is aware of the stakes. We cannot continue to supply the Russian Federation with the economic weapon with which to continue to finance military operations on Ukrainian soil, but neither can we turn off the taps. The German government is studying the possibility of reviewing contracts that could lead to a 10% cut in purchases as early as the next few weeks, but doing more would have a cost that the Bundesrepublik would objectively have difficulty absorbing. A similar problem for Budapest, even more linked to the energy bought in Russia. Giving up would kill the economy, a concept that freshly re-elected Prime Minister Viktor Orban has expressed over and over again.
The measures under consideration by the Commission therefore intend to move towards a gradual and partial oil embargo. This is the key which, according to the technicians of the community executive, would make it possible to create conditions that are useful for that unanimity that has yet to be found. The scheme adopted for coal, at the center of the latest package of restrictive measures on which the heads of state and government have been able to find an agreement, is essentially traced. Here the ban on signing new contracts is accompanied by a period of four months to put an end to existing ones. For oil we think the same way.
In Brussels an attempt is made to work in the utmost secrecy because every leak could offer Putin useful elements of countermeasures, and reasons for friction to the Member States. It is no coincidence that there are no official estimates of the impact of these measures under study at the moment. It is not excluded that an extraordinary summit of the European Council may be convened, but in any case not before April 24th. The second round of the French elections is set for that day, and the calendar reads “Orthodox Easter”. Net of electoral and religious appointments, time also allows EU members to continue with the search for commercial alternatives. Detaching from the Russian supplier will only really be possible in the presence of new importers, as demonstrated by the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, on his trip to Algeria.