[Epoch Times, January 12, 2022](Epoch Times reporter Xu Jian comprehensive report) US scientific research institutions said that although the infection detection of the CCP virus (Wuhan virus, new coronavirus, COVID-19) variant Omicron (Omicron) The rate has dropped sharply, with daily global cases reaching 5 million this month, and two-thirds of the world‘s population will be infected by March.
According to the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the Center for Health Research at the University of Washington School of Medicine, by March 2022, nearly 60% of the global population is expected to be infected with the Omicron variant. Since most Omicron cases are asymptomatic, The actual number of daily infections in January will reach 5 million.
According to the IHME report, Omicron has a slightly larger infection hospitalization rate than previously estimated, while the global death toll has also increased slightly due to the increase in infections.
IHME director Christopher JL Murray said in the latest assessment: “Because Omicron is widely spread in the community, many people with other medical conditions, such as heart disease hospitalizations, may test positive for the virus.”
Based on an analysis of data from the UK, US and South Africa, the IHME revised its estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic cases – from 90% to a range of 80-90%. But compared to the Delta virus, Omicron caused a 90 percent drop in the death rate from infection.
“We expect infection testing rates to drop significantly. In many countries, however, the number of cases will be record numbers,” the agency said.
The report expects the number of infections in the United States to exceed 1 million per day, while India, despite its low testing numbers, will reach 500,000 cases per day at its peak in January.
Health care workers are hit hardest by Omicron’s high contagiousness, and Murray believes that “many governments will need to consider stopping testing of asymptomatic individuals and letting those who are symptomatic and test positive when it’s appropriate to return to work place.”
On Tuesday, the World Health Organization, based on IHME forecasts, believed that within the next two months, more than half of the European population could be infected with the Omicron variant, but it cannot yet be regarded as an endemic flu-like disease.
Hans Kluge, director of the WHO’s regional office for Europe, said that 50 of the 53 countries in Europe and Central Asia have detected cases of infection in Omicron.
Currently available data show that Omicron has a greater effect on the upper respiratory tract than on the lungs, so the disease is less severe than the previous variant. But WHO believes that this should not be taken lightly.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#
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