L’Iran is increasingly committed to a strategy of increasing tension Middle East e in Asia and the long hand of Ayatollah unexpectedly decided not to spare the Pakistan. Yesterday, missiles were launched from Iranian territory directed towards the border area of Belucistanintended, it seems, to hit military positions of the Sunni extremist group Jaish al-Adl. At the moment there are confirmed victims two kids residents in the area and the reaction of Islamabadfor now at a diplomatic level, has not been long in coming: the Pakistani ambassador to Iran was immediately recalled to his homeland and the Iranian diplomatic representative was summoned by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, which thundered, threatening possible “serious consequences for a totally unacceptable attack.”
Tehran’s move, rather than being linked to the issue Israeli-Palestinianenters into a latent comparison with the Pakistan which has been going on for some time and sees the two regional giants – one the champion of Shia globally and the other, with beyond 230 million of inhabitants, one of the most populous majority countries Sunni to the world – periodically exchanging mutual accusations of undermining their respective internal stability. The area hit by the Iranian attack is particularly hot on the military front safetyconsidering that numerous movements operate there, including the local “branch” of the Taliban where he Balochistan Separatist Movement. The latter very frequently carries out attacks in the border area – almost along a thousand kilometers – striking Pakistani security forces and often attempting to also attack Chinese personnel present in the area. There Chinesein fact, Pakistan has one of its iron allies in the region: Beijing He ran over tens of billions of dollars in the Pakistani version of the infrastructure project Belt & Road Initiative and the port of is located in Baluchistan Try itfundamental for regional logistics.
It is therefore no coincidence that, after the Iranian attack, a call immediately came from the People’s Republic moderation: The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman asked Iran and Pakistan to avoid any actions that could lead to escalation and to work together to promote regional stability. Beijing, always very pragmatic in its international projection, is particularly close to Islamabad as well as Teheran: with the latter in March 2021 a 25-year political, strategic and economic cooperation pact was signed which should lead to a very significant growth in Chinese presence and investments in numerous Iranian economic sectors. Not only that, because in addition to the port of Gwadar, China also uses the Iranian port of Chabaharfinanced by India but used by the People’s Republic as hub alternative landing, also considering the aforementioned precarious situation on Pakistani territory on the security front.
The Chinese therefore looks with great apprehension at the possible developments of the situation between Iran e Pakistan which, it must be said, is unlikely to degenerate at the moment. Among other things, there are reasons for concern Xi Jinping there is no shortage of them, regardless of this flare-up of instability: in Pakistan, in fact, theFebruary 8 political elections with an extremely uncertain outcome. Speaking of an election that has already been postponed once, the conditional is a must because at the moment it is not even clear who the candidates will be. The former prime minister recently returned to his homeland Nawaz Sharif after a four-year escape to London to escape corruption charges. The other prominent national leader, Imran Khanleading the Pakistani government since 2017 e 2022, is himself in prison for similar problems. Moreover, a few days ago, the decision of the Pakistani Election Commission not to allow Khan’s party to use its historic symbol: a cricket bat, to remember the former prime minister’s glorious career in national sport. A hard blow to electoral hopes, in a country where the 50% of the population is practically illiterate and votes on the basis of the symbols they recognize on the voting cards.
If we add to this that in recent weeks Pakistan has begun to expel hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees present on their territory, causing further friction with the Taliban in power in Afghanistan, it is clear how Iranian missiles have hit what is potentially a real powder keg. As mentioned, even if it is possible that Islamabad will carry out at least a limited retaliation, for now there is no far-reaching regional crisis on the horizon: however, there are many parties involved and not always characterized by balance and the ability to act more for the long term rather than for short-term goals. Exactly the opposite of what China preaches and puts into practice.