Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 25 (International Observer) Where will the crisis go? Five questions about the situation in Ukraine
Xinhua News Agency reporter Sun Ping
U.S. military aid arrived in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, NATO dispatched additional warships and fighter jets to eastern Europe, and the U.S. authorized the “U.S. government staff” of the U.S. embassy in Ukraine to voluntarily evacuate Ukraine… Recently, the situation in Ukraine has been highly tense, and international public opinion has highly anticipated.
Since the Biden administration came to power, the game between the United States and Russia over the Ukraine issue has escalated. To sort out the ins and outs of the Ukraine issue, the following five issues have attracted much attention.
What caused the Ukraine problem?
In February 2014, the then Ukrainian President Yanukovych stepped down in the “color revolution”, and the pro-Western government took power in Ukraine and joined the European Union and NATO as a national strategy. Ukraine has an important strategic position. It was originally the focus of the geopolitical game between the United States and Russia. Since then, it has been reduced to a wrestling field between major powers and has fallen into endless turmoil.
The Ukrainian government’s stance toward Russia has become more and more serious after the Crimean Peninsula’s independence referendum was incorporated into Russian territory, the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine (including Donetsk and Luhansk regions) declared independence, and an armed conflict broke out with government forces. Yu toughened up and demanded that Russia “return” Crimea and “stop supporting” civil forces in the Donbas region. The Russian side emphasized that the entry of Crimea into Russia is the legitimate choice of the Crimean people. Russia is not a party to the conflict on the Donbas issue. The Ukrainian government should resolve the issue through negotiations with the eastern civil forces.
In the case of a large number of casualties caused by the fighting in the Donbas region, the international community launched political mediation and established a tripartite contact group on the Ukraine issue (Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and the “Normandy Model” mediation mechanism. The biggest achievement of the “Normandy model” was the new Minsk agreement signed in 2015 on a political settlement of the eastern Ukrainian issue. The agreement reflects the demands of the eastern Ukrainian civilian armed forces to obtain special autonomous status in law. At the same time, the demands of the Ukrainian government to restore control over the Ukrainian-Russian border are also reflected.
However, the new Minsk agreement has not been effectively implemented. In recent years, the centrifugal force of the two “Republics” in the Donbas region has increased, and small-scale exchanges of fire between the local civilian armed forces and the Ukrainian government army in the Donbas region have occurred from time to time. Freeze” state.
Why is the Ukraine issue a hot spot again?
After the Biden administration came to power, it took a tough stance on Russia, repeatedly inciting Ukraine to confront Russia, expressing support for Ukraine’s entry into NATO, and strengthening military assistance to the Ukrainian government. Against this background, the Ukrainian government has repeatedly stated that it will use force to “take back” Crimea and end Russia’s “aggression” in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, NATO has intensified its military activities in the Black Sea region and attempted to deploy its military in Ukraine.
After Russia made a tough response to this, the West accused Russia of deploying heavy troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border in preparation for military action against Ukraine.
Analysts pointed out that the Biden administration is trying to use Ukraine as a pawn to intensify its isolation and suppression of Russia, and at the same time sow Russia-Europe relations, win over European allies, and strengthen their military dependence on the United States. From the perspective of internal affairs, the Biden administration is also trying to use the “Ukraine card” to give Democrats extra points in this year’s U.S. midterm elections. If a large-scale conflict breaks out in eastern Ukraine again, it will be difficult for Russia to stay out of it, and Europe will have to follow the United States to impose sanctions on Russia, and the United States can reap the benefits; if there is no large-scale conflict, the Biden administration can shape itself as a ” Peacemaker” to increase U.S. influence.
What is the trigger for the escalation of tensions in Ukraine?
Since the Biden administration took office, tensions in Ukraine have escalated twice, one in April last year and the other from November last year to the present. The latter is directly related to the increased military cooperation between the United States and Ukraine.
During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the United States from late August to early September last year, the United States and Ukraine signed a series of military cooperation documents. Biden announced an additional $60 million in military aid to Ukraine, including providing Ukraine with a greater number of Javelin anti-tank missiles. In October last year, US Secretary of Defense Austin visited Ukraine to support Ukraine’s entry into NATO.
The Russian side expressed strong dissatisfaction with this. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said U.S. military aid to Kiev could lead to unpredictable actions by Ukraine. He said Ukraine’s entry into NATO would jeopardize Russia’s security, as it would bring NATO military facilities closer to the Russian border.
Believing that it has no concessions, Russia and the West have engaged in intensive diplomatic dialogue and drawn two “red lines” on the Ukraine issue: one is that the West must not accept Ukraine as a member of NATO; the other is that the West must not deploy heavy equipment in Ukraine. Offensive weapons.
The three dialogues between Russia and the United States, NATO and the OSCE earlier this year have not achieved obvious results so far, but the door to dialogue has not been closed, which means that all parties still intend to manage the current crisis through diplomatic channels.
Will a large-scale conflict break out in Ukraine?
It is very unlikely that the Ukrainian government will launch a large-scale military offensive against the civil forces in the eastern Donbas region, or that Russia will attack Ukraine.
First of all, although the Ukrainian army has improved its strength with the assistance of the West, it still does not have the ability to win the military victory in the Donbas region. And Russia will not be unresponsive to Ukrainian military actions.
Second, the West doesn’t really care about Ukraine’s interests, it’s just using it as a tool to weaken Russia, and the US and European countries won’t take risks for Ukraine. The Biden administration’s policy toward Russia is to establish a “stable and predictable relationship” with Russia while containing Russia. A direct war with Russia will obviously lead to the collapse of U.S.-Russian relations. Although Biden said harshly that if Russia “invaded” Ukraine, it would cost it a “heavy price,” but never made it clear that he would take military action to directly intervene.
Third, if Russia takes further actions, it may attract more sanctions, and the Russian side will evaluate it carefully.
However, the possibility of misfires by the parties involved still exists. Bordachev, project director of the Russian think tank Valdai International Debate Club, believes that even if Russia’s security dialogue with the West makes progress, a large-scale conflict may break out in Ukraine, which may be caused by Ukraine’s military action in the Donbas region.
How will the regional situation evolve in the future?
As the structural conflicts between the United States and Russia cannot be effectively resolved in the short term, Ukraine may continue to be at the forefront of the game between the two sides, and the situation may not be calm.
Zhao Huirong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the United States will continue to strengthen the US-Ukraine strategic partnership and support Ukraine in confronting Russia. Since Russia has set Ukraine’s accession to NATO as a “red line”, the United States tends to push Ukraine’s “soft accession”, that is, continuously arming Ukraine and promoting the actual integration of Ukraine with NATO, but not granting its membership, so as not to over-stimulate Russia.
At the same time, Ukraine will become more anti-Russian, and Russia-Ukraine relations may continue to deteriorate. The Crimea and Donbas issues are the dead end of Russia-Ukraine relations. Neither side will give in. There will be constant friction around these two issues. Russia will adopt a flexible foreign policy while vigorously responding to Ukraine’s anti-Russian words and deeds, striving for its own interests in struggle and dialogue.
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