The reform of the taxation of multinationals arrives at the last political step, with an outcome now taken for granted after the agreement reached on 1 July between 130 countries in the OECD headquarters. At the end, or almost, of a long and bumpy journey, the G20 under the Italian presidency, underway today and tomorrow in Venice, will give the green light to the rules that, at least in intentions, should stop the race to tax havens and “benevolent” jurisdictions : or towards “the country where you pay less taxes”, in the words of the EU Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni.
After the endorsement of the G20 by the ministers of the economy and central bankers, there will still be a few months to fine-tune the technical aspects and persuade the states that continue to put their feet up, including Ireland, Estonia and Hungary. The appointment is for October, still in the OECD headquarters.
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The global minimum tax of “at least” 15% on the income of multinationals (but there is also discussion on the possibility of setting a higher rate) and the redistribution between countries of the levy are the two pillars of the tax package, the main dossier of the summit : just a few months ago, the agreement on an issue that affects national sovereignty like few others seemed far from within reach. Decisive was the push given to the negotiations by the US president, Joe Biden, who is committed to changing the rules of the American tax authorities.
In all, 9 out of 139 governments still resist: in addition to the three European countries, there are Peru, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Kenya. Cyprus did not participate in the negotiations. The 130 states that support the agreement represent 90% of world GDP. Once the technical details have been defined, a step that is far from trivial, the new rules could be activated starting from 2023 and generate additional revenues of 150 billion dollars a year, according to the calculations of the OECD.
The agreement on the global taxation of multinationals, historic precisely because it concerns such a sensitive issue, has repercussions on the confrontation-clash between the United States and the European Union on national digital taxes and remains conditioned by it. The French minister, Bruno Le Maire, a few days ago, said that Paris is ready to make a binding commitment to repeal its web tax, as soon as the global minimum tax comes into force. At the same time, Brussels nevertheless remains intent on pursuing its own separate taxation project for digital services.