MOSCA – Tatjana Stanovaja calls for caution. “It is too early to talk about the rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine”, says the director of the “R. Politik” center for political studies. And if it is true that there is a lot of dissent around the military operation, “the elite – she says – are afraid and shut up”.
So Stanovaja doesn’t believe in a positive turnaround in this new round of negotiations? Or in the apparent withdrawal of the Russian armed forces?
“I see no plausible reason for Moscow to reconsider its initial demands. I would be wary of hoping for a possible peace. The fact is that Moscow did not expect this resistance from Ukrainian society, the army and the elite and now it finds itself. his troops scattered throughout the Ukrainian territory. He has to adapt to the situation. With the idea of occupying all of Ukraine in a short time shelved, he has decided to concentrate on one target at a time. And now the priority is the Donbass. Moscow is alone gaining time to regroup the army and focus on Eastern Ukraine. And he justifies these troop movements under the pretext of negotiations. “
Precisely because the “military operation” is not going according to plan, could not Moscow see an exit strategy in an agreement?
“Moscow will not sign any peace until Ukraine agrees to all the requests. And the proposed Kiev draft accepts only about half of them. It cannot be the basis for a compromise. What is certain is that Russia can no longer succeed. to advance militarily. So he needs time to regroup and focus on the Donbass. But I doubt he will limit himself to Eastern Ukraine. “
But isn’t Vladimir Putin in danger of losing support as the fighting continues?
“Putin will lose social support if he loses the war, not if he continues to fight. Today, after the first rumors about the negotiations, the social networks were flooded with posts comparing the possible signing of the Ukrainian proposal to the Khasavjurt Agreements signed after the First Chechen war. It was a failure, a shame, one of the greatest humiliations of the Yeltsin era. Putin created expectations by describing the operation as a ‘fight against Nazism’. He cannot afford a ‘Khasavjurt 2‘. For the most radical and patriotic part of society, the activists in favor of the so-called ‘Novorossija’, it would be a betrayal “.
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How is the progress of the operation affecting the balance within the circle of the “siloviki” of the security forces?
“Within the elites and the leadership there is resentment towards the General Staff: the operation was not as fast as expected and is causing huge losses. We can imagine that there will be infighting between the siloviki: the FSB against Defense, Defense against the FSB. But I do not think Putin is psychologically and politically ready to admit that his initial strategy and objectives were wrong. He is not yet ready to punish the real managers of the operations because, in his eyes, it would undermine the pillars of his own regime. Nor can he make enemies in the army or the services, he has to deal with them because he needs them. At least for now. “
And is there any resentment towards Putin?
“A significant section of the elite, mostly the bureaucracy and the business world, were shocked by the offensive. They had not been informed and were not prepared. But dissent did not turn into action. Resistance and irritation remain. Even if many disagree with Putin and consider this operation a mistake, they tend to justify it and rather accuse the West of having closed the door to dialogue and of not having understood Russian concerns. At the moment I do not see an anti-Putin movement in the elite. Discontent? Yes. Fear? A lot. Disagreement? Yes. But no one is ready to act. And therefore everyone remains silent “.
In which circle could dissent turn into action?
“Putin’s loyalists will not rebel against him. But on the periphery of the political and economic elite, people like Oleg Deripaska, Mikhail Fridman and Arkadij Dvorkovich they have already spoken out against the offensive. The problem is that they have no direct access to Putin and in no way can influence his decisions. And having expressed their dissent, they took a great risk and will be marginalized even more by the decision-making process. I doubt that a movement against the operation in Ukraine will form anytime soon. For it to appear, the regime must appear vulnerable, indecisive, weak. And we haven’t gotten to this point yet. Maybe in a few months things will change, but for the moment they are all afraid and do not dare to make their voices heard “.