The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the talks between senior Russian and Ukrainian officials at a sensitive moment
At a regular press conference on March 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin was asked about Russia’s domestic economy and foreign trade, which are facing great difficulties. As an important partner, the CCP can provide economic support or assistance.
Wang Wenbin responded that China will carry out normal economic and trade cooperation with Russia on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect.
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian Deputy Defense Minister and the Chinese ambassador to Russia held talks on March 18.
March 18 was the day when U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on the Russia-Ukraine war. The timing was quite sensitive, and the main purpose of the high-level Sino-Russian talks attracted attention.
Wang Wenbin said, “Last Friday, Chinese (Chinese Communist Party) Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fumin, and the two sides exchanged views on Sino-Russian bilateral relations. It is the work of diplomatic envoys stationed abroad to carry out normal exchanges between people, and there is no need to over-interpret it.”
The CCP will continue to use two-faced tactics
The New York Times reported on March 21 that U.S. officials warned that Putin wanted to secure economic aid, military equipment and troop rations from Beijing. U.S. officials may have leaked this information to embarrass Putin and the Chinese leadership.
U.S. officials also worry that the Chinese government will continue to use its “duplicity” tactics, urging calm in public on the one hand, and secretly supporting Russia and cultivating relations with Putin on the other. Some of the U.S. government officials noted that China has been treating North Korea this way: while calling on the North to limit its nuclear weapons program, it provides North Korea with energy and other support to make up for the country’s shortfalls caused by U.N. sanctions.
The report pointed out that Xi Jinping made no suggestion in the call with Xi about what role China might play in ending the war, saying instead that the United States and NATO should talk to Russia to resolve the crisis.
Xi also used a phrase he and other Chinese officials often use when blaming the U.S. for the problem: “The person who unlocks the bell must also be the one who ties the bell.”
Deng Yuwen, an overseas independent scholar, wrote in a DW guest commentary column on March 21 that, judging from the press release released by the White House, Biden warned Xi Jinping of the impact and consequences the CCP will face if it provides substantial material support to Russia. However, Xi Jinping appeared to ignore Biden’s warnings.
Deng Yuwen wrote that Xi only reiterated Beijing’s principled stance on the situation in Ukraine during the call, and at the same time used the old Chinese sayings “a slap won’t ring” and “the bell has to be tied to unlock the bell”, admonishing Biden, Russia and Ukraine. The United States is at least partly responsible for becoming what it is now.
Xi Jinping went on to say, “As a leader of a major country, … we must consider global stability and the production and life of billions of people. Implementing all-round and indiscriminate sanctions, it is the common people who suffer. If it is further escalated, it will also trigger global economic, trade, financial, Serious crises in energy, food, industrial and supply chains have made the already difficult world economy even worse, causing irreparable losses. The more complicated the situation is, the more it is necessary to remain calm and rational.”
Deng Yuwen said that what Xi said was not only a criticism that the escalation of sanctions against Russia by the United States and the West would lead to a serious global crisis, but also a “counter-warning” against Biden’s warning, that is, if the United States and China are unwilling to stand The US imposes secondary sanctions on China, which may have consequences globally that the US does not want to see.
The New York Times report also said that the White House hinted in public statements that the United States may impose so-called “secondary sanctions” on China. But unlike Russia, China’s market size and foreign economic clout mean that punishing it could have a bigger impact on the global economy, so governments and businesses are likely to lobby heavily against such sanctions.
CCP fears ‘losing everything’
U.S. President Joe Biden warned in a video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 18 that any “material support” provided by the Chinese Communist Party to Russia would be subject to consequences.
According to the Voice of America report, Chinese scholars generally believe that it is difficult for Xi Jinping to “accept all the warnings” from the United States. The CCP is worried that if Russia loses the war, the CCP will lose its barrier against the West, and the West may launch similar sanctions against the CCP.
Zhao Tong, a scholar at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, said it would be difficult for Beijing to fully comply with Western demands, especially refusing to provide economic aid to Russia.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, also believes that the CCP’s stance on not joining the sanctions against Russia is quite firm.
In addition, Zhao Tong believes that the outside world expects the CCP to exert its influence on Russia, and it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will stop the war, because the CCP government does not subjectively have the confidence to influence Putin’s war decisions. The CCP can only change its course in the decision of military aid to Russia.
Zhao Tong believes that the positions of China and the United States are sometimes confronted, and there may be a moment when a showdown must be finally reached, which makes it difficult for the CCP not to worry. The sanctions that the West is now dealing with Russia may one day be used on the CCP, which makes China and Russia even more. Therefore, they have the same disease, but they have come closer.
The CCP has chosen a side
China Global Television Network (CGTN) anchor Liu Xin commented on Twitter on March 18, saying, “Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?” (Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?” Help me hit your friend so I can focus on hitting you later?)
John Ross (Luo Siyi), a researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, commented when retweeting Liu Xin’s tweet, “The United States hopes that China (CCP) will accept the US sanctions on Russia, etc., so that the United States can weaken Russia, and then the United States will turn around and attack. A more isolated China.”
The official Weibo “Strategic Security and Arms Control Online” of the Arms Control Department of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reposted Liu Xin’s comments and wrote “the truth”; Jin Canrong, an international relations scholar of the Chinese Communist Party, also said on Weibo, “That’s what happened. .”
Deng Yuwen believes that once Beijing realizes that no matter how hard it tries, it is impossible to bring Sino-US relations back to the “correct track” that the CCP believes, and it will not be able to give up Moscow. From this point of view, it is logical for Beijing to choose to stand with Moscow.
However, for Beijing, after all, China and the United States are not completely torn apart like Russia and the United States. They cannot ignore the warnings of the United States because of Sino-Russian relations, anger Washington, and completely tie themselves to the Russian chariot. This is not in line with the CCP. national interest. Beijing may explain this to Moscow and obtain the latter’s understanding, but Beijing will not abandon this old friend in Moscow’s “time of adversity”. From this perspective, it can be said that Beijing has chosen a side.
Beijing seeks G20 summit to avoid Ukrainian war
In the past week, Beijing has worked intensively to remove the Ukraine war from the agenda of the G20 summit.
According to the “South China Morning Post” report on March 19, Beijing is lobbying Indonesia to ask the issue of the Ukraine war to be removed from the agenda of the G20 summit in Bali. Beijing claims that despite the serious situation in Ukraine, it should not be discussed at this year’s G20 summit.
Beijing asserts that the G20 is a platform for addressing major economic problems facing the world after the catastrophe and should stick to its core mission rather than be held hostage to Western agendas.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi started those efforts in a phone conversation with his Indonesian counterpart last Monday, stressing that the G20 should be “the premier forum for international economic cooperation.”
In a phone call last Wednesday, Xi urged Indonesian President Joko Widodo to stick to his plan to focus on post-coronavirus economic recovery at the Bali summit.
“The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is about to be held. Beijing does not want any issues in the foreign policy area that could disrupt the tranquility and stability of domestic political events,” said Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C., quoted by the South China Morning Post.
George Magnus, an associate research fellow at the Oxford University China Center, also believes that Beijing is reluctant to discuss Ukraine in multilateral forums because it is increasingly difficult to be “neutral” on war issues.
“Frankly, it must be an embarrassment for Beijing right now to allow itself to be so closely associated with and complicit in Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine,” he said.