According to the monitoring of the business agency: this week, the average price of first-level sugar was 5,794 yuan/ton, and the average price of first-level sugar was 5,812 yuan/ton on weekends. The price increased by 0.31%, and the price increased by 7.17% compared with the same period last year.
Market analysis
Sugar：
In October, China’s sugar forecast data for 2021/22 will not be adjusted temporarily. The output for 21/22 is expected to be 10.31 million tons, and the import volume is expected to be 4.5 million tons. Sugar prices in the new year constitute weak support.
With the start of the northern hemisphere crushing season, India and Thailand exports will become the world‘s main source of sugar for trade. In the fourth quarter, India’s sugar exports have become the main factor affecting raw sugar prices, as the country’s new-year output remains the same as last year, with no major changes. Whether India’s sugar exports depends on the domestic price. At present, its lower domestic sugar spot price is about 32 rupees/kg (equivalent to 19.1 cents/lb), and MSP is 31 rupees/kg (equivalent to 18.5 cents/lb). If the price of raw sugar is lower than this price, it will be difficult for sugar factories to export, which will support the price of raw sugar. Therefore, raw sugar will be supported at 18.5-19 cents in the fourth quarter, and 22 cents will be under pressure.
Market outlook forecast
The short-term domestic sugar industry inventory continues to be high year-on-year. The imported sugar volume in September is approaching the peak of last year. The short-term supply pressure remains unabated, and it still takes time to destock and curb the trend of sugar prices.
(Source: Business Club)
Article source: Business Club
Original title: Sugar production decreases and prices rise
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