Ukraine crisis exposes multiple contradictions in the West
2022-01-30 09:28:20Source: Xinhuanet
Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Jizhi Tang Ji Zhang Zhang
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on the 28th that Russia will decide its next steps after carefully studying the written replies received by the United States and NATO on the security guarantee agreement on the 26th. Putin emphasized that the United States and NATO did not respond to Russia’s core concerns in their written replies.
Analysts pointed out that Ukrainian-Russian relations have been deteriorating rapidly recently. Judging from the current situation, it is still difficult to predict how the Ukrainian crisis will be resolved, but this crisis has exposed many contradictions between the United States and Europe and even within Europe.
Contradictions between Europe and America
After the Biden administration of the United States came to power, it took a tough stance on Russia. It repeatedly encouraged Ukraine to confront Russia, expressed support for Ukraine to join NATO, and strengthened military assistance to the Ukrainian government. In recent times, the United States has repeatedly sent weapons to Ukraine, escalating regional tensions.
Analysts pointed out that one of the purposes of the recent US actions in Ukraine is to provoke Russia-EU relations, win over European allies, and strengthen their military dependence on the United States. Once a large-scale conflict breaks out in eastern Ukraine again, it will be difficult for Russia to stay out of it, and Europe will have to follow the United States to sanction Russia, and the United States can take the opportunity to reap the benefits.
However, what the United States is doing has not received unanimous support from its European allies. Except for the United Kingdom and some countries in Central and Eastern Europe, most countries in Europe are reluctant to see tensions in Ukraine escalate. Neither France nor Germany are willing to follow the United States on the Ukraine issue. France has long advocated for dialogue with Russia, while Germany has made clear its reluctance to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons aid. Croatian President Milanovic made it clear on the 25th that in the event of a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, instead of sending troops to the war, Croatia will withdraw all troops. He also said Russia’s security interests should be taken into account in the negotiations.
Molny, deputy director of the French Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies, pointed out that, except for a few countries such as the three Baltic countries, the vast majority of NATO members in Europe have always wanted Ukraine to join NATO and are unwilling to be involved in the Ukraine crisis.
Analysts said that European countries are well aware that once a war breaks out, the United States will not be affected too much, but the risk of the security situation in the European region getting out of control will inevitably increase. At the same time, for European countries that rely on Russian energy, if they follow the United States to increase sanctions against Russia, it will inevitably lead to Russia’s counter-sanctions. The European countries themselves will be the most affected.
Disagreement within Europe
In addition to the contradictions between the United States and Europe, the Ukraine crisis also exposed the many contradictions within European countries.
First of all, unlike other European countries, the “Brexit” Britain is closely tied to the United States on many issues, and the Ukraine crisis is no exception. The United Kingdom followed the United States to send weapons to Ukraine; the British Foreign Office also announced a few days ago that it has decided to temporarily evacuate some staff and family members of the British embassy in Ukraine from Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
Secondly, Germany, France and other “old European” countries have relatively close economic, especially energy cooperation with Russia, have a clearer understanding of the consequences of following the United States and Russia in bad relations, have a more rational attitude towards Russia on the Ukraine issue, and advocate dialogue . On the other hand, some “New European” countries in Central and Eastern Europe are wary of Russia because of historical issues, and are very dissatisfied with France and Germany. Old and new Europe is clearly divided on whether to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons aid. Latvian Defense Minister Pabriks said in an interview with the media that Germany has lived in peace for many years, and they think about gas, exports and cooperation, and for countries next to Russia, it is “survival issues” .
Third, there are also differences within the German coalition government on the issue of Russia. On the issue of the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline project, the Green Party of German Foreign Minister Berberk is opposed to the project, while the Social Democrats of Chancellor Scholz want to move forward with the project. The direction of Germany’s position will largely determine the EU’s ability to exert pressure on Russia, and whether the US and the EU can maintain the current state of negotiations.
There is still hope for peace talks
The “Normandy Model” Quartet Talks was held in Paris on the 26th. Representatives of the Quartet from France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine held consultations on issues such as easing the Ukrainian crisis. The Quartet said after the talks that all parties should abide by the ceasefire agreement unconditionally and accelerate the implementation of the Minsk agreement.
Macron and Putin exchanged views on the relevant situation of the talks in the phone call on the 28th, and both sides expressed satisfaction with the work carried out in this form. On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed issues such as speeding up the “Normandy model” quadrilateral talks in a phone call with Macron.
In the written reply on the 26th, the United States and NATO stopped the expansion of NATO, did not deploy strike weapons near the Russian border, and restored the military deployment and related infrastructure to the state in 1997 when Russia and NATO signed the basic relationship document. concerned and did not respond. However, according to media reports, Putin said in a phone call with Macron that Russia has no offensive plans and is willing to continue dialogue with the West. Zelensky also called on the West not to create panic on the 28th. He said that the possibility of escalation of the situation cannot be ruled out, but there is no need to panic.
U.S. President Biden said on the 28th that he will soon send a small number of U.S. troops to Eastern Europe and NATO member countries to deal with tensions on the border between Russia and Ukraine. Analysts pointed out that the holding of the “Normandy Model” four-party talks and the phone calls between the leaders of Russia, France and Ufa are undoubtedly positive factors to promote the settlement of the crisis in Ukraine through peace talks, but the US’s remarks and practices may once again exacerbate the tension in Ukraine.