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In recent months, Russian intelligence has successfully implemented numerous operations on European territory. These days we are talking about the scandal of the military conversation intercepted by Russia in Germany, which has greatly embarrassed the German government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. A few weeks ago Russian defector Maxim Kuzminov was found dead in Spain, in what was considered a Russian intelligence operation. Also in recent weeks there had been other important cases: at the end of February she had been arrested in the United Kingdom an alleged Russian spy had been discovered and in France a vast campaign of online disinformation.
These intelligence campaigns show how, after a period of difficulty following the invasion of Ukraine, Russian intelligence has found new methods to operate in Europe: its activities «are at the level of what happened during the Cold War, or even more”, he said al Financial Times a European intelligence official who wished to remain anonymous.
After the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian spy activities were weakened by European governments, which expelled more than 600 diplomats from Russian embassies in their territories, 400 of whom were believed to be spies working under diplomatic cover. This is a usual thing, not only for Russia: very often in embassies there are people, some official and some not, who are part of the secret services, and very often embassies are the place where intelligence operations are organized in various countries, which normally tolerate the presence of these activities.
The expulsion of hundreds of spies in 2022, at least initially, had put Russian intelligence agencies in difficulty, which had lost their main instrument of activity and information collection in Europe.
These agencies are mainly three: the FSB, which is the heir of the Soviet KGB and deals with internal security (therefore it acts mainly inside Russia); the SVR, which is the external intelligence that collects information abroad; and above all the GRU, which is military intelligence and deals with both collecting information abroad and carrying out the most complicated and risky operations.
After difficulties, Russian intelligence agencies have reorganized themselves and found new ways to operate over the past two years. The agents moved either to European countries that maintained a neutral position (such as Switzerland and Austria) or to countries that border the European Union, such as Serbia and Turkey, and from there continued to manage the operations.
Above all they have changed the way they work. If previously Russian agents carried out their operations themselves (as happened for example in 2018 in the United Kingdom, when GRU agents attempted to poison the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter), they now rely on third-party groups , who can work in Europe without impediments, such as criminal groups.
It happened, for example, when a Serbian criminal group collaborated with Russian intelligence to make Artem Uss, a Russian entrepreneur who was under house arrest in Italy and who managed to escape undisturbed, escape in a rather daring operation. The escape of Artem Uss, who was accused of serious crimes such as bank fraud, money laundering and smuggling of military technologies, greatly embarrassed Giorgia Meloni’s government. The Russian secret services may have also exploited the support of local criminal groups in organizing the murder of defector Maxim Kuzminov in Spain, at least according to initial investigations.
Russian intelligence has not only relied on criminal groups, but also on Russian citizens or other nationalities located in Europe who can provide or seek information on behalf of the agents. This is what happened for example in Norway with José Assis Giammaria, an alleged Brazilian researcher who had started working for a Norwegian university, before it was discovered that he was not Brazilian and that he worked for Russia. Just in the past few days Politico published an article according to which a Serbian man working for the Russian FSB met with some MEPs.
The use of third-party groups, which are not formally part of the intelligence community, makes counter-espionage activity more difficult, because it is more complicated for European countries to understand who is a spy and who is not.
At the same time, despite the sharp increase in successful operations carried out by Russia and made public in Europe, this situation is not necessarily entirely favorable to Russia.
As explained for example by Financial Timesthe large quantity of Russians who fled to Europe and the large quantity of Russians remaining in the country but dissatisfied with Vladimir Putin’s regime could be an opportunity for Western secret services: William Burns, the head of the CIA, wrote that the «growing dissatisfaction” with the regime could create a great “recruitment opportunity” of Russian people who could provide information to Europe.