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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) European stock markets showed little movement on a day full of macro data and while awaiting the decisions that the Federal Reserve will announce tomorrow on monetary policy, at the end of the two-day meeting of the Fomc, its arm operating. But European markets will remain closed tomorrow for Labor Day and so investors prefer to adopt a cautious attitude. Even more so as numerous crucial macro data are on the calendar today, including European inflation. Furthermore, the quarterly reporting season continues at full speed. Initially, the Ftse Mib is just above parity. The other indices are stable, with the exception of the Madrid one, which continues to pay the price to the more unstable political framework, following the decision of the Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, to remain at the helm of the country. In Italy the spread is rising to around 133 points, with the yield on ten-year BTPs at 3.86% from 3.81% at yesterday’s closing.
Focus on macro data
Investors’ attention will be focused above all on Eurozone inflation data, crucial for the decisions of the European Central Bank, which according to experts should proceed with a rate cut as early as June. Market expectations are betting on a slowdown in the core data, after inflation in Germany (published on Monday 29 April) was stable in April at +2.2% on year, in line with forecasts and at the lowest levels from May 2021. Preliminary GDP data for the main Eurozone economies are also scheduled, with growth expected to return to positive after the declines at the end of the year. In France, GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, when the change was 0.1%. On a year-on-year basis, GDP rose by 1.1%. In Spain in the first quarter growth reached 0.7%, in line with the previous three months (revised). On an annual basis the change was 2.4%.
The meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Federal Reserve also starts today, which will end tomorrow with the press conference of President Jerome Powell, from which we expect to understand whether the hypothesis of a cut in the cost of money in the second part of the year is still possible, after the recent macro data, with inflation still at high levels. Meanwhile, the quarterly season continues with some big names competing on both sides of the ocean: today on the calendar, among others, Amazon, McDonald’s and Coca-Cola.
In Piazza Affari, eyes on Stellantis
In Milan, the actions of Stellar, after the announcement of the quarterly report, with revenues lower than expected and equal to 41.7 billion euros, down 12%. The stocks lose share, despite the group’s CFO, Natalie Knight, confirming the estimates for 2024. “We confirm our guidance for the year, it is a very important thing,” she said, recalling that the guidance includes the commitment minimum to achieve a double-digit adjusted operating profit (Aoi) margin in 2024, as well as positive net industrial cash flow despite macroeconomic uncertainties. “We expect that the new products will help accelerate the momentum as the year continues, especially in the second half of the year,” she explained. On the auto front, Volkswagen’s top management also released the accounts for the January-March period: net profit fell by 21.6% on an annual basis, to 3.71 billion euros, on a turnover of 75.46 billion , down 1%. Although the numbers are better than expected, the auto group’s shares lose ground. Telecom Italia it is weak, with Vivendi preparing to exit the capital by 2025. The banks are recovering after the collapse of the day before. The managed savings shares are well set up with Finecobank ahead. Also on the rise Eni ed Hera, quest’ultima on the day of the assembly
Exchange rates, euro traded at 1.069 dollars
On the currency side, the euro changes hands at 1.069 dollars and 167.58 yen. Oil is falling with June Brent trading at 88.2 dollars a barrel (-0.25%) and WTI of the same maturity at 82.38 dollars (-0.3%). Natural gas is rising to 28.4 euros per megawatt hour (+1.2%).
Tokyo stock market closes up 1.2%
On the Asian front, the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed in progress with the Nikkei index up by 1.2%, driven by gains in electronics, machinery and automotive stocks, while hopes for growth in company earnings despite uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Mitsubishi Electric shares rose 16% after it forecast a 10.5% increase in full-year net profit. Komatsu closed up 12 percent while Hitachi posted a gain of 8.5 percent. Attention remains on the two-day US central bank meeting starting today.
Meanwhile, economic news has arrived from China: the PMI manufacturing index for April, according to the Office of National Statistics, fell to 50.4 in April compared to 50.8 in March. A small slowdown, sure, but we are still above the threshold of 50 that separates growth from contraction.
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Eleonora Micheli
Radiocor editor