One of the major consequences of the “betrayal” of PMC Wagner and of the boundless ambitions of its founder, as stated among others by the colonel general Andrei Kartapolovchairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, i.e. the Russian Parliament, is that the mercenaries of Yevgeny Prigozhin they will no longer be able to fight in the war in Ukraine. However, for a couple of weeks the “Wagnerians” had already put themselves out of the game by refusing to sign the contract – made mandatory – with the Russian Defense Ministry: to fight the war of Vladimir Putin one must make oneself docile to the orders of the minister who has served the longest in the Russian government, Sergei Shoigu precisely.
A few months ago the State Duma itself had argued that they should be punishable by a prison sentence of up to 15 years those who had criticized or discredited the “volunteers” who fought alongside the Russian army and approved the pardons of all those suspected and convicted of almost all crimes, even the most despicable and horrific ones – except pedophilia e terrorism -, that they had offered to join as “volunteers”, ie mercenaries.
PMC Wagner’s exit from Ukraine – be it related to the contract issue or the June 24 rebellion – entails the definitive disappearance of one of the protagonists of the war, precisely the mercenary company founded and directed by the ex “Putin’s cook”. It is undeniable that in the two most important battles fought on the eastern front, that of solder and above all the ferocious one of Bakhmutthe role of PMC Wagner was decisive to say the least: compared to the forces of the Ministry of Defense, which collected so many bad impressions on the southern front during the abortive “big offensive” of January-February, in Donbass Prigozhin’s mercenaries have indeed treated many ex-criminal conscripts around the country Russia come cannon fodder for suicide operations, but have also often demonstrated a level of training it’s a discipline unknown to Russian regular troops. In short, to remove fighters from their borders who can no longer afford the luxury of trusting, the Kremlin he must deprive himself of the strengths that more than others can make the difference. Putin does this knowing that the best troops were destroyed between February and March 2022 during the failure of the battle of Kievby the same general Oleksandr Syrskyi who in Bakhmut fought so hard against the terrible mercenaries of the “cook”.
Since the beginning of June, once the conquest of Bakhmut’s urban area was completed, the withdrawal of Prigozhin’s troops had already begun – and had been completed just before last Saturday. It immediately seemed clear that the handover had not occurred precisely between equivalent forces: it took the Ukrainians less than a week from the departure of the last “Wagnerian” to set foot again in the territory of the Donbass town, after having almost completed the conquest of the her hips and then approaching theencirclement. All this happened without the mercenary company being an active fighter anymore, but remaining in the rear until the 24th and then out of Ukraine from the date of the failed coup. Now there is no longer even the prospect of a future collective employment of mercenaries on the territory of Donbass or anywhere else in Ukraine: for the Russian Defense this is a loss of strategic dimensions, given that it can affect not only individual theaters or operations but on the outcome of the war itself.
Now the Ministry of Defence, which was previously committed to “holding the flanks” while PMC Wagner “worked” the urban center of Bakhmut, will have to shift resources from other fronts to avoid losing what was the only territory conquered in the last few twelve months. At the price of 80 thousand losses, according to some sources. He will have to do it having in the meantime lost his hips and finding himself also busy containing the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the South. And to think that various Russian oligarchs, as well as Shoigu himself, made their own company of mercenaries: however, once pushed close to the front, all of them withdrew, citing as an explanation not being adequately prepared for clashes of that extent. In short, PMC Wagner was from another planet compared to them.
The Russians themselves realized how fearsome the “Wagnerians” were on June 24 during the then vanished rebellion, when Prigozhin’s men easily shot down seven Russian helicopters and planes in the space of a few hours, a result never achieved by the Ukrainians throughout the war. In short, those who have withdrawn from Ukraine – due to the rebellion but also due to the constant conflicts over supplies – are 20-30 thousand of the best fighters available in Russia, valuable commodity for the Kremlin.
And to think that, left without tasks after the conquest of Bakhmut and retired to “repair the damage” in Donbass, the “cook’s” mercenaries could have been deployed to protect the Russian-Ukrainian border from parts of Belgorod, a sieve that forces Moscow to withdraw resources from the other fronts of the war so as not to risk, sooner or later, pro-Ukrainian Russian rebels in the capital of the oblast and perhaps applauded by the population like Prigozhin’s troops. It should be noted that 95% of the Russian armed forces are currently deployed in Ukraine.
Will former mercenaries be able to be employed individually if they agree to sign a contract with Shoigu and Gerasimov? Operationally, yes. However, the arrival of individual war professionals in untrained battalions with low morale is likely to cause confusion e you contrast, with no combat benefits. In the aftermath of the definitive removal of the “Wagnerians”, Ryan O’Leary, an American who serves as a non-commissioned officer in the Ukrainian military, said he expects this fact to benefit his unit in the days and weeks ahead. After all, Russia retains all its terrible things logistics and troop morale problems: in short, it remains the same, but without PMC Wagner.