TransferFour contracts are expiring at Real Madrid, plus two people on loan whose future has not yet been clarified. REAL TOTAL gives probabilities about Toni Kroos, Nacho Fernández, Luka Modrić and Co.
Toni Kroos
There is no doubt about it: Toni Kroos will receive an offer from Real Madrid and has apparently had one for a long time. But how does the 34-year-old decide? After the championship and the CL final as well as a major tournament in front of him, he could leave in a similar way to Zinédine Zidane in 2006 – he was actually too good to end his career, as the 2006 World Cup showed. After all: regardless of how the European Championship goes, the decision to extend or end your career will be made before the tournament. Since Kroos feels well himself, has no problems or minor injuries and is more than appreciated not only by his teammates and coaches, but also by fans, it is anything but unlikely that he will stay. Especially since the perspective is right for him: with a young, ambitious team there are even more titles possible, especially for him as mentors in midfield, plus the rebuilt Bernabéu, his family feels right at home in Madrid and whether he will really miss the chance to play together with an exceptional player Kylian Mbappé? Nevertheless: Only Toni Kroos alone decides – extend or end his career.
Probability of staying: 60%
Luka Modric
Modrić seems to have been on a farewell tour of Spanish stadiums for some time – Photo: IMAGO / Alex Perez
“He wants to stay,” said Predrag Mijatović, a confidant of Luka Modrić, and advisor Vladica Lemić also leaves the door open: “Nothing is clear yet.” But it is also clear: the 38-year-old Croatian wants to play more. Although he will make 43 appearances (2,140 minutes) as a high-class reservist in 2023/24, he still seems to have so much energy within him, which would be enough for a regular place elsewhere, where he would not stand in the way of any upheaval or a number of talents. Not only has former club Dinamo Zagreb been publicly courting the 2018 world footballer, but a move to the USA or other “retirement leagues” is also conceivable. And yet: Modrić’s biggest dream is and remains an end to his career in Madrid, which is why the club will make him an offer, but not under the conditions in terms of playing time that the ambitious Croatian imagines. The last away games in LaLiga in particular seemed like a farewell tour for “Lukita”, who is regularly greeted with applause – whether the shouts of “Luka quedate” from his own fans can change his mind and he can connect more with his mentor. can befriend the role?
Probability of staying: 30%
Nacho Fernandez
Nacho has just fulfilled a lifelong dream and achieved everything? Photo: realmadrid.com
For Nacho Fernández, the signs of farewell are even clearer than for other stars with an expiring contract. Having started in Real Madrid’s youth ranks in 2001, this season should feel like the last level for him, after all, the 34-year-old was the first captain to lead the Merengues not only to the championship, but also to the final of the premier class. Lifelong dream – once to give Cibeles a scarf, flag and kiss – fulfilled! It’s the same with Nacho as it is with Modrić: There’s still a lot of football left in him, at least more than just being the fourth central defender – even the European Championship train doesn’t seem to have left the mark for him – especially since Real Madrid once again have a defensive back with Leny Yoro. Has talent on the hook. Nacho doesn’t seem to want to stand in the way of this change, sees it as a good time to say goodbye and get to know a new culture again – possibly in the USA – even though he, like his wife and children, comes from the Madrid area. An end, and with it the dream of many fans of the first one-club man since Manolo Sanchís, is not unthinkable, and yet very likely.
Probability of staying: 20%
Joselu
Relegated for the second time in a row a year ago, but suddenly champions and soon CL winners in 2024? Joselu’s dream has become real – and it’s far from over! Originally planned as a backup for Karim Benzema, the 34-year-old made good with 16 goals and three assists this season, sent Los Blancos to Wembley with a brace, and should only be waiting for the call from Florentino Pérez. Will this also come, combined with the purchase option of an almost ridiculous 1.5 million euros that Real would have to pay to Espanyol? Certainly! Because Joselu knows his place, not only currently, but also if Mbappé joins Endrick in the summer – Joselu seems to be the ideal joker for the final phase of a difficult game and Real Madrid would do well to have Daniel Carvajal’s brother-in-law there not just as a joker in the stands at the next CL final.
Probability of staying: 80%
Lucas Vazquez
Similar to Joselu, Lucas Vázquez also stands for one thing: complete dedication. And about full integration into a group of players who definitely have more talent and quality, but “Cafucas” is a role model especially for young Madridistas, has fought for his place in the team and is patiently waiting for his chances. When he plays, there may be mistakes, like in the first leg in Munich (2:2), but he led Real to victories against Alavés (1:0) and Barcelona (3:2) with four goals. And as long as a possible replacement for Daniel Carvajal like Achraf Hakimi is not yet available, but Carvajal himself still plays so well – next season as the first captain? – Vázquez fills the role of backup properly and is likely to receive an offer and accept it without any arrogant demands. Or?
Probability of staying: 50%
Kepa Arrizabalaga
Kepa Arrizabalaga clearly looked like an exit in the spring when Andriy Lunin finally replaced the Chelsea loanee in goal. And even after Thibaut Courtois’ comeback, the 29-year-old’s chances of playing, as well as his probability of staying, have fallen significantly. And yet something has happened: Lunin’s change of advisor to Jorge Mendes. The Ukrainian’s contract expires in 2025, so it will either be extended in the summer or he will be sold – also to be number one somewhere else. At least the place in Courtois’ shadow could become available for Kepa, provided that he becomes the old man, as expected. Especially since the goalkeeper is more than integrated, Lunin tipped Bernardo Silva during the penalty shootout in Manchester and Carlo Ancelotti also emphasized: “I’m also talking about Kepa, who behaved spectacularly on the bench, helping his teammates. He deserves to play a game.“Kepa deserves at least a 20th appearance – and maybe more in the coming season? At almost 30 years old, he seems to have his most ambitious years behind him and could instead take one or two titles with Los Blancos – but a lot still has to happen for that to happen.
Probability of staying: 10%
Whether the probability is high or low, it could still take a while for the decisions to be made, as the extensions were only announced at the end of June in the summer of 2023. At least Real Madrid should make an offer to all five of them apart from Kepa – whether they accept now depends only on them, no longer on the course of the season, and therefore not on the outcome of the CL final.
- Kroos: Announcement on June 21, 2023
- Nacho: Announced on June 22, 2023
- Modrić: Announcement on June 26, 2023
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Transfer
Extend or leave? Probabilities for Kroos, Nacho, Modrić and Co.
Four contracts are expiring at Real Madrid, as well as two loans whose future has not yet been clarified. REAL TOTAL gives probabilities about Toni Kroos, Nacho Fernández, Luka Modrić and Co.
13.05.2024, 11:53