The elections in Türkiye ended up with the least promising scenario of all: the ballot. With the polls closed, the candidate of the opposition Kemal Kilicadaroglu reached 45 percent, while the outgoing president Recep Tayyip Erfogan it reached 49.5. Sinan Ogana member of the ultra-nationalist party, won an unexpected 5 percent, while the right-wing candidate Ince, who withdrew a few days earlier but after the votes abroad, obtained 0.5. Neither candidates main he got the numbers needed to win, albeit for a short time. The second round it is now expected for May 28, but the two weeks of electoral campaign risk benefiting those still in power to the detriment of an opposition that has been able to catalyze dissent but which has less room for maneuver than the outgoing president.
Arrive at a result definitive has not been simple. The opposition contested i data officers while the outgoing president waited until the last minute bare of votes from abroad in the hope of getting the two percent needed for victory. After hours of waiting, both contenders had to admit that they failed to win in the first round.
To make the situation even more complex were the projectionsVery challenge and released a full three hours ahead of schedule. The pro-government news agency Anadolu has reported highly favorable data towards the president since the beginning, but the oppositions have responded by relaunching their count and once again focusing on communication via social media. The mayors of Istanbul e you Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu e Mansur Yavasboth prominent members of the party kemalista of opposition Chphave publicly questioned the validity of the data released by Electoral Committee and invited their supporters not to leave the seats to make sure they weren’t there fraud. The same message was spread hours later by Erdoganwhich in turn contested the information which were being spread by his opponents, while the spokesman of his match accused the opposition of not wanting to accept a result unfavorable. Distrust of the Agency Anadolu on the other hand, it is justified: on the occasion of the local elections of 2019, the site stopped publishing the results for about 12 hours in order not to communicate the victory of the opposition.
Only in the last hours of counting the projections of the two sides have started to look alikeconfirming the scenario of the ballot despite the delay caused by the recount requested by the ruling party, the AKP, in various polling stations in the country.
The initial advantage of Erdogan it was actually widely expected. The first cities to be scrutinized were those in the hinterland generally loyal to the incumbent president and which have once again confirmed their support for him. As the hours go by the difference between the two candidates gradually decreased and around midnight Erdogan it has officially fallen below 50 percent of the vote, after a peak of 60 percent. It took the opposition several hours to admit that they did not get the vittoriacontinuing to question the official results and waiting for the complete counting of seats before acknowledging the validity of the official count.
The failure to win in the first round was however welcomed as positive news in its own way by Erdoganwho took to the streets around midnight a Istanbul to celebrate with his supporters before heading to Ankara. From the headquarters ofAkp of the capital, around 2 local time, the outgoing president thanked his family again votersreaffirming the success achieved in these historic ones elections. Even the opposition harangued its voters promising to win in the second round, but in this new race for the presidency the two candidates start from very different positions. The outgoing president can once again count on huge economic resources public and has another two weeks to implement measures in support of his electorate and win the votes of the undecided. A few days before the first elections, Erdogan he had guaranteed free gas for a month and approved a further increase in the salary of civil servants, as well as having promised the construction of at least 300,000 new houses in the areas affected by the earthquake. His words, according to the resultshave actually made inroads into the heart of the people turco and of the earthquake victims themselves, who voted overwhelmingly for the outgoing president.
The opposition, on the other hand, is more disadvantaged. Kilicdaroglu does not have the same power as Erdogan and it can only continue to promise democratic reforms and an economic recovery, as perfectly summed up in its slogan “Sana Sozu”, “I promise you”. It will also be difficult for the opposition to keep their own morale high supporterswho were hoping for a victory in the first round and the start of a change process once again postponed until a later date.
To discourage the voters of the opposition could also be the result of parliamentary elections. The alliance formed by the party of Erdogan and by the nationalists of the Mhp obtained 49 percent of the preferences against 35 percent of the alliance formed by Kemalist (CHP) and the second opposition party, the Iyi Parti. So too Green Left (Ysp), the Green Left under which the pro-Kurds of the HDP converged, reached only 10 percent of the preferences, confirming the 2019 figure and obtaining 61 seats instead of one hundred as initially hoped. The YSP recorded a landslide victory in the Kurdish-majority south-east, which was already celebrating victory a few hours after the start of the count, but failed to expand its electoral base to other areas of the country. In any case the support of the Kurds to the opposition candidate was decisive and will continue to be so also in the second round. The next two weeks will certainly reserve many surprises, but the risk is that to have the upper hand after months of campagna electoral so tight are there tiredness and the sense of impotenceto the benefit of Sultan. The vote of 14 May, however, demonstrated that the future of Türkiye everything is yet to be written and that it is good not to take anything for granted until the last minute.