The political elections held on Sunday in Greece were won by the party currently in government, Nea Demokratia, conservative and center-right, followed by Syriza, the main left-wing party led by Alexis Tsipras, and the socialists of PASOK. However, Nea Demokratia obtained 146 seats out of 300, below the threshold needed to have an absolute majority in parliament. A series of negotiations will now begin to try to form a coalition government which will then obtain trust: but if this does not happen, as several observers in the local newspapers predict, a second round will be held between the end of June and the beginning of July.
Article 37 of the Greek Constitution provides that if the party that finished first in the elections has not obtained an absolute majority of seats, the President of the Republic (now the President, Katerina Sakellaropoulou) gives its leader an exploratory mandate to try to form a government . In this case it will be the turn of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Nea Demokratia. If Mitsotakis fails to do so, it will be the turn of the second-placed leader of the party, therefore Alexis Tsipras. And then, in case of his failure, to the third-placed party leader, Nikos Androulakis of PASOK.
Each exploratory mandate will last three days, but if none are successful, the president will ask for the formation of a provisional government that gathers the broadest possible consensus among the political forces present in parliament with the aim of reaching the second round of elections.
However, another electoral system will apply to the second round, different from the simple proportional system used to vote on Sunday.
The simple proportional system, which eliminated the majority premium, was approved in 2016 by the then left-wing government led by Syriza. After winning the elections in January 2020 Nea Demokratia, which has always been a supporter of the majority premium, had approved a new electoral law to restore it, albeit with a different formula. The law had been approved in 2020 by parliament with a simple majority and instead a majority of at least two thirds would have been needed for it to enter into force immediately. Its application date has therefore been postponed to the elections following the first vote for the renewal of the parliament, therefore to the possible second round of the 2023 policies.
The electoral system wanted by Nea Demokratia is a reinforced proportional system: the first party, if it exceeds 25 percent, receives a bonus of at least 20 seats, which progressively rise to a maximum of 50 if it reaches 40 percent; the remaining seats are allocated proportionally.
Greek newspapers they write that it is very likely that the consultations will not lead to anything concrete. After the announcement of the results Mitsotakis said he had received a “strong and autonomous” mandate to govern, confirming what he had anticipated before the vote, namely that he is unlikely to join forces with any other party to create a government of coalition. Mitsotakis is aiming for the second round which, with strengthened proportional representation, could give him the possibility of governing alone: ”The results have been more than clear,” he commented: “Citizens want a strong government, with a four-year mandate, to bold reforms”.
However, it is not clear who Mitsotakis could possibly ally with. The seats won in the first round by the far-right party Greek Solution (EL), which entered parliament in 2019 and heir to Golden Dawn, are 16 and with these Nea Demokratia would obtain a large majority. But the president of Greek Solution, Kyriakos Velopoulos, had already said before Sunday’s vote that he would not enter a coalition government with the prime minister.
An alliance between Nea Demokratia and PASOK is also very unlikely, relations with which have worsened after the wiretapping scandal of 2022, when the socialist leader Androulakis had complained that he had been wiretapped for months by the Greek secret services; the same ones that, precisely by choice of Mitsotakis, had been placed under the direct control of the prime minister’s office. Any coalition between New Democracy and Syriza is naturally excluded.
As for Syriza: PASOK’s electoral program is ideally close to Syriza’s, but the two parties do not have good relations as Androulakis accuses Tsipras of stealing his voters. Even if it were, a progressive coalition between Syriza and the socialists it would still not be enough for a majority (the sum of the seats obtained by the two would be 112). Nor would a majority be achieved if the Communists of the KKE join, which in any case have shown no will to do so: they would bring the seats to 138. No other party, not even that of former Economy Minister Yanis Varoufakis, MeRA25, it exceeded the 3 percent threshold established by the electoral law.