Over the weekend, Iran directly attacked Israel. We are talking about around 300 drones and missiles that Tehran has sent out. Military expert Fabian Hinz estimates the tactics behind it and how expensive the attack was for Iran.
Fabian Hinz
Military expert
Open the people box. Close the people box
Fabian Hinz works at the British think tank “IISS”. The institute, based in London, is considered a global authority on military and security issues.
SRF News: Are 300 drones and missiles a lot or a little?
Fabian Hinz: That’s a lot. Cruise missiles, drones and ballistic missiles were used in combination. It really looks like an attempt to overwhelm Israel’s excellent air and missile defenses and cause physical damage inside Israel.
What are the respective strengths and weaknesses of ballistic missiles and drones?
Ballistic missiles fly very quickly and at several times the speed of sound. It only takes a few minutes to reach Israel from Iran. This makes it difficult to intercept them. Cruise missiles fly very low. They can be very difficult to detect with ground-based radar. You can change course during the flight. This also makes interception more difficult.
Overall, it was a pretty expensive attack.
Suicide drones work similarly to cruise missiles. They are significantly slower. At the same time, they are so cheap that you can use very large quantities of them.
Why the combination of both?
The combination was intended to cause as much stress as possible to Israel’s defense systems. With over 100 drones and ballistic missiles and dozens of cruise missiles at the same time, the capacity to track and intercept targets should be pushed to its limit.
Caption: In the picture, the Israeli air defense system “Iron Dome” takes off to intercept missiles fired by Iran. Keystone/AP Photo/Tomer Neuberg (04/14/2024)
How expensive is the attack on Iran?
The Iranians once said that a missile that can reach Israel costs about $400,000. This is very cheap in international comparison. The drones are expected to cost around $50,000 to produce. Overall, it was a pretty expensive attack.
If this was a symbolic attack, what would the real attack look like?
The attack caused little damage. Tehran says it deliberately held back. Is that believable?
That’s not credible. If this was a symbolic attack, what would the real attack look like? Iran has a relatively large arsenal. The Americans estimate there are 3,000 ballistic missiles. But launching 100 of these at once is logistically and technically very complex and personnel-intensive.
Would there be other options? About the use of heavier weapons?
The Iranians have deployed their best missiles and drones. Better systems against Israel’s missile defense are largely still in development. Iran could escalate further through Hezbollah. Hezbollah has geographical advantages over Iran. Lebanon could use cheaper and more short-range missiles. But the Israelis have made statements that they may want to attack Hezbollah militarily after they are done with Gaza. That’s probably why the Iranian side is reluctant to use Hezbollah in this scenario.
Are nuclear weapons an option?
Iran continues to have its civilian nuclear program, in which ever higher levels of enrichment are being achieved. Western intelligence agencies say Iran has not yet made a decision to build the atomic bomb. The fact that Iran’s deterrence capability may have been weakened by the weekend attack could influence the calculation.
The interview was conducted by Christina Scheidegger.