Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 30 (International Observation) The global economy is “different from hot and cold” and China’s economic vitality is bright
Xinhua News Agency reporter
The first quarter economic data of the world‘s major economies have recently been released one after another. The growth of developed economies is sluggish. The performance of China’s economic data exceeding expectations has strongly boosted the confidence of the international market.
The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting a few days ago, emphasizing the need to comprehensively deepen reforms and expand high-level opening up to the outside world to continue to escort the high-quality development of China’s economy. Overseas people believe that while the world economic recovery is still facing many uncertainties, the Chinese economy has injected vitality into global growth, and China’s new development pattern continues to provide new opportunities for the world.
Less than expected: Weak growth in advanced economies
With “declining momentum” and “on the verge of stagnation”, many experts and scholars can’t hide their worries in the face of the economic “report cards” of major developed economies such as the United States and Europe in the first quarter.
The latest data show that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter, significantly lower than the 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and also lower than the 2% market expectation. Analysts believe that consumer spending, which supports U.S. economic growth, has shown signs of fading momentum. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes and continued turmoil in the banking industry may further drag down economic growth, or cause the U.S. economy to fall into recession later this year.
Lydia Bussour, a senior economist at Ernst & Young-Britain, believes that there is a certain lag in official data, which exaggerates the strength of US consumer spending and the overall economy. The U.S. economic momentum is actually fading and a recession is at risk soon.
On the east coast of the Atlantic, economic data from the euro zone and the European Union were also not optimistic. The data showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the euro zone in the first quarter grew by 0.1% from the previous quarter, which was lower than expected. Among them, Germany, the EU’s largest economy, had zero GDP growth in the first quarter.
Carsten Brzeski, director of macro research at ING, believes that the low GDP growth rate in the first quarter and the significant gap between member states show that the euro zone economy is on the verge of stagnation. Rory Fennessey, an economist at Oxford Economics, predicts that due to high inflation and tightening financial conditions, the European economy will hardly see a substantial improvement this year.
Better-than-expected: China’s economy recovers
At the same time, China’s economic growth is better than expected, market demand is gradually recovering, economic development is showing a recovery trend, and economic operation has achieved a good start.
In the first quarter of this year, China’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 4% consensus forecast by overseas institutions, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. The international market responded positively to this. Many international financial institutions raised their forecasts for China’s annual economic growth, among which Citigroup, Société Générale and JPMorgan Chase raised their forecasts to 6.1%, 6% and 6.4% respectively.
International observers believe that China’s economy can maintain faster-than-expected growth, which is inseparable from the coordinated efforts of China’s macroeconomic policies. Slovenian economist Bogmir Fairfila said that China’s economy has grown steadily, and macro policies have always been the core of stability.
Sergei Tsyprakov, a professor of the Department of World Economics and Politics at the Russian Higher University of Economics, believes that China’s economy has huge potential for development, and its advantage lies in the fact that it has established a complete industrial production structure in the country. “This is not the case in other countries in the world. see more”.
For the Chinese government to continue to release policy signals of comprehensively deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening-up, Ronnie Lins, director of the Brazilian Center for China Studies, said, “The Chinese government continues to implement balanced macroeconomic policies, promote opening up, and deepen necessary reforms. I believe that with the continuation of this trend, the Chinese economy will achieve better-than-expected growth in 2023.”
Naoki Umehara, a researcher at Japan’s International Monetary Research Institute, said that China’s economy has made a good start, and optimism around China’s economic prospects continues to grow.
Abu Bakr Dib, a consultant at the Center for Arab Studies in Egypt, believes that all parties are optimistic about China’s economic development prospects, and the Chinese government has introduced a series of measures to lay a good foundation for economic growth in 2023. China’s economy grew significantly in the first quarter of this year, while the growth of many developed economies was sluggish. The Chinese economy is expected to provide a strong impetus for global economic growth.
Global Expectations: Sharing New Opportunities for China’s Development
Against the background of the sluggish recovery of the world economy as a whole, China’s economic development has made a good start, reflecting the spring and vitality of the Chinese economy and becoming a bright color of world economic growth. The Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience and exceeded expectations, bringing confidence and opportunities to the world economy full of risks and challenges.
Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said the Chinese economy will contribute about one-third of global growth in 2023. She pointed out that the strong recovery of China’s economy is not only very important to China, but also of great significance to the world. Every 1 percentage point increase in China’s economic growth rate will increase the growth rate of economies related to China by 0.3 percentage points.
World Bank President Malpass said the bank has raised its global growth forecast to 2% in 2023, up from its previous forecast of 1.7%, thanks to an improving outlook for China’s economy.
Angolan economist Manuel Rocha said the latest data prove the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy and are also of great significance to the global economy. He believes that China is an important engine of global economic growth, and China’s economic development model brings inspiration to developing regions including Africa.
The World Trade Organization recently released the “Global Trade Data and Prospects” report, which raised the forecast for the growth rate of global trade in goods this year from 1% to 1.7%, arguing that the release of China’s consumer demand will promote the growth of international trade. Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, said that China is “important” in the global trading system, and China’s foreign trade performance will promote the economic and trade development of other countries and regions.
“The important information released by the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee shows to the outside world China’s determination to continue to promote high-level opening up, which will significantly strengthen China’s important position as a global investment destination, a gathering place for advanced production factors and a source of innovation.” Australian Economics Expert Guo Shengxiang said that the Chinese government has decided to put more importance on attracting foreign investment, and support qualified free trade pilot zones and free trade ports to connect with international high-standard economic and trade rules, which will help countries around the world share China’s opportunities.
The business circles of various countries have taken practical actions: Tesla of the United States announced that it will increase investment in China and build a new energy storage super factory; Airbus of France announced that it will build a second production line in Tianjin; 1 billion euros to build a pure electric intelligent connected vehicle research and development, innovation and parts procurement center…
Hidetoshi Tashiro, Chief Economist of Japan’s Sigma Capital Corporation, said that the huge scale and rapid growth of the Chinese market provide opportunities for foreign companies to expand their careers by leaps and bounds. (Comprehensive report by Xinhua News Agency reporters stationed abroad, note-takers Su Liang and Deng Qian)
Editor: Wu Jiahong