French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated that in the future it may be appropriate to deploy ground forces in Ukraine. Several Western countries have distanced themselves from the Macron move.
But the plan also receives support in some Eastern European countries.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was confronted with the Macron move on Monday morning. Putin was asked by a Reuters journalist if there was a possibility that a direct conflict could break out between Russia and NATO.
– Everything is possible in the modern world, answered Putin.
– It is obvious to everyone that it will be one step away from a full-scale third world war. I think nobody is interested in that, Putin added Reuters.
President Putin also said that there were already NATO military personnel on Ukrainian soil, as Russia had picked up that both English and French were spoken on the battlefield.
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Putin also raised nuclear threats against the West in an interview with state-run Russian television ahead of last week’s presidential election.
Macron repeated the message about a possible deployment of French ground forces in Ukraine in a TV interview the day before he was due to meet German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Friday last week.
– The way I interpret Macron, this is outside the NATO framework, but in a loose coalition between France and like-minded allies who gradually understand one thing: And that is that Russia is not as dangerous as what the Europeans thought in the first two years, says professor at The Defense College, Tormod Heier, to Nettavisen.
– Macron’s proposal thus joins a pattern where the Europeans have become tougher and tougher in the last two years because they see that the credibility of Russia’s conventional and nuclear forces is increasingly eroded. And then more and more Europeans dare to be more daring, says Heier.
– I don’t think Putin is that careful about it
Karsten Friis, who is a senior researcher at Nupi, believes that it is likely that NATO countries will be able to deploy ground forces in Ukraine in the future.
– I think it is very likely. Not fighting forces, but military advisers and instructors. Now thousands of Ukrainians are flown in to Germany and Great Britain to give them military training. It would have been much easier to send the instructors the other way, says Friis to Nettavisen.
– Some of the debate with Macron was that Scholz said that France already had soldiers in Ukraine. Point one is that this is not surprising. Point two is that this should not be escalating. As long as forces from NATO countries do not shoot at the Russians, it is no different than us giving Ukraine tanks and aircraft, or assisting with the maintenance of aircraft, says Friis.
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Macron and Scholz have recently had different approaches to Ukraine support. Macron has led a slightly rougher war rhetoric in public, while Scholz has been a little more reserved.
Macron has apparently criticized Scholz for not donating long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, while Scholz has openly said that deploying forces on Ukrainian soil is completely out of the question.
– But what does Putin mean by this statement? Is he referring to combat forces or military advisers and instructors, Friis?
– I don’t think Putin is that careful about it. He probably wants to nurse as he usually does. He sees that there is some disagreement between Macron and Scholz, and is thus trying to threaten, intimidate and weaken Western unity, says Friis.
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Already on the first day of Russia’s major invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin issued fierce nuclear threats against any actor who tried to interfere in the conflict.
Western countries were therefore very cautious about donating military equipment to the Ukrainians at first.
– In a sense, the Europeans have been through an incredible journey from limiting aid to helmets, sanitary equipment and M72 at the beginning of the war, to sending advanced tanks and fighter jets today – and perhaps also soldiers who will operate on the ground inside Ukraine, says Heier.
– Does that mean western soldiers shooting at the Russians, Heyer?
– No, that means carrying out maintenance, perhaps demining, logistics tasks, training and education. But also advice and delivering important intelligence on Russian movements, he says.
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– The toolbox is getting quite empty
– Where do you think the border with Putin is, Heier?
– I think Putin sets the limit if he feels that the Ukraine war is beginning to undermine the political and social stability inside Russia, and perhaps the viability of Putin’s own regime. But as long as the hostilities are limited to Ukrainian territory, the danger of further escalation is small, he says.
– The question is whether Western aid on Ukrainian territory will primarily lead to a halt to Russian advances, and not necessarily a liberation of the five regions Russia has already occupied, says Heier.
Russia currently occupies approximately 18 percent of Ukraine, annexing the five Ukrainian regions of Krym, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Luhansk, and Donetsk.
– As long as the Western efforts are limited to this, in Russian eyes it will not be seen as an existential threat to Russia’s political system of governance and national sovereignty. And then nuclear weapons will not be a very relevant countermeasure either. The West balances between helping the Ukrainians as much as possible without provoking a nuclear war, says Heier.
Heier says the Russian room for action is very limited when Putin has to constantly threaten nuclear weapons because he has no other means of communicating Russian warnings.
– His toolbox is getting quite empty, says Heier.
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Does not rule out Western forces in Ukraine
Heier does not rule out that Norway will be able to send Norwegian military personnel to Ukraine if many other Western countries choose to do so.
– In this war, Norway follows the other allies. Norway will never go to the front and push forward new military initiatives. It is a role that is far too large in relation to what the Norwegian authorities are comfortable with. But if it turns out that many allies start this galley, it may be difficult for Norway to stay out, he says.
Heier points out that it is important for Norway to show unity and solidarity with the West in today’s security policy situation.
– If an impression is now formed in the West that the Russian nuclear threats are hollow and without credibility, and that more and more people feel that it is critically important for Ukraine not to lose a foothold in the defense and in the rest of the country, this is a possible measure which may see the light of day. But then within a coalition of like-minded states, says Heier.