Security Chapter of the “World Shock Wave” of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
——The confrontation between NATO and Russia is intensifying, and dividing security is by no means the right way
As the largest military conflict in Europe since the 21st century, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused the global and regional security situation to show a downward spiral. On the one hand, NATO led by the United States continues to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine, and at the same time accelerates the pace of military expansion, which strongly stimulates Russia’s security nerves; on the other hand, in response to NATO military pressure, Russia is considering taking countermeasures and readjusting its military power. deploy. Rising tensions on the European continent have led Russia to warn that the risk of a nuclear war should not be underestimated.
The Ukrainian crisis has developed to this stage because of its adherence to the Cold War mentality, obsession with zero-sum games, and fascination with camp confrontation, the US-led NATO attempts to pursue its own absolute security at the expense of the security of other countries. Facts have proved that mankind is an indivisible security community. Only by adhering to the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, firmly upholding the international system with the United Nations at its core, and firmly upholding the basic norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter , in order to build a balanced, effective and sustainable global and regional security architecture.
NATO accelerates military expansion
Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO led by the United States has taken a series of actions to intensify pressure on Russia, which has made the global and regional security situation highly tense.
First, provide large-scale military assistance to Ukraine. Since February 24, the United States has pledged to provide Ukraine with about $3.7 billion in security assistance, and the U.S. government is asking Congress to approve an additional $33 billion in aid to Ukraine, of which $20.4 billion will be used to provide military and security assistance to Ukraine , and support for the United States to work with NATO allies and partners to strengthen European security. US Secretary of Defense Austin also established an international contact group on Ukraine’s defense issues with the participation of more than 40 countries, which will regularly discuss and coordinate the issue of military aid to Ukraine.
Second, strengthen the deployment of military power in the east wing. According to a report released by the British Institute for International Strategic Studies before the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO has more than 10,000 troops stationed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Poland and the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on its eastern flank. In late March after the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO’s military deployment in the above-mentioned eight countries has increased to about 25,000. In addition, starting from May 1, 18,000 soldiers from more than 20 countries are participating in NATO’s “European Defender 2022” and “Rapid Response 2022” exercises in Poland and other countries on the NATO east flank.
Once again, the multi-national defense spending has soared. German Chancellor Scholz announced a substantial increase in defense spending at the end of February, including the approval of a special fund of 100 billion euros, and increasing the proportion of German defense spending to GDP in the future to more than 2%. Poland plans to increase military spending to 3% of GDP by 2023, and increase its total military strength from the current 120,000 to 250,000. Denmark and Sweden also announced plans to increase military spending to 2 percent of GDP.
Finally, speed up the pace of expansion. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg has said several times recently that if Finland and Sweden apply to join NATO, NATO will welcome and ensure that they are quickly admitted. The US “Washington Post” website published an article saying that Finland and Sweden are expected to apply to join NATO before the NATO Madrid summit in June, which will be a major shift affecting the security balance in Europe and will greatly enhance NATO’s military presence around Russia.
Russia is bound to fight back
The US-led NATO continues to expand eastward in disregard of Russia’s security concerns, which is the root cause of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And NATO used the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as an excuse to further increase its pressure on Russia despite repeated public warnings from the Russian side. This will inevitably trigger Russian countermeasures, intensify the confrontation between the two sides, and make the global and regional security situation continue to deteriorate. .
On the one hand, NATO has made every effort to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine, and the scale of assistance has continued to increase. The weapons delivered have also been upgraded from the original individual air defense missiles and anti-tank missiles to heavy equipment such as tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles. The possibility of misfire and even direct confrontation is increasing. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pointed out that “NATO has essentially entered a war against Russia through proxies and is arming proxies” with the aim of using Ukraine to “deplete the Russian army and Russian military-industrial strength.”
If the confrontation between NATO and Russia further intensifies, the prospects will be unpredictable. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said in an interview with German media in early April that Poland was open to deploying US nuclear weapons on its territory. “If the United States asks to store its own nuclear weapons in Poland, we are open to that,” he said. “This would significantly strengthen the ‘deterrence’ against Moscow.” Lavrov has previously said that the idea of nuclear war exists only among Western politicians But he recently warned that Russia has done a lot to adhere to the principle of preventing nuclear war at all costs, but the risk of nuclear war is “serious and real” and should not be underestimated.
On the other hand, if NATO expands further north, this will mean that northern Europe will become a new front for NATO’s confrontation with Russia. Sweden and Finland have long been neutral, and if they join NATO, it will further exacerbate Russia’s insecurity.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said recently that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russia will be forced to upgrade the Northern Fleet and equip it with more advanced weapon systems. The German foreign policy website analyzed that Moscow will inevitably take countermeasures, which may include the deployment of nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave between NATO member Poland and Lithuania, to deter the entire Baltic Sea, including Sweden and Finland. area.
Security without leaving room for others is never the right way
The US-led NATO continues to fuel the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which not only puts Ukraine and the entire Europe at risk, but also jeopardizes global security and stability. An article published on the Tokyo Diplomatic Scholars website pointed out that most developing countries have obvious differences with Western countries such as the United States on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, showing their “vigilance of intensifying geopolitical confrontation.”
Guo Yanjun, director of the Institute of Asian Studies at the China Foreign Affairs University, said that on security issues, some countries represented by the United States are caught in the quagmire of Cold War mentality and zero-sum games, and are keen to engage in unilateral sanctions and close exclusive “small circles”. The vast majority of countries represented by China oppose bloc politics and camp confrontation, advocate true multilateralism, and insist on resolving conflicts and differences through dialogue and consultation. “Who is on the right side of history and on the side of international fairness and justice, the answer is self-evident.”
China’s recent global security initiative has aroused strong resonance and active support from the international community. China’s initiative emphasizes that mankind is an indivisible security community, and clarifies the core concepts, fundamental principles, important principles, long-term goals and feasible ideas for maintaining and realizing global security. This initiative is not only to solve the real problems of human security, but also to seek a long-term way of world peace.
Bambang Suryono, chairman of Indonesia’s Asian Innovation Research Center, said that, unlike some Western countries’ unilateral pursuit of their own security, China’s global security initiative pursues common security, a security concept that emphasizes peace and cooperation. It is conducive to the establishment of an international order featuring mutual respect, equality and mutual trust, and is of great significance to the realization of lasting peace and long-term development of mankind.
Shakir Lamai, CEO of Pakistan’s Asian Ecological Civilization Research and Development Institute, said that the global security governance system needs to be reformed, which requires abandoning the Cold War mentality and unilateralism and focusing on cooperative development. We will make continuous efforts to develop and build a community with a shared future for mankind.
(Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 11, reporter Zhang Yuan, participating reporters: Geng Pengyu, Sun Hao, Han Bing, Qiao Jihong, Liu Yang)
“Guangming Daily” (May 12, 2022 12th edition)
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责编：李方舟 ]