A slow and expensive war. It couldn’t be otherwise: the Ukrainians must break through, the Russians must hold. Thus the changes appear reduced, and it is the protagonists themselves who recognize this by speaking of hundreds of meters reconquered.
Eastern Front
The invaders have gained some positions around Kupyansk, the heart of their counteroffensive. With two objectives: acquire territories and force opponents to keep troops in the area (instead of diverting them to the south). The Ukrainians try to respond anyway. The situation is reversed in Bakhmut, where the resistance has the initiative. The “failure” of a Russian unit near Andriivka was reported, decimated – according to some – by friendly fire. The artillery reportedly received incorrect information from the reconnaissance. The entire Donbass region remains a tragic «grinder».
Southern Front
The Ukrainians advance south of Robotyne and west of Verbove, the two key locations. In pro-Russian circles there is alarm about the progression, they would have brought in reserves and, as experts note, the resistance situation has improved compared to a few weeks ago. However, Zelensky’s brigades still remain far from their objectives: near Robotyne they have overcome the first defensive line but remain about ninety kilometers from the coast, reaching which they would be able to break the land corridor. What separates them is the terrain, the continually expanding trenches, the mines, the Army units and at least two “lines” of defense which are not horizontal but were created to slow down in any way those who attack. «Above» the infantry, with a large number of anti-tanks, there is the umbrella of helicopters and aviation, the two «weapons» in favor of Moscow. For Kiev it would be crucial to conquer the road axis leading to Crimea, but it must get there or in any case it is trying to get closer to be able to target it with its “pieces”.
The maneuver
Everything takes time and you need even more if you try to contain losses. A necessary prudence that contrasts with the Pentagon’s forecasts according to which Ukraine has a “window” of 30-45 days left before General Winter’s vanguards emerge, with unfavorable climatic and soil conditions. Rejecting the negative predictions is the head of intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, the man of surprises, who offers his own scenario: if the mud is an obstacle for the armored vehicles we will advance on foot, there is always a tactic.
Behind the lines
Partisans and teams of infiltrators are always active in occupied areas. The frequency of sabotage, “accidents”, eliminations to create uncertainty in the rear or in Russia itself is high. A few hours ago local sources announced the death of Gennady Dovoboi, a rather well-known nationalist propagandist: he was hit by a car in Donetsk. In addition to the “human” component, there is the use of raids against bases or installations. In this regard, observers wonder how many British/French cruise ships Kiev has at its disposal, long-range systems with which to “go to the depths”. However, the invaders have no problems, as demonstrated by the intensity of the use of Shahed kamikaze drones: local production is added to those arriving from Iran. An arsenal sufficient to continue the campaign on the cities.
Black Sea
In the Black Sea the pattern does not change. Putin’s Navy has strategic control and uses the units to launch missiles. Zelensky’s fast flotilla – made up of speedboats, dinghies and small lookouts – relies on “hit and run” tactics or radio-controlled explosive boats. He couldn’t do otherwise. The latest blow came with the liberation of the Boika Towers oil platform, occupied in 2015 by the Russians, an operation planned by intelligence together with special forces. The spy-commandos combination is the Ukrainian “trademark”, it allows spectacular initiatives to be carried out – even if the impact may be relative – and underlines the message of challenge to the Kremlin.
Recriminations
The testimonies of soldiers at the front are sometimes mirrored. Russians and Ukrainians complain about incompetent commanders, lack of equipment, poor coordination and above all the many comrades killed, maimed and wounded. The stories grew in conjunction with the offensive, a consequence of the harshness of the fighting, often at close range, inside the rows of trees that had become narrow war positions. To clear them they must enter after passing the mined “belts” arranged for defense and leaving the armored vehicles far away to prevent them from jumping into a trap.
The invaders, especially in the south, claim that their cannon fire is less precise while they would be short of reconnaissance drones. Their opponents often insist on the lack of adequate means despite Western aid, underlining the lack of experienced replacements. They are fragments, partial truths, indications of what awaits them. And they wait for leadership. Zelensky hopes to obtain projectiles, rockets with a range of 300 kilometers, F16 fighters (perhaps in winter) and perhaps even Swedish Grippen (Stockholm is exploring the supply of 16-18 aircraft), other tanks, including American Abrams.
Putin pushes for war production while turning to his patrol of allies for material: now it’s North Korean Kim’s turn. His bunkers are full of “shots”, rockets, grenades, perhaps in conditions that are not always perfect but in this conflict we have seen that everything is used.