FROM THE REPORT IN ASTANA. In the grip of a snowstorm that devours the huge skyscrapers, the great mosques, the streets and the few shadows that dare to defy the frost, the Baiterek stands out in the sky of Astana like an artificial sun. It can be seen from every corner of the city, and this is what the symbolic monument of post-Soviet Kazakhstan must do, to be seen by all. Up there, a hundred meters above the ground, in the golden sphere which is intended to represent the egg laid by the Samruk bird, the golden cast of the right hand of Nursultan Nazabayev, first president of the independent Republic of Kazakhstan, is enclosed like a relic as of 2019 also the only one, with an electoral approval that has never dared to fall below 95% of the votes. You take the elevator, you wait your turn to place your hand on his, you make a wish. It doesn’t matter if beyond the glass the panorama of Astana is swallowed by the storm, it is not for the view that Kazakhs make the uninterrupted pilgrimage. Up there is his imprint, down here on the ice roads, on the facades of the buildings that make up a landscape halfway between Soviet perspectives and Las Vegas, there are the traces of a country that has promised to change, just as it has changed the name of its capital, which from Nursultan has returned to being Astana.
Today Kazakhstan is called to early elections to decide whether to confirm the current president Kassim-Jomart Tokayev, the former heirloom of Nazarbayev who came to power in 2019 after the hasty resignation of the founder of the “independent republic”. He called the vote without fear of defeat, with polls giving him 78.8% and an almost transparent opposition, which “doesn’t want to go against anyone, but only wants the good for the country”. Opponent candidates do not specify what is good for the country, but it is not necessary.
Tokayev wanted these elections, to restart, he says, the “country from scratch”, driven by his ambitious plan of reforms and a political vision which, at least in words, wants to give back to the world a new Kazakhstan and, his officials repeat as if it were a mantra, «just, fair and peaceful». Pacific, especially. And it’s impossible not to think about what peace means for a country that shares a 6,846km border with Russia and is the only state to separate the Russian Federation from the rest of Central Asia by land. Just as it is not impossible not to notice Tokayev’s latest moves after the invasion of Ukraine, moves that the Kremlin didn’t like at all.
Tokayev wants to transform Kazakhstan into one of the 30 most developed countries in the world, with an immense territory, hydrocarbons in quantity (it is among the ten largest oil exporters in the world), an abundance of raw materials, uranium and coal and a political class which promises to bring it closer to Europe, already one of the major trading and investment partners.
Lightened by the weight of his predecessor, Tokayev now wants to follow up on his goal and give a “decisive turning point” to the country that Moscow continues to consider as its colony. A turning point that some in the Kremlin considered a gamble, or an affront to the “Mother”.
The eyes of the world were opened on the Central Asian giant last January, barely a month before the war in Ukraine, when the troops of Moscow (under the banner of the CSTO – the Collective Security Treaty Organization) had intervened to quell the protests anti-government and secure Tokayev’s power. Two hundred and thirty dead, but the president was safe, Putin had underlined his role in the region and, at the same time, strengthened his geopolitical interests in Central Asia. But on February 24th he shuffled the cards. While gratitude was expected in Moscow for the help received in January, Tokayev instead condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying he would do nothing to allow Moscow to circumvent international sanctions and refusing to recognize the self-proclaimed republics of Kherson, Lugansk and Donetsk. He declared the country neutral in March, then banned Russian war symbols and canceled the May 9 Victory Day parade. In September, it ensured that none of its citizens in Russian territory, or with dual citizenship, risked being recalled to the reservists following the mobilization launched by the Kremlin and, indeed, wanted to open the doors to fleeing Russians, welcoming around 100,000 : «We must take care of Russian citizens who want to leave the Federation and ensure their safety. It’s a political and humanitarian issue.” For some time, fears of a possible occupation of the territories in the north of the country, where most of the 3.5 million Russian-Kazakhs live (the total population does not reach 20 million), had begun chasing each other in the corridors of the buildings of Astana. In Moscow, Kazakhstan’s neutrality after the invasion of Ukraine was experienced as a betrayal, an affront to a key country in Russia’s economic and strategic projects and part, despite itself, of that Russkij Mir conceived by Putin, so much so that the former president Dmitrij Medvedev last summer recalled that Astana could be the next target once “the case with Kiev is closed”.
But the Kazakhs have kept going, demonstrating in practice that the perception of Russia as a guarantor of security is on the way out and that it is better to go elsewhere to do business. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko has repeatedly explained that «we are in favor of respect for the United Nations Charter and for the territorial integrity of States. This conflict has caused great pain in our society. It has left no one indifferent because we have good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. However, if ever there was a time to build stronger ties between Kazakhstan and Europe, to build bridges between us and to bring our two regions closer together, then this moment is now.”
For now, the European Union remains one of Astana’s main partners (trade increased by 43% to 25 billion euros this year), after Russia and China, but both sides remain dependent on Moscow as most of the goods must arrive in Europe via the Federation. Oil and gas exports account for more than 40% of Kazakhstan’s national revenue, and 80% of those exports pass through Russia through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in which Moscow is also the largest shareholder. And since the beginning of the war, the Kremlin has already blocked the pipeline five times.
For the moment it seems that the cards are still in the hands of Moscow, although Vassilenko said yesterday that his first hope is that “the world understands what we call Astana’s multi-vector foreign policy”. Only after today’s vote will we understand if these elections will truly be the “epochal turning point” for a Kazakhstan further away from Russian influence or if the former Soviet country will become the next battleground between Moscow and Beijing, when the “alliance” between the two Eurasian powers will definitely come to an end.