The only numbers that will really matter in the Iowa caucuses are the votes counted in favor of Donald J. Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy. But there are a series of numbers that help better illustrate the importance of the comparison in America’s breadbasket, seven in particular which, as the New York Times explains, show how we got here and what comes next.
28
The percentage points that furrow Trump’s lead in the Midwestern state
In the Iowa poll published Saturday evening by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, Trump has 48% of the votes of likely caucus attendees. That’s a dominant figure that exceeds the total support measured for Haley (20%) and DeSantis (16%) combined. That’s more than double the largest margin of victory achieved by a Republican in a previous caucus. Trump leads every demographic group, and his voters have expressed greater enthusiasm than his rivals. Trump lost Iowa in 2016 and his rivals, in particular DeSantis, potentially popular with the state’s white, rural and evangelical voters, had a chance to overcome him. But on the eve of the vote it seems that the only battle we can expect is the one for second place.
3.000.000
The number of doors a pro-DeSantis super PAC has knocked on nationwide
If DeSantis has a better-than-expected showing Monday night it is because of the major organizing effort led by his super PACs (political action committees that are different from traditional PACs in that they can raise unlimited amounts from individuals, corporations, unions and other groups to spend, e.g. , in advertisements openly for or against political candidates). “Never Back Down” has been pushing cash aggressively since the summer. The super PAC knocked on its millionth door in July, its two millionth door in September and its three millionth door in recent days. Much of the attention has focused on Iowa, where the super PAC says more than 935,000 doors have been knocked on doors in total.
-33
The lows expected in Des Moines on Monday evening are Fahrenheit (-36 centigrade).
The weather is so frigid in Iowa that the bishop of the Diocese of Des Moines has granted a “general dispensation” from attending Sunday Mass, citing the severity of the winter storm. And it’s not expected to be any better on Monday evening, when voters gather for their caucuses at 7pm local time. The forecasts raise doubts about participation and increase the level of widespread uncertainty. Until recently, both the Trump and DeSantis campaigns expected turnout to top 200,000 caucus attendees, breaking the record set in 2016, when about 186,000 people voted. But the Arctic climate has scaled back expectations or, at least, raised serious questions not only about who will participate, but who will benefit. Haley is expected to do better in more urban areas – where road conditions are less likely to be a concern – so that’s a plus for her. DeSantis is believed to have the largest organizational structure in the state, and that could give him an advantage in pushing his most likely supporters to the polls. Trump’s team has said they have the most passionate supporters, so they’re banking on passion and loyalty.
3
Nikki Haley’s vote share among non-college-educated Republicans
As highlighted in polls in recent months, both nationally and in early states, much of the Indian-origin candidate’s growth comes from consolidating support among the Republican Party’s more educated voters. In fact, in the latest Times/Siena poll, nationwide, she was getting 28% of the vote among college-educated Republicans, practically on the heels of Trump’s 39%. The story was starkly different among Republicans who didn’t graduate from college among whom Trump boasts a commanding 76% support to Haley’s 3%. It’s one of the reasons why the former UN ambassador is doing stronger in New Hampshire. In the most recent CNN poll, she appeared to boast 41% of those who had held a post-graduation job, giving her a huge lead over Trump’s 25% (she also had a 12-point lead among college graduates). Her problem remains that the party’s base largely did not attend college. Until she starts rising higher in that crowd, her ceiling will remain low.
46.499.124,63
The dollar amount of spending by super PACs opposing Ron DeSantis
The Florida governor is the candidate who has faced the brunt of attacks from super PACs in a blizzard of ads and mailings that has blanketed Iowa. The $46.5 million spent against him is a substantial sum, and far greater than the total spending by super PACs against Trump and Haley combined. Another way to read the positioning is the share of negative spending versus positive support, where the results are equally unbalanced. Spending to support Haley exceeded negative spending against her by nearly $50 million, and DeSantis faced about $9 million more in attacks than he received in advertising supporting the super PAC.
5.865
The (miserable) dollar cost of the DeSantis campaign’s TV ad in Sioux City’s “barometer” district
In a state where DeSantis has invested heavily in his candidacy, his campaign is skimping on TV ads in the final days of the race, a sign of the financial stress he is under. Overall, data from AdImpact, a media tracking company, shows Florida’s governor spent $202,400 this week on TV for Iowa. A figure not only lower than that spent by Haley ($467,565) and Trump ($1.42 million), but also slightly lower than those of the much less well-known Ryan Binkley ($204,984), a self-financed candidate. businessman and pastor who has never qualified for a debate. Nowhere is the spending more revealing than in western Iowa’s Sioux City district, which covers some of the state’s most conservative congressional districts and is the kind of place where Mr. DeSantis once hoped to compete for votes with the former president. According to AdImpact, DeSantis spent just $5,865, compared to Trump’s $237,393.
0
The debate appearances of the 45th US president
Trump’s decision not to confront any of his rivals proved to be one of the most impactful tactical choices of the cycle. He let them crash into each other – literally – while he avoided the fray. His rivals complained. They tried to goad him – or blame him – on stage. One of the reasons Chris Christie gave for entering the contest in the first place was that he was the only candidate who could go head-to-head with Trump in a debate setting. But Christie exited the race without even managing to realize his chance. Trump has made it clear that unless he feels politically vulnerable, he won’t show up. And he doesn’t feel vulnerable yet. So, on Wednesday, the final match before the caucuses between Haley and DeSantis, who spent two hours arguing on CNN, couldn’t help but seem like a challenge for second place. Trump, as he has already done in the past, has set up a sort of counterprogramming on Fox News. And the next day’s data only poured salt into the wound of his two main challengers: according to Nielsen, Trump’s townhall attracted far more viewers (4.3 million) than the debate (2.6 million).