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According to overseas reports, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 30th local time that all Russian energy and commodity exports may be denominated in rubles. Previously, Russia had already demanded that natural gas exports to “unfriendly countries” should be paid in Russian currency.
On the 30th, German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economics and Climate Protection Habeck announced the activation of the first level of the natural gas emergency supply plan, the early warning stage, to prepare for Russia to stop delivering natural gas.
In addition, according to CCTV news reports, on the 30th local time, Putin had a phone call with German Chancellor Scholz.
According to information released by Germany,Putin said European contractors could continue to pay in euros and transfer the funds as usual to Gazprom, which would then convert the funds into rubles.The German government statement also said that Scholz did not agree to the gas payment procedure proposed by the Russian side during the call, but asked for written materials to accurately understand the payment process.
It is worth noting that, judging from the trend of the ruble exchange rate, Russia’s “financial counterattack” has achieved initial results. In the past week, the exchange rate of the ruble against the U.S. dollar has continued to rise, currently at 84.55 rubles per dollar, while the ruble exchange rate was as low as 150 rubles per dollar in early March.
The trend of the Russian ruble in the past week
List of exports denominated in rubles may expand
Overseas.com quoted the Russia Today website as saying that Russian Parliament Speaker Vorokin earlier on the 30th called for the use of national currency to denominate all of Russia’s exports. Asked to comment on this, Peskov said “the idea should definitely be put into practice.” He said it was in the interests of Russia and its partners to price Russian exports in rubles.Peskov also said that the new plan to pay for natural gas in rubles will be implemented on time, and details of the payment mechanism will be announced on March 31.
According to CCTV news, on the 30th local time, Vorokin said that he proposed to expand the list of Russian export goods that need to be settled in rubles, including grains, fertilizers, oil, metals and timber.
In addition, according to CCTV News Comprehensive RIA Novosti and Russian Satellite News Agency reported on the 30th, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the same day that the prestige of the US dollar has seriously declined, and the only alternative is to expand the use of the national currency. The mechanism for paying for gas in rubles will not start from March 31 and will take some time to take effect.
According to relevant reports, about 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports from Russia, mainly paid in euros. The European side said that Russia’s state-owned gas giant, Gazprom, has no right to re-sign the contract. Russia exports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of natural gas to Europe every year. According to Gazprom’s financial data, the euro accounts for 58% of the value of the company’s exports, the dollar accounts for 39%, and the pound accounts for about 3%.
Russian officials have repeatedly said the West’s attempt to isolate Russia, one of the world’s largest producers of natural resources, is a self-inflicted irrational act that will send inflation soaring and drag Europe and the United States into recession.
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Germany launches first-level emergency plan for natural gas
In 2020, nearly 59% of Germany’s natural gas imports came from Russia, according to Eurostat. Other European countries are even more reliant on Russian gas – the Czech Republic imports up to 86% of its gas from Russia, and Latvia and Hungary import more than 100% of its gas from Russia (i.e. gas imports from Russia already exceed the country’s domestic demand). ).
After Russia announced the settlement of natural gas in rubles, Germany, which is extremely dependent on Russian natural gas, took the lead in launching the first-level emergency plan.
According to the Wall Street Journal, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Wednesday that the German government has activated the first level of its natural gas emergency plan, fearing that Russia will cut off gas supplies if it is not paid in rubles. Harbeck said,The early warning level of the contingency plan is activated for preventive purposes. At present, the security of supply is still guaranteed, and there is no bottleneck.
Germany’s natural gas emergency plan has three ascending levels, namely warning level, alert level and emergency level. Harbeck added that the crisis team is analysing and assessing the gas supply situation so that further measures can be taken if necessary to improve gas supply security.
According to CNBC, the German Council of Economic Experts said in a report on Wednesday that “the high reliance on Russian energy supplies (for Germany) poses a considerable risk of a decline in economic output and even economic Risk of recession and a sharp rise in inflation.” The committee advises the German government in Berlin. The committee also said that “Germany should immediately take all possible measures to prevent Russia from suspending its energy supply and to end its dependence on Russian energy quickly.”
In addition, German Chancellor Scholz expressed similar concerns in a speech to the country’s parliament last week, saying that an immediate ban on Russian energy imports “would mean a recession for our country and Europe as a whole.”
It wasn’t just the German Council of Economic Experts who warned about economic growth. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said Wednesday in Frankfurt time that Europe is facing slower growth and higher energy prices as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eroded confidence and pushed up energy prices. A situation of rising inflation. She pointed out that the current inflation outlook (in the euro zone) is “volatile” and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is forcing economists to constantly revise their economic forecasts.
“In the short term, we will face higher inflation and slower economic growth,” Lagarde said. “The longer the conflict lasts, the more expensive it will be for the economy[to recover]and the possibility that we end up in a bad situation. The bigger it is.” She also added that households in the euro zone had become pessimistic.
Russia to sell oil to India at deep discount
$35 off per barrel
It is worth noting that while European countries and Russia are tugging on energy issues, India, as far away as Asia, appears to be the winner.
According to Kankan news reports, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India is aggressively buying cheap Russian crude oil. Industry data show that since the beginning of this month, about 6 million barrels of Russian crude oil have been shipped to India and are expected to arrive at the port in early April, which is equivalent to half of the total crude oil shipped from Russia to India last year.
The International Energy Agency disclosed in the middle of this month that Russia’s Urals crude oil discount reached a record level. Industry analysts believe that India will continue to purchase low-priced Russian crude oil in the future.
According to a foreign media report quoted by Jiemian News on March 31, according to people familiar with the matter, Russia has offered to sell oil directly to India at a steep discount. People familiar with the matter said,Russia has offered to supply its flagship Urals-grade crude at a discount of as much as $35 a barrel to prices before Ukraine launched the “special military operation” to entice India to boost purchases.Russia wants India to start buying 15 million barrels under this year’s contract, the people said, adding that talks are taking place at the government level.
According to reports, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit India from March 31 to April 1. Lavrov is eager to persuade India to increase its purchases of discounted Russian oil, the report said. In addition, Lavrov may also discuss with India to develop a rupee-to-ruble payment mechanism for bilateral trade between the two countries, thereby bypassing the use of US dollars for settlement in transactions.
In addition, according to the Financial Associated Press, with regard to energy cooperation between India and Russia, U.S. officials said that the U.S. supports India’s purchase of Russian oil at a discount and does not oppose the settlement of trade between India and Russia in rupees.But it warned that India would face “enormous risks” if it substantially increased Russian oil imports; it should not increase Russian oil imports “substantially” compared to previous years.The U.S. State Department said the U.S. has engaged with India and other countries on collective action, including tough sanctions on Russia; the U.S. is working with allies to reduce its reliance on Russia for energy supplies.
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