Economic recession, hyperinflation and political, internal and international tensions. The years that Venezuela has experienced have been tough, from 2015 onwards. “Night in Caracas”, is not just a good novel by Karina Sainz Borgo, it is the portrait of a country plunged into a serious economic, political and social crisis that has bordered on civil war. A country split in two, between supporters and opponents of Nicolás Maduro’s government. The embargo that the United States has applied to Caracas has aggravated the recession and exacerbated the conflict. Now something is unlocking: the United States announces its intention to ease the economic sanctions affecting Venezuela.
The Russian-Ukrainian war also generates externalities outside Europe and Venezuelan oil is the commodity that could drive the thaw between the United States and Venezuela. The Biden administration has said it will ease some economic sanctions against the Venezuelan Maduro regime to encourage negotiations between the government and the opposition. He specified that he will proceed in this sense at the “request” of Juan Guaidó, the leader of the opposition, self-proclaimed president of Venezuela.
Less stringent embargo
What is the approximation of positions? Less harsh embargo, first of all, and then the overcoming of the ban on American oil companies to work in Caracas. Chevron, for example, will be able to negotiate its licenses with PDVSA, the national energy company. This takes on a double meaning, political and economic. The lack of communication between Biden and Maduro seems to have been overcome and the recovery of crude oil production is the most direct consequence. Yes, because the production of crude oil has dropped from 3 million barrels per day, in its best years, to less than 600 thousand per day in 2020. The lack of maintenance of the plants and above all the absence of international operators has forced Caracas to a level of very low extractions.
The go-ahead from the Maduro government
From Palacio Miraflores the statement was this: “The government of Venezuela – said executive vice president Delcy Rodríguez – has verified and confirmed news according to which the United States has authorized national and European oil companies to negotiate with Caracas and restart operations. in Venezuela “. And then again: “Venezuela – he continued – aspires to have these decisions by the United States pave the way for the total lifting of the illegal sanctions that affect all our people”. Rodríguez finally said that “our government, based on its deep democratic values, will tirelessly continue to promote, with the internal opposition, a fruitful dialogue in a national and international context”.
A relaxation, then. The United States and Venezuela could open a season of greater opening, with mutual concessions. From Washington the de facto government of President Maduro is legitimized; and from Caracas the principle of technical and technological collaboration is accepted, without which the extraction of crude oil is destined to remain at too low levels to restart the economy of the country, oil-dependent.