“This means that there is a high probability that we will see hybrid warfare in 2024,” said Vorhofer. In his presentation, he listed a total of eight risks that are particularly relevant for Austria, including the disruption of supply chains due to conflicts, the effects of migration, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, the absence of which would be “extremely unusual” in the current super election year.
Time for EU elections is a nervous one
Finally, the expert also mentioned attempts by external actors to weaken European integration “through targeted attacks and coercion”. The aim is to prevent Europe from becoming a key player in security and foreign policy.
In this context, the ministry’s defense policy director, Arnold Kammel, pointed to the upcoming European elections and said the circumstances “should not be underestimated”. After all, the “European weakness in action” before the 2014 EU elections “invited” Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to take his first aggressive steps towards Ukraine. Accordingly, the aim must be to keep the transition phase surrounding the European elections “as short as possible”.
“Europe should have reacted by 2014 at the latest”
“2014 was the latest point in time when we in Europe should have reacted,” emphasized military strategist Günter Hofbauer with a view to Russia. “We should be stricter in our assessment,” he demanded. With regard to Russia, people “allowed themselves to be seduced into not recognizing any political intentions.” However, it has become clear that these intentions can “change at very short notice,” Hofbauer argued in favor of evaluating the individual actors according to their respective military and other potential.
“Gray area” between peace and war
Army experts agree that military conflicts are likely to increase “because war is back as a dimension of politics,” as Vorhofer said. “One thing is clear: It’s getting faster and there’s more,” said Hofbauer, who spoke of a “grey area” in this regard. “We are in a phase where it is not yet war, but it is no longer peace either.”
“Make the Federal Army fit for war again”
This circumstance makes it necessary to “make the armed forces fit for war again”. After all, it takes a decade to build air defense, and in ten to 15 years, Russia’s war against Ukraine “will be just one of the conflicts.”
Tanner: “World out of joint”
In her statement, Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner (ÖVP) advocated remaining “focused”. “If the world is out of control, then we shouldn’t do it ourselves,” she said, advocating, among other things, Austria’s participation in joint European defense projects. “I am convinced that these risks can only be addressed through collaboration,” she said.
She specifically mentioned the “Sky Shield” air defense project, which the FPÖ vigorously opposed as a breach of neutrality. In view of the images from Ukraine, where war is being waged with ballistic missiles and drones, there should be “no gap” here over Austria. “I am very grateful to Germany for this initiative, in which so many European countries are involved.”
The Defense Minister praised the billion-dollar armament package for the Federal Army. This is also secured by a corresponding law and will therefore have an impact beyond legislative periods, she said in her speech to the defense spokespersons of the parliamentary parties.
Tanner was also happy that Austria had not introduced a professional army. “A very correct and far-reaching decision was made” in the 2013 referendum. You can see this now “when other states are thinking about emphasizing compulsory military service again.”
The report should go to schools and universities
Given the diverse security challenges, Tanner also highlighted the need to focus more on “intellectual national defense.” She expressed concern “how little the future generation particularly appreciates the fact that we live in a democracy.” In this regard, she referred to the anchoring of the concept of comprehensive national defense in the curricula. The publication “Risk Image 2024”, on which dozens of experts from various disciplines have worked, will also be made available to schools and universities.
Focus on multiple regions
Hofbauer and four other experts gave brief regional security overviews at the presentation, which were not very edifying given the general picture. Russia expert Gerhard Mangott, for example, is already looking ahead to 2025 and a possible new Ukrainian offensive to drive out the aggressor.
The former BZÖ politician and current top official in the Ministry of Defense, Günther Barnet, described the crucial question in the Middle East as whether there would be a conflagration, with the situation in Jordan in particular having to be taken into account. If the country were destabilized, Iran could use a land connection to smuggle weapons into the West Bank, where Palestinians and Israelis lived “next door.”
The two experts Antonia Witt and Marie-Janine Calic did not see a positive future for the respective conflict regions of Africa and the Western Balkans. However, the latter said that she considered the risk of war in the Serbia-Bosnia-Kosovo triangle to be low because the prospect of EU accession would have a stabilizing effect in this regard. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will choose the EU perspective “when push comes to shove,” said Calic.