Professor Nagy, why did Kim Jong-un choose to go to Russia at this time and what does he aim to achieve from Vladimir Putin?
It is the first time he has been able to leave North Korea since the Covid-19 pandemic, and there is no one else ready to welcome him but Putin. Russia knows that North Korea has the kind of munitions it needs to prosecute the war in Ukraine. The fact that Moscow is turning to Pyongyang shows that up to now China has not supported it on the military front. The feeling is that Putin is desperate and is turning to the only one willing to give him the weapons he wants. North Korea will take advantage of this opportunity to obtain energy, food and some satellite technology. But if Russia carried out technology transfer in direct assistance to Kim Jong-un’s nuclear and missile program it would violate United Nations sanctions. I therefore believe that Moscow will be careful on this aspect and that possibly the technological support provided to Pyongyang can only be applied indirectly to the creation of lethal weapons.
What do you think is the Chinese perspective on the rapprochement between Kim and Putin?
I think the dynamic of the ménage à trois between Kim, Putin and Xi is very interesting. Putin’s rapprochement with Kim could make Xi nervous, because he is able to at least partially lose the influence that China has always had on North Korea and on the stability of the Korean peninsula. The alliance between Putin and Kim could bring even more American presence in South Korea, which China does not want. Kim is trying to take advantage of these dynamics to obtain some easing of sanctions on both the Russian and Chinese sides. So I would look at Xi’s signals on Pyongyang not from a bilateral but from a trilateral perspective.
In this sense, do you therefore believe that, by meeting Kim and raising tensions on the Korean peninsula, you are also aiming to obtain greater support from Xi?
Surely Russia would like more help on the war in Ukraine. But the question is how Beijing can do this while avoiding secondary sanctions that could further damage its economy. The question is: Can Putin create enough pressure on China? I do not think so. China is patient, its priority is to stabilize the economy and continue to have access to the West.
Will the meeting between Xi and Biden in San Francisco for the Apec summit in November take place?
I think the chances are still 50/50. The United States is trying to create favorable conditions for this to happen, but I think there is some resistance in Beijing. Mainly for two reasons: the negative economic situation and the lack of control over the way China is presented at these international summits.
Could Kim’s trip have an impact on the foreign policies of Japan and South Korea?
I expect an increase in trilateral cooperation between Tokyo, Seoul and Washington. As long as President Yoon Suk-yeol remains in power, alignment with the US will remain strong, then things could change.