Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday appointed Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov as protection minister, changing Sergei Shoigu, who had been minister since 2012. Belousov is an economist by coaching and has no army expertise. His appointment was perceived by each Russian and Western analysts as a sign that Putin is prepared for an extended warfare in Ukraine, and wishes a protection economist to commit state assets in an excellent bigger and extra environment friendly method. within the warfare effort.
Andrei Belousov was born in 1959 and has a comparatively brief political profession, in comparison with the majority of at the moment’s Russian ruling class, which started taking public workplace within the Eighties and Nineties. Belousov, alternatively, spent an extended interval as an economist and authorities guide, earlier than being appointed deputy minister for financial growth in 2006. From there, nevertheless, he started a fairly fast profession and for a brief interval, in 2020, he was additionally prime minister .
Over the course of his profession, Belousov grew to become certainly one of Vladimir Putin’s most trusted males, who gave him more and more delicate duties. In 2020 Politico he even indicated it among the many potential replacements for Putin (though not among the many most definitely) within the occasion of the loss of life of the Russian president.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, certainly one of Belousov’s most essential duties as deputy prime minister has been to supervise elevated army spending and the enlargement of the army business, notably drone manufacturing. This is what Belousov will most definitely proceed to do as Defense Minister, on a bigger scale.
The indisputable fact that Belousov has no army expertise isn’t seen as an impediment to his work. First of all as a result of appointing a civilian with out particular expertise as Defense Minister is a quite common observe in lots of international locations, even democratic ones: it isn’t the Defense Minister’s job to compile warfare plans. Secondly, even his predecessor Sergei Shoigu, though over time he joined the military and at the moment is a basic who exhibits himself in public with a uniform filled with medals and insignia, in actuality he has no particular army coaching: he’s a civil engineer, who started his profession within the building business.
Then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in the course of the army parade on May 9, 2024 (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File)
Come he stated a Foreign Policy Mark Galeotti, a Russia knowledgeable who works for the British consultancy Mayak Intelligence, says in wartime the position of the protection minister in Russia is to be sure that the generals working within the military have all of the assets crucial to hold out the trouble warfare: it’s a position “midway between monetary supervisor and political consultant”.
Belousov, who in accordance with all proof is a succesful economist and an especially environment friendly supervisor (some outline him as a “workaholic”, i.e. an individual obsessive about work), is able to finishing up this position: he’ll deal with the financial half, and of doing in order that the Russian economic system is reoriented to assist the warfare effort, whereas the management of army operations will stay with Valery Gerasimov, the chief of workers. Shoigu, the outdated minister, may also retain some affect on army affairs, as a result of he has been appointed secretary of the Russian Security Council, a army and strategic advisory physique.
According to analysts, Belousov’s appointment exhibits that Putin is prepared for a protracted confrontation with the West, and that he’s getting ready to subjugate the Russian economic system for this objective. «Putin’s precedence is warfare, and a warfare of attrition is gained with financial assets», he stated al New York Times Alexandra Prokopenko, analyst on the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
This position was additionally acknowledged by Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, who, asserting Belousov’s new position, recalled how Russian army spending went from 3 p.c of GDP to six.7 p.c in the course of the warfare: these monumental assets financial “are essential, and require particular administration”.
Andrei Belousov and Vladimir Putin in 2023 al Kremlin (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo through AP)
Belousov has two different traits that might make him appropriate for the position. According to numerous individuals who know him, he isn’t a corrupt official, a minimum of “by Moscow’s requirements”, as he advised Foreign Policy Konstantin Sonin, a Russian economist on the University of Chicago who has identified him for 20 years. For this purpose, certainly one of his duties will most likely be to cut back the extent of corruption within the armed forces, which stays very excessive. Only final month Timur Ivanov, deputy protection minister, was arrested for accepting bribes.
The different attribute of Belousov that Putin most likely appreciates is that the brand new minister has no private energy base. Having entered politics comparatively late, Belousov has at all times stored a low profile and has not had the chance to complement himself excessively or create a community of individuals loyal to him, as lots of Putin’s collaborators have completed, beginning with Shoigu himself. Belousov, subsequently, regardless of having obtained a place of appreciable energy, mustn’t represent a political menace to Putin.