For the screenings of the Catholic University for Rpt the winner of the Portuguese legislative elections is the centre-right of Luis Montenegro, between 29 and 33%, who presented themselves in the Democratic Alliance coalition. But the difference with the socialist party of Pedro Nuno Santos, which for the exit polls is between 25 and 29%, is minimal and the final results are now awaited. André Ventura’s far-right Chega party confirms itself as the third force between 14 and 17%, doubling the votes in 2022 which gave it 7%.
Portugal, polls open. The shadow of the far right on the vote 50 years after the Carnation Revolution by Benedetta Perilli 10 March 2024
At the moment the real victory seems to be that of participation. On a day that saw one of the highest percentages of turnout at the polls of the last five legislative elections, Portugal voted for the renewal of the 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic a few weeks before April 25 when the country will celebrate 50 years since Carnation Revolution which in 1974 put an end to the dictatorship – the Estado novo founded in 1933 – of Antonio de Oliveira Salazar.
The resignation of Prime Minister Costa
An early consultation called after the Portuguese Prime Minister, Antonio Costawho won his third consecutive mandate in January 2022 and is considered a point of reference for European socialists thanks to the economic recipes that have put the country back on track, resigned last November due to an investigation into alleged illegalities in his government’s management of large environmental investment projects.
The polls
Almost all the most recent polls predicted a narrow victory for the centre-right Democratic Alliance over the Socialist Party (after the historic 41.37% in 2022), followed by the far-right Chega movement (which could approach 20% of the preferences) and by smaller parties, right and left, to which percentages of between 1 and 6% were assigned.
Chega’s far right
Even after the vote, there are still many questions about the possibility of the centre-right coalition, in opposition, taking the place of the socialists, now led by Pedro Nuno Santos, and the place that the far-right Chega party will occupy within the political landscape.
The leader of the PSD, the social democratic party (co-founder of the Democratic Alliance) Luís Montenegro, has ruled out an alliance with Chega, whose leader, André Ventura, has instead shown himself certain of the fact that – “if there is a parliamentary majority of right, I have a total guarantee – I cannot reveal from whom – that there will be a right-wing government. With or without Montenegro”.