NEW YORK. The die is cast, revenge is ripe. Word of Joe Biden who yesterday, speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One headed to Florida, announced that he had decided how to respond to the attack on US troops in Jordan. The options against what he defined as an Iranian-inspired action albeit implemented by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (a Shiite paramilitary holding close to Tehran) could consist of a raid against targets of the Axis of Resistance or directly of the Islamic Republic. The latter hypothesis invoked by the hawks of the Republican Party, but which would be unprecedented and likely to trigger a regional war. Therefore in principle it should be discarded as the American president himself suggests: “I don’t want an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East.”
And last night, Iraq’s Iran-linked Kataib Hezbollah militias announced they would end military operations against American troops in the region. A decision taken to avoid “embarrassment” for the Iraqi government, it was explained in a statement, as reported by the international media.
Meanwhile, US diplomacy is at work just as negotiations are underway for a new “roadmap” towards a cease and fire and the release of the hostages still in the hands of Hamas. The National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, met with Qatari leaders yesterday just as the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will arrive in Israel for a two-day visit next Saturday: it is his sixth visit. The head of the Hamas political office, Ismail Haniyeh, is expected in Cairo to discuss the proposal put forward by Egypt, Qatar and the United States on a ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of prisoners.
“We received the proposal in Paris and the movement is studying and evaluating it,” Haniyeh said, explaining that Hamas is willing to “discuss any serious and practical initiative or idea, provided it leads to a complete cessation of aggression.” Availability, but also firmness therefore on the part of the Palestinian Islamist movement, as reiterated in light of the meeting that its leaders had in Beirut with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).
“There will be no exchange of prisoners until Israel’s aggression in Gaza stops,” reads a joint note released on social media. What made the path towards a hypothesis of agreement falter was the exchange of fire that characterized the areas outside and inside the Strip yesterday. Following the salvos of rockets fired yesterday from Gaza towards Tel Aviv and the surrounding area, the Israeli air force hit and destroyed the positions from where the attack began and also neutralized mortars ready to fire. High tension, therefore, dampened a few hours later with signs of Hamas’s openness to the agreement.
“We told the mediators that our objective is a permanent ceasefire, but we can achieve it in the second or third phase of an agreement”, comments Mohammad Nazzal, a long-time Hamas exponent. «Without an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, we cannot accept this new proposal – he continues -. But we are ready to achieve this goal gradually.” The potential ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel involves, in fact, three phases. In the first, Israeli women, children and elderly people would be released; in the second all the soldiers of the Jewish State. In the third the restitution of the dead would take place. Israel and Hamas would end the war over the three phases. However, the number of Palestinian prisoners who would be released by Israel is unclear.
«It is a feasible agreement, but I believe it requires a long time for the parties to reach an agreement. In my opinion, the release times would be extended anyway, because Hamas knows well that once all the hostages have been returned, Israel could resume the attack with even greater vehemence – he explains to The print Carlo Biffani, an expert on terrorism, security and intelligence who followed the conflict from the beginning, recounting it in the instant book “Hell and the Flood”, published by Incandenza Edizioni -. Furthermore, it will be necessary to understand who among the detainees in Israeli prisons would be released. Hamas will try in every way to insert the “big guns”, something that no one in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem wants to grant.”
And, in fact, the hawks of the Israeli right promptly raised their voices and, through the voice of Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, defined the agreement as “irresponsible” and a harbinger of a “split in the government”. It is precisely on this potential flaw that Biden’s envoys will have to work to reach a reconciliation by the end of the week.