Thursday (25) begins with divergent signals from abroad, with New York futures indices remaining high, while the main European stock exchanges operate lower amid the wait for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision (BCE) – the first in 2024 among developed economies.
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Beyond the world of stock exchanges, the dollar retreats against rival currencies, interest rates on Treasuries (American debt securities) also fall, oil futures contracts extend yesterday’s gains and advance more than 1%, amid persistent tensions in the Middle East, while futures prices for iron ore they advanced 1.6% in Dalian, quoted at the equivalent of US$137.96 per ton.
Although B3 operates normally, even with the municipal holiday in São Paulo, it is likely that the day will have more restricted liquidity in our markets today. Furthermore, due to the emptier internal agenda, local adjustments must be influenced by external volatility – the EWZ, the main Brazilian ETF traded abroad, for example, rose more than 0.50% in the pre-market.
On the fiscal side, news is expected only next week, as the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), called a meeting for Monday to arbitrate the main issues that generated friction between Deputies and the Government at the beginning of 2024, such as the provisional re-encumbrance measure and the veto on commission amendments – so it is unlikely that many premiums will be removed from the curve in the coming days.
Economic agenda
Brazil: Consumer confidence indicators are expected in January (8 am) and the weekly exchange rate flow (2:30 pm). Among the events, the Treasury will auction pre-fixed public bonds (11 am) and, before going to the event at USP (6:30 pm), the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, will participate virtually in a meeting of the National Monetary Council (CMN) (15h).
USA: Highlight for the first reading of the GDP of the fourth quarter and the consolidated year of 2023, in addition to the price index (PCE) (10:30 am). At the same time, weekly unemployment benefit claims, December results for durable goods orders and the national activity index are published.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at the Economic Club of Chicago (3:35 p.m.). In the corporate sector, American Airlines publishes its balance sheet before the markets open, while Intel and Visa publish it after the close of business.
Europa: The ECB releases its interest rate decision (10:15 am) and, shortly afterwards, there will be a press conference (10:45 am). Earlier, there was an unexpected drop in the German business sentiment index, to 85.2 points in January, compared to 86.3 points in December.
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