BEIJING – Thirty-four planes and nine military ships around Taiwan. Chinese incursions on the Strait continue, never abandoned after the visit of the speaker of the US House last August Nancy Pelosi in Taipei. In response, Taiwan scrambled fighter jets this morning, alerted its navy and activated missile systems. Twenty of the Chinese planes, according to the Ministry of Defense in Taipei, would have crossed the median line, an unofficial buffer zone (but widely respected until last summer) between the People’s Republic and the democratic island. Taiwan’s armed forces have “monitored the situation to respond to these activities,” the island’s ministry said in a statement.
What annoyed Beijing was most likely the phone call on Monday evening between the new president of the Czech Republic, Peter Pauland the leader of the island Tsai Ing-wen. China protested, interpreting the phone call as support for the island’s sovereignty, a “wrong signal to the independence forces”. Monday’s phone call was a diplomatic breakthrough for the Chinese-claimed island, which has no formal relations with Prague. “Pavel ignored China’s repeated attempts to dissuade him and our repeated complaints,” a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry said yesterday. Mao Ning. “He continued to step on China’s red line, seriously interfering in China’s internal affairs and hurting the Chinese people’s feelings.”
Beijing is also in turmoil due to the visit that should take place in the spring of the new speaker of the US House, Kevin McCarthy. The Chinese Foreign Ministry itself has urged the Speaker of the US House not to visit Taiwan, raising the specter of a repeat of last year’s military maneuvers, when Nancy Pelosi went to the island. Several analysts argue that there may be a less violent response than last August, given that McCarthy is a Republican and therefore should not be seen as an emissary of the White House. In any case, Beijing will feel “compelled” to respond in some way.
Although US-China relations have improved since Joe Biden had his first face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping in November, Beijing has repeatedly indicated that there is no room for compromise on Taiwan’s sovereignty.
The memo leaked last weekend also stirred the waters in the Strait Air Force General Mike Minihan: “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi has secured his third term and set his war council for October 2022.” The memo was not intended for the public, but was leaked on Twitter over the weekend and it’s probably not indicative of an official Pentagon timeline, given differing timeline statements from other top officials.But it’s a sign that many US militaries believe a conflict with China is increasingly inevitable.