An Islamic State branch has claimed responsibility for the attack in Moscow that killed more than 80 people. Analysis and scenarios by Marco Di Liddo, director of Cesi (Centre for International Studies)
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It is the worst terrorist attack in Russia in the last 20 years.
Attack in Moscow with over 100 dead. A branch of the Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for the attack on Moscow and US officials confirmed the claim shortly after, reports the New York Times.
“Type of attack in the style of Bataclan in Paris and Westgate in Nairobi, which tends to make one think of the Caucasian jihadist galaxy of Daesh – Caucasus Province (Wilayah al-Qawqaz)”, commented the director of Cesi, Marco Di Liddo.
Here are facts, comments and insights.
THE ATTACK ON THE CROCUS CITY HALL IN MOSCOW
Armed men in camouflage gear stormed the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk, a concert hall northwest of Moscow, opening fire mercilessly on spectators. The structure is very well known and is the same one where the Miss Universe competition wanted by Donald Trump took place in 2013.
The attackers also threw grenades or incendiary bottles and shortly afterwards the entire building turned into a fire.
At least four men, wearing camouflage suits and armed to the teeth, broke into the hall where a band called Picnic was supposed to perform. The attack began simultaneously in the auditorium and the foyer, where people were still queuing to enter the hall. The videos recorded chilling images, men shooting at close range, even bodies lying on the ground. The concert was sold out and it is estimated that there were over 6 thousand people inside the venue when the flames broke out which then caused the roof of the building to collapse.
THE ACTIVITIES OF RUSSIAN LAW ENFORCEMENT
It took firefighters hours to put out the fire in the room which also houses a shopping center and is located just outside Moscow, in the city of Krasnogorsk. Sergey Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow, has canceled events that were supposed to take place this weekend in the Russian capital, which is dotted with billboards reading ‘We are in mourning’ on the streets.
The police are still looking for the terrorists and in the meantime they are analyzing material evidence, the weapons and ammunition abandoned on site, but also the recordings of the video surveillance cameras, which have been seized.
ISIS-K IS BEHIND THE ATTACK IN RUSSIA
The United States – writes the newspaper Now — gathered intelligence in March that the Islamic State-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, the group’s Afghanistan-based branch, had planned an attack on Moscow, according to officials. ISIS members are active in Russia, a US official said. After a period of relative calm, the Islamic State has sought to increase its external attacks, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials. Most of these plots in Europe have been foiled, leading to speculation that the group had reduced capabilities.
INFORMATION COLLECTED BY US INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES
American intelligence agencies have a “duty to warn” potential targets of dangers when they become aware of them. The United States had warned Iran of a possible attack ahead of the twin bombings in January that killed dozens and injured hundreds of others at a memorial ceremony for former Iranian general Qassim Suleimani, who was killed by a four-year U.S. drone strike. years ago. Western intelligence agencies had gathered information about possible planning by ISIS-K to bomb the service. As in Russia, ISIS-K claimed responsibility for that attack.
WHAT THE FSB, THE RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, DID
About two weeks ago the FSB said it had eliminated a cell of the Afghan branch of ISIS that was planning an armed attack in the capital while the US had warned Moscow of the possibility of an attack.
US WARNINGS ABOUT POTENTIAL ISIS ATTACK IN RUSSIA
The United States “had a number of information and signals about a possible ISIS attack in Russia since November.” This was reported by intelligence sources to Cbs. Russian President Vladimir Putin had dismissed Western warnings about possible terrorist attacks in Moscow as “blackmail” just a few days ago. The US Embassy in Russia had published an alert on its website on March 7 advising American citizens to avoid large gatherings in the Russian capital, including concerts, for the next 48 hours due to possible terrorist attacks. A message that was also taken up by the British Foreign Ministry on its website.
PUTIN’S POSITION
Last Tuesday (March 19), the Tass had reported that Putin – speaking at a meeting of the Federal Security Council – had defined the West’s warning about possible terrorist attacks in the country as real “blackmail”. The Russian leader had recalled the “recent provocative statements by some Western official structures on possible terrorist attacks in Russia” and had commented: “It seems like real blackmail and an attempt to intimidate and destabilize our society”. Adding: “The West has practiced the use of all kinds of cross-border radical terrorist groups in its interests and encouraged their aggression against Russia.”
RUSSIA UNDER SHOCK BY THE ISIS ATTACK
The country is in shock and remembers the attacks by Chechen Islamists: the one in a theater in Moscow in 2002, which caused over 170 deaths; and after Moscow’s repression of Islamist insurrections in Chechnya and Dagestan, the 2017 suicide bombing in the St. Petersburg subway in which 15 people died.
MARCO DI LIDDO’S COMMENT
He wrote about Twitter Marco Di Liddo, director of the Center for International Studies (Cesi):
“Attack at the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk, north-west of Moscow. Type of attack in the style of Bataclan in Paris and Westgate in Nairobi, which tends to bring to mind the Caucasian jihadist galaxy of Daesh – Caucasus Province (Wilayah al-Qawqaz).
The Caucasian jihadists may have taken advantage of the concentration of Russian forces, resources and attention on the Ukrainian front and on the pro-Ukrainian saboteurs present on the territory of the Federation.
However, the possibility of right-wing extremism, which has grown significantly in the last decade also in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, should not be excluded a priori, even if it is decidedly residual as a hypothesis.
Beyond the tragedy of the deaths of innocent civilians, considerable political and image damage for the system of power a few days after Putin’s victory in the farcical elections and in a historical moment marked by war (in Ukraine and Belgorod) ”.
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