NEW YORK – “December 23 is already late. Italy may have a couple of weeks of advantage, but it must exploit them by immediately applying the measures against Omicron”. It is the solicitation he sends to the government Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University in Boston, one of the world‘s leading experts in infectious disease analysis models.
WHO predicts a “tsunami of contagions”.
“We know a number of things. Omicron spreads much faster. We have had confirmation that an evasion part of the immune system is there. The growth in cases is impressive, we have never seen it at this speed, with timescales. doubling by two and a half days, three. The booster of the third dose of vaccine, like infection combined with a full vaccination course, gives a fairly high protection from Omicron. This is a fact that in countries like ours could help to keep the situation under control, and pushes to speed up the recalls. The number of severe cases, if one is protected by the vaccine, is much less. But the phenomenon is grafted onto a bed of Delta infections that we could barely contain, and for the hospital system it can become a big problem “.
Coronavirus, Omicron’s advance in the world: Italy under siege
by Anais Ginori, Antonello Guerrera, Anna Lombardi, Gianluca Modolo, Rossella Tercatin
We don’t know if the lower severity is due to Omicron, but do we know that the vaccine reduces it?
“It is the fundamental thing: being vaccinated and having the third dose lowers the risk of hospitalization and complications. However, the speed and number of cases are worrying, also because in the Italian situation there is already pressure on the health system for Delta”.
Are hospitalizations already on the rise?
“Yes. We got used in the previous waves to a very time-consuming decision-making process, while here we are not. By doubling every three days or so, we can’t take a week to hold meetings and decide, because it means quadrupling the impact of the We need to speed up the management of the crisis a lot, but in Italy there is the idea that we are in a different situation. We should have already learned that there can be a week late, ten days, but the patterns repeat themselves and Omicron gives we are there. The last measurement says that we are at 0.2%, but it was at the beginning of December and the percentages are already higher. Within a week you find yourself in the conditions of the other countries. This must be absorbed quickly by who decides, because times are tight “.
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How many days do we have?
“A precise forecast cannot be made, because in Italy the prevalence of Omicron is not measured every day, such as in the United Kingdom or Denmark.”
Two or three weeks?
“Let’s say two. Whatever you want to do, it must be done quickly.”
The government is planning a meeting on December 23rd.
“Exactly, it means that things are done for the new year, and it’s a little late. So you burn the advantage.”
What needs to be done?
“I don’t say that anymore, it’s up to the decision makers. We’ve been talking about preparing the infrastructure for sequencing, schools, home tests for two years, but it didn’t happen and that’s a bit frustrating.”
Masks, distancing, hygiene?
“Everything that has always been said remains useful, because the virus is transmitted in the same way. Especially in winter, because we are more indoors”.
What do you respond to those who notice that the vaccinated also get sick?
“To say that the vaccine is useless is one of the biggest nonsense in the universe. It protects the person from the most serious evolution of the disease, and slows the spread. These are crucial days, we should take advantage of the holidays to speed up vaccinations instead. contagions. Anyone who can call, run to do it “.
Will we have to live with Covid as with the flu?
“The complaints about the third or fourth dose make no sense. There are many diseases that we have made endless calls. Is Omicron the final queue? We don’t know, nothing prevents us from coming later. Maybe we got the communication wrong, giving the” the impression that the two doses were the decisive weapon. Not so: the vaccine is very important, but it is possible that it needs to be modified, perhaps every year. We have to prepare ourselves. Without panic, but with awareness “.
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