LONDRA – The Russian offensive in the Donbass proceeds slowly. On the other hand, the Russian bombing of the whole of Ukraine is growing dramatically. What is going on? Indiscretions from the secret services and military experts say that, after the failed first phase of the invasion, Moscow has changed tactics in the war. Here are some questions and answers to understand what the goals of Putin’s campaign and his generals are.
How is the offensive in the Donbass going?
Russian forces have made “minimal progress,” says a Western source. Another even defines them as “anemic”. The advance promised by the Kremlin three weeks ago, when a “new phase of the military operation” was announced, essentially does not go far. Russia is hammering the Ukrainian positions with an increasingly intense bombardment, but after the artillery shots it does not set the tanks and infantry in motion as its doctrine would foresee.
Because?
It is not clear whether because it cannot, in fear of a Ukrainian resistance that is still too strong, or because it does not want to advance: the slowness of the advance, in this second hypothesis, would be deliberate. General Aleksandr Dvornikov, the new commander-in-chief of the Russian invasion forces, may have decided that he should wait, take time, for two reasons: the more the weather conditions improve, the more the terrain lends itself to the advance of the tanks; and the second reason is that the more Ukrainian supplies deteriorate, the less tenacious the resistance will be.
And are the supplies actually deteriorating?
We still do not know, but this is the apparent goal of the Russian rockets which hit at least 60 targets throughout Ukraine yesterday alone, not only in the Donbass area, but throughout the country, up to Lviv. The sights are railways, fuel depots and military factories. If the Ukrainian army runs out of ammunition and petrol, it will not be able to hold out for long when General Dvornikov orders his armored troops to make a mass attack along the front line across the Donbass.
Attack on the bridge that supplies the Donbass
Aren’t Russian rockets also hitting Western military aid?
So far there are no reports of Western weapons convoys hit by Russian bombing on the railway network or on the roads of Ukraine. Western sources deny it happened. Again, you can’t be sure how things stand. The Russians may not have tried, so as not to risk killing Western soldiers and provoking a reaction from NATO. They may have tried and failed. It may be that they have tried, they have succeeded and no one has wanted to make it known so far. It certainly is a possibility.
What else is Russia doing?
It took over Ukrainian internet infrastructures, not only in the Donbass but also in other regions, redirected them to operators controlled by Moscow, thus making Ukraine’s big data vulnerable to wiretapping and censorship by the Kremlin. Cyberwarfare is one of the fields in which this conflict is fought, an increasingly important field, on both sides: Ukrainian attacks against fuel depots inside Russia could also be the result of cyber operations, with or without the use of drones.
How does Kiev react to the bombing of railways and supplies?
The government of President Zelensky knows that Russia has changed tactics and is trying to run for cover. Some military factories are said to have been moved to secret locations. Hiding fuel deposits is obviously more difficult. In any case, Ukraine can count on the help of American intelligence, not only to locate and kill the Russian generals engaged on the battlefield, as revealed by the New York Times, but also to prevent the Russian attempt to cut supplies. to his army. Of course, Moscow also has spy satellites. This war is like a game of chess, in which each side can see in advance or at least in real time the opponent’s moves.
That being the case, what can be expected?
A long war of attrition. Putin will not be able to sing victory in the military parade on May 9 for the anniversary of the end of the Second World War, as he seems to have intended to do. It remains to be seen whether that day he will announce that his “military operation” has become a war, against Ukraine and against NATO, announcing the general mobilization: his spokesmen deny that this is the president’s intention, but the war has demonstrated, if doubts still existed, that the sincerity of Russian statements cannot be trusted. The impression is that the conflict could go on for the whole summer, also because, as already noted, it is the best season to fight: when the cold, rain and snow return it will become more difficult to carry on the terrestrial invasion. The hope is that, in the face of Western signs of steadfastness in support of Ukraine, at some point Putin will stop, decide he has achieved enough and accept a ceasefire and a real negotiation. The intensity with which he resumed attacking the Mariupol steel plant, after having ordered his Defense Minister live on TV not to attack it (just to stay on the subject of the sincerity of Moscow’s claims), could suggest that the Russian leader wants to announce on 9 May that he had vanquished the Azov Brigade, which he indicated as the main evidence of an alleged “nazification” of Ukraine, seizing at least one of its objectives. But whether he would eventually stop there or not, only he knows.