Author: Jiang Changyun (Deputy Director and Researcher of the Institute of Industrial Economics, China Academy of Macroeconomics)
In recent years, the changes of the century and the epidemic of the century have been intertwined, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain. At the same time, my country’s economic development is facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. Against this background, it is a big challenge to promote the steady improvement of the economy in quality and reasonable growth in quantity.
It should be noted that my country’s economy is resilient and the fundamentals of long-term improvement will not change. Under the severe internal and external environment, my country’s economic development and epidemic prevention and control have maintained a leading position in the world, and the economic operation has remained within a reasonable range. Facing the future, we must not only have the tenacity and determination to climb the slopes, but also enhance the ability and wisdom to turn crises into opportunities, and do our own things unswervingly. In particular, it is necessary to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, continue to do a good job of “six stability” and “six guarantees”, continue to improve people’s livelihood, and focus on stabilizing the macroeconomic market.
Put stable growth and employment in a more prominent position
my country’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. In 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.0% over the previous year. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the GDP in 2020 and 2021 will increase by an average of 5.1% in two years. my country has a large population, and there are large gaps in income, development level, development capability, and development opportunities between regions, between urban and rural areas, and between different groups. There are still some shortcomings in the development of various fields; in 2021, my country’s per capita gross national income (GNI) will be approximately $12,400, which is close to the threshold for high-income countries. In the face of more complex, severe and uncertain domestic and foreign situations in the future, it is crucial to maintain a certain economic growth rate. At present, more attention must be paid to stabilizing growth and keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range.
The main expected development goals set in this year’s “Government Work Report” are GDP growth of about 5.5%, resident income growth basically synchronized with economic growth, and imports and exports maintain stability and improve quality. To achieve these goals, we must first have a good grasp of the internal and external development environment and risks and challenges facing our country, and find countermeasures.
On the one hand, the uncertainty of the development environment at home and abroad has increased significantly, especially the development of the crisis in Ukraine and the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The Ukrainian crisis has caused international commodity prices to rise, which may bring about a chain reaction or have a negative impact on my country’s foreign trade. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control situation has been severe this year. Although the impact of the epidemic is staged, it has also increased the difficulty of stabilizing growth.
On the other hand, the cancellation of epidemic prevention and control restrictions in some countries may weaken my country’s advantage of taking the lead in restoring production capacity. In recent years, the contribution rate of my country’s net exports to economic growth has risen rapidly. In 2021, net exports of goods and services will drive GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points, making a significant contribution to GDP growth. An important reason is that the global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has led to intensified global market segmentation, disruption of industrial and supply chains, major impacts on supply and logistics, and sharp increases in costs. my country relies on its global leadership in economic development and epidemic prevention and control to expand exports. The advantages are prominent. At present, some countries have lifted the restrictions on epidemic prevention and control. Although in the long run, the harms outweigh the benefits, in the short term, it may promote the recovery of global production capacity, logistics, and supply chains, and weaken the effect of shortages in the international market of bulk commodities on pushing up prices. The support role of net exports on economic growth has weakened.
Economic work must take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability. The key is to put stable growth in a more prominent position. For a period of time, my country has introduced a series of policies and measures, and an important task at present is to promote the practical implementation of policies and achieve results as soon as possible.
At the same time, stable employment is also very important. Employment is the foundation of people’s livelihood and social stability, and the source of increasing income and consumption. Stable growth and stable employment can promote each other. Under the current complex situation, we must also put stable employment in a prominent position, strengthen the orientation of giving priority to employment, and work hard to improve the employment driving force of economic growth. In this regard, we should make good use of the important role of infrastructure construction in stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand, and pay more attention to infrastructure construction with strong employment driving force; pay more attention to the employment difficulties of zero-employment families and key groups, and take targeted assistance Measures related to job stabilization; etc.
Make good use of policies that are conducive to economic stability
To promote the steady improvement in quality and reasonable growth of the economy, it is necessary to stabilize the macroeconomic market and actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability. The Central Economic Work Conference has made important arrangements for macro policies, micro policies, structural policies, science and technology policies, reform and opening up policies, regional policies, and social policies.
First, promote the integration of macro and micro policies, and pay more attention to market players that are more affected by the epidemic and economic downturn. The negative impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the increasing downward pressure on the economy is asymmetric, and it is more likely to have a negative impact on low-income people, private enterprises, small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and other market entities, as well as contact-type service industries such as catering and tourism. In this regard, it is necessary to continue to do a good job of “six stability” and “six guarantees”, respond to the concerns of market players and consumers, implement proactive fiscal policies, and promote new financial resources to sink to the grassroots level, and provide more negatively affected groups and market players. Moderate incline. Strengthen financial support for micro-enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and regional large-scale destitute industries, help them reduce financing costs, improve financing convenience, guide them to increase income by stabilizing employment, and consolidate the foundation for promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand. Pay attention to reducing the cost and risk of employment and entrepreneurship by optimizing services that are convenient for the people and enterprises, and innovating simple and effective supervision methods. Improve the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies, increase the implementation of prudent monetary policies, and provide more support for independent innovation; encourage financial institutions to strengthen medium- and long-term financial support for market players to help them resolve financing difficulties and the risk of capital chain breakage caused by changes in the external environment; Promote the coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary policies, strengthen support for market players, further optimize services, and strengthen the construction of business environment.
Second, promote the coordinated development of science and technology policies and reform and opening-up policies, and enhance the ability to achieve high-level self-reliance and self-improvement. Innovation is the first driving force for development. It is necessary to give priority to supporting independent innovation, optimize the environment for innovation and entrepreneurship, encourage the overcoming of the “neck” problem of key core technologies from the perspective of mechanism and policy, and promote transformative technological innovation. It is necessary to deepen reform and opening up, stimulate the initiative of technological entrepreneurs and strategic scientists to lead independent innovation, and encourage industry leaders, supply chain core enterprises and innovative enterprises to enhance their innovation-driven capabilities, promote the transfer, transformation and industrialization of scientific and technological achievements. The backbone of the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain supply chain. Promote a better combination of effective markets and promising governments, stimulate market vitality and social creativity, accelerate the creation of a market-based, law-based, and international business environment, and expand space for high-quality development. It is necessary to expand high-level opening to the outside world, accelerate the construction of a new system of a higher-level open economy, enhance the ability to utilize two markets and two resources, drive in-depth reform and high-quality development, and improve the ability to respond to domestic and foreign risks and challenges in the course of open development.
Third, optimize cross-cycle and counter-cycle adjustments, and enhance the ability to build a new development pattern and promote high-quality development. my country attaches great importance to coping with risks and challenges through inter- and counter-cyclical adjustment, which has effectively promoted economic growth. At present, my country’s development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities, but the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the domestic and foreign environments have increased significantly, making it more difficult to identify and respond to opportunities and challenges. Some sudden and temporary factors exceed expectations, affect the selection of time and strength of cross-cycle and counter-cycle regulation, and easily lead to problems such as insufficient regulation effectiveness. Scientifically distinguishing normal factors, transformation factors and crisis factors affecting development, and effectively identifying long-term goals, short-term control goals and emergency management goals, is of great significance for better grasping and utilizing important strategic opportunities. It is necessary to combine the use of interval regulation, directional regulation, camera regulation, etc., to improve the ability of cross-cycle and counter-cycle regulation, and coordinate to support the smooth operation of the economy. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen forward-looking basic reserve research on macro-control policies.
Fourth, effectively promote the implementation of efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. At present, the global inflationary pressure is increasing. It is necessary to strengthen import and export control, effectively prevent and resolve imported inflation risks, and pay more attention to optimizing the business environment and consumption environment, and smoothing key logistics and transportation channels for people’s livelihood materials. We must not only do a good job of epidemic prevention and control, but also ensure economic stability and development security. However, it is also necessary to prevent the excessive increase in epidemic prevention and control in some areas, aggravate the obstruction of logistics, interrupt the supply chain, and hinder the national economic cycle. We must pay attention to improving the scientific accuracy of epidemic prevention and control, promote normalized epidemic prevention and control, and try our best to reduce the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development and basic people’s livelihood. Do a good job in stabilizing the production and supply of bulk commodities, strengthen the building of strategic reserves and domestic resource production guarantee capabilities, improve risk prevention and early warning mechanisms, and effectively enhance emergency response capabilities.
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责编：刘梦甜 ]